March Madness 101: Breaking Down Bracket Math

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March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Davidson College Associate Professor Tim Chartier discusses using math to determine NCAA brackets on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

14. "math bytes." u.n. your fellow students worked up algorithms on brackets and you placed them in 97% -- 97 percentile.

What are the parameters?

We use a strength of schedule.

So we adapt message from the bcs, so it is a linear system that has 350 equations and 350 unknowns.

But the part that enabled it to do much better is we enabled people to weight factors that -- that they believe are predicted.

The schedule is what you used.

The part that got the 94, 95 or than 90's percentile was putting in the ability to actually determine what part of the season do you think in time is predictive.

Momentum matters a lot.

That is the idea.

Color of jersey?

[laughter] what were you surprised by when you were looking around trying to figure out what to weight the heaviest?

We actually only did it to see if the method was giving predictive information and the 97% was the very first time we did it.

Rick heitzmann from georgetown -- an ugly year for him.

Jump in with the other choices.

I think -- i am a huge fan of university of florida, and my dad was a professor for over 40 years at villanova and grew up there, so i like villanova and i hope they still get a one seed.

I think there is a good chance.

Right now florida, arizona, and villanova are all high on the brackets but we will not know until sunday because we use all of the data through sunday.

How do you predict the cinderellas?

Some of them, if it is highly improbable and it is just that magic day, we will not pick it up because that is the randomness of sport.

Excuse me, you are in the 94th -- 97th.

What are the limitations of using math and figuring out the advances in the tournament?

Where does math not help?

If you are looking for the billion-dollar bracket and have it perfect -- warren buffett's one billion-dollar wager.

Anyone who can fill out a perfect record.

With my students, i will mention to them, at certain places you want to flip the result.

Because there will be other information you can put into it, like the coach -- to the coaches matter?

We don't put it in but we are -- we have methods we share with people and each year -- proprietary data.

Trying to picture as an economics guy at princeton, i had to use regression analysis.

You have blocks of data, 350 columns across and however many rows down and you cross correlate all of that stuff.

There are two versions of it.

One of them is that way.

350 by 5,000 for every row.

Has caesars called you?

How many millions of dollars are you worth to las vegas?

A lot of people bring it up and they ask why -- you don't have to write a textbook.

Bring down a house -- the house.

You could be in a katy perry video.

There is a new goal.

Tim, thank you so much.

Can you go back -- comeback?

Bracketology 101. our twitter question, how do you pick your bracket for march madness?

Tweet us @bsurveillance?

#march madness -- dart and dartboard.

How is that for old score -- old school?

The jerseys?

Bright yellow?

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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