Jobs Data Measures Pre-Shutdown Momentum: Zentner

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Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Ellen Zentner, senior economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses why the delayed September employment report still matters to the markets and why she sees economic damage from the shutdown to be temporary. She speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Stanley -- we have been shut down, default, debt ceiling.

We have forgotten about where the economy is.

Good morning.

We actually have something else to talk about.

The tuesday jobs they -- do you care?

We care because, even though this is seemingly old data, pre- shutdown, it will help us gauge the momentum in the economy going into the shutdown.

How much tailwind.

20 years off the bloomberg terminal -- about 200,000, the pain of 2000. here is the huge plunge.

We are really not up to speed, are we?

We would like to get close to that 200,000 mark.

Over the last 12 months, we have averaged somewhere between 150000 and 180,000. it is doable because our labor force participation rates are lower, we don't have to create as many jobs to get the employment rate job -- rate down.

Everyone is trying to tally up the damage on the economy from the shutdown and the near breach of the debt ceiling.

Is this going to be emperor -- going to be temporarily short lived?

I think it will be temporary.

Government shutdowns tend to impact that quarter only.

The rebound happens in the same quarter.

We have gone through this so many times -- the layers of uncertainty.

One thing i am encouraged about, what were we arguing about.

Were we arguing about certain tax incentives going away, arguing about whether taxes increase for consumers?


there is not a waiver households to translate that into the bottom line.

There is not uncertainty for businesses.

I don't expected it to have a lasting impact on capex, either.

What is your call for gdp in 12 months?

Are we up 3%. write-in the middle.

-- right in the middle.

Around 2.5%, that is not recession.

Ellen is with us.

David will join us in the next

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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