Is Putin Going to Try to Take Over Other Countries?

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March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Stratfor's Lauren Goodrich and Bloomberg's Margaret Talev discuss the Ukraine crisis with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Is there anything to de-escalate?

What exactly is escalated right now?

He has annexed crimea.

That is done.

What is next -- what is left?

It is pretty much done as far as crimea is concerned.

Each side has given a symbolic gesture.

Russia has symbolically -- a region already a part to begin with.

The west has given symbolic sanction.

We are still at symbolic movement from russia and from the rest -- the west.

We are at a standoff at this time.

Class with you think?

Is there anything behind this big stressful talk and huge statements coming out or can we all chill at this point?

The sanctions are really measured and are a lot more for effect.

Friend and business and political associates of president clinton.

The u.s. and europe are trying to make the case they are already beginning to have some impact.

The benchmark index is down 12% this year.

The real impact comes if europe decides it is worthwhile to trigger some of the sector sanctions on the energy sector on weapons.

The problem is that will have an impact on the western economy.

Beyond punishment and making it feel bad he did it, how do you measure the impact?

President putin said he would not go further in the ukraine and has already taken over crimea.

Step back from what?

When they want to de-escalate a situation, how does he do yes go a something -- that is over?

They do not think it is over.

Are waiting for more signs, not just militarily but rhetorically as well.

It is a matter of time.

They did not see president putin broadcasting this before hand and then it was all a sudden insight.

From the white house's perspective and europe's perspective, there is a matter of trust and timing.

They do not think there was a chance of salvaging this in time . no one forecast the violent demonstrations where the democratically elected prime minister was forcibly ousted.

These kinds of violent episodes beget other violent episodes.

One was kind of sanctioned by the u.s. while the other has been completely attacked.

What do you see happening forward?

Is vladimir putin going forward to try taking other countries?

The problem with anymore military moves is that it is difficult with the ukraine.

It is a large country.

With logistics, they are something russia knows very well.

Russia has fought wars in the country before.

Russia at this time does not see it as very viable to go into the eastern ukraine and escalate the ukraine militarily.

The most important question right now is what is going to happen with the new ukrainian government.

The government right now has two months until election.

Russia wants to know if the new government can be cohesive enough to move and integrate further in the last or can it remain paralyzed?

It cannot live with a ukrainian government that wants to further integrate to the west.

Right now, instead of military moves, russia is speaking about politics.

Is there any concern vladimir putin is going to go further?

For example, in belarus, lithuania, moldova, which we heard a lot of this old, cold war hawks talk about it.

Any concern from the white house in that sense?

There is some concern.

I was with vice president biden last week and the leaders articulated to him they were not concerned about their home state of play.

Beyond the immediate concerns that are important, are some sort of bigger picture big game stuff.

What does russia do vis-a®-vis iran and syria?

The white house has all of these compounded and conflicting interests all in play.

President obama feels like he has gotten himself into a position where the u.s. best play is to galvanize the international community and remain flexible.

Class a great point.

We have other problem areas around the globe.

It is definitely not going to be now.

How do you see those things playing out?

Syria or iran?

Russia has a lot of tools in its toolbox.

Russia is willing to ramp up tensions in the problematic areas for the united states if the united states and other western powers continue to further integrate inside of the ukraine.

Everything comes back to the ukraine in question.

Other key places moscow is watching is georgia, the other two countries the european union is looking to integrate with.

If the west makes further steps, russia will have no problem using its other tools in the toolbox.

I am talking about syria, iran, what you are saying is the white house thinks it can use it in a sense to its advantage by galvanizing support because of what russia has done in crimea from our allies, for example the rest in nato, europe, etc.. class going forward, what the u.s. and the president is hoping is that they can use this to prod some of the countries toward energy independence in russia rather than getting the cheaper deal in energy.

That is trying to make lemonade out of lemons.

The u.s. would probably not want to deal with this at all.

A lot of it has to do again with oil and energy.

People have been talking so much about what if we released our petroleum reserves, which would only be a short time fix.

What if we could convince saudi arabia -- what if we could yet europe to rely on natural gas.

Is that a big push?

It is a push on many levels.

You will see president obama in saudi arabia in several days.

That has entered the picture now in terms of ukraine and russia.

Go back to the united states and talk about domestic oil production.

The argument for this up until now has been that this is about u.s. independence.

Now we are talking about whether we can play a role.

It is really complicated and has turned around a lot of the narrative the white house thought it would pursue.

What about vladimir putin?

Is he concerned about selling his fuel energy in keeping the price up or feels like hitting the mattress right now?

Our energy prices are key here.

The problem is with tensions over the ukraine, russia has -- the investments and capital flights out of russia is massive at this moment.

$70 billion left russia in just the first quarter.

Russia can handle this right now.

There were 140 billion and russia was not able to handle that capital flight because oil flights -- oil prices were around $30 per barrel -- if the oil price falls, the price will contract significantly.

Thank you.

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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