Iran Focuses on Nuke Deal as Iraq Turmoil Spreads

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June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ian Bremmer, president and founder at Eurasia Group, talks with Tom Keene about the violent unrest in Iraq, Iran’s talks with the U.S. as it focuses on a nuclear deal and Russia cutting natural gas supplies to Ukraine. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

With the u.s. jacob ? the deputy foreign minister came out and said there was no need for cooperation between iran and the u.s. on iraq.

There is no reason not to see negotiations but the iranians do not want to cause an level of distress with the saudis that could make it harder for them to get the deal done.

The iranians are interested in finishing a deal soon, by july 20, on nuclear issues.

Which will allow them an enormous amount of economic benefit.

Anything that distracts from that is a problem in the near term for airan.

Engagement, sure, substantive action is a bridge too far.

How close are we to sectarian or civil war and iraq?

I think what we are seeing is a move towards disintegration and fragmentation in iraq.

Isis forces have said that they are moving towards baghdad.

There is a serious fight there.

The reason why all of these armed forces in the iraqi army half blood away in mosul, tikrit, and other cities in the north, they are in sunni territory.

They are overwhelmed in terms of numbers.

Isis is well trained but they have a local population that does not support them.

It is dangerous for them to stick around on the ground.

That is different from the situation in baghdad.

I do not think there is a danger of baghdad following.

There is a danger of the cursed him -- there is a danger of kurdistan becoming autonomous.

There is a great danger of an islamic citysunni caliphate that brings the iraq and syria wars together.

That is the concern for europeans and americans.

If we did not have iraq, we would have ukraine.

We can worry about that, gazprom moment.

7:30 this morning.

How critical are hydrocarbons to the immediate debate for kiev, further eastern ukraine, and for moscow?

Not much in the near term.

I think the markets are over eight on energy generally.

Most of iraq's oil comes from the shia south, not disrupted by violence.

Ukraine and russia have ongoing disputes.

It is not the first time they have cut it off, it is in the summer and the ukrainians have stockpiled.

The russians don't want to cut it off to the europeans and the europeans will engage in talks between the two sides.

Right now, the bigger issue is that you have another 50 ukrainians dead, shot down by a military transport plane shot down.

And poroshenko, the ukrainian president, there is a military presence he cannot respond to because the russians will escalate.

I think the energy story in both iraq and ukraine is a bit of a sideshow.

The instability in both of these countries with nobody from outside the region willing to step in, that is the story long-term for the markets.

Ian bremmer, thank you.

We will check in with you later.

You are missing out on our guest host for the hour is richard clarida from pimco.

He is also professor of economics at columbia

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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