U.S. Military Likely to Surprise Syria: Falkenrath

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Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Falkenrath, former National Security Council director, Leslie Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Helima Croft, managing director at Barclays, comment on Syria's suspected use of chemical weapons. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Richard falcon off -- falkenwrath joins us.

What you think about what you heard from john kerry in terms of tone?

What does it mean in terms of the next step?

He spoke very firmly about one thing is that the u.s. government is convinced that the slot use this against his own people which is a line president obama famously used last year.

He has boxed the u.s. in.

There is no wiggle room in.

We have seen the images.

We have seen what is available online.

How are we driving this?

People have the symptoms of a neural logical attack.

This is suggestive of the nerve gas stare and -- sero.

They do not say these things lightly.

They will basically make this case looked solid.

They're very comfortable with it.

They were comfortable with a smaller scale usage last year.

What does this mean in terms of the next step for our military?

Are we going to go in at this point?

I think we probably are.

These things are never a certainty.

He is a very cautious of man.

He is inside his gut against military action.

Even though everything is being lined up, the use of force, i will not believe it until i see it.

I do not think it will happen all by it self.

If he goes in with force it will be limited, intense, and i believe packaged with some diplomatic and humanitarian initiative.

The diplomatic initiative would maybe be a long the lines of opposing a cease-fire.

The humanitarian initiative would be not only more help for the refugees in jordan and turkey but to help the humanitarian crisis inside syria itself.

If he does it, it will be big.

Would it be a coalition?

It should be.

In this world, most of our partners talk bake into almost nothing.

I expect the minimum contribution from them.

It should be enough to give us international cover.

What does it mean for our relationship with russia?

You had john kerry saying we have proof.

Rush is saying you do not have proof.

Where does that leave us?

Russia is the key of their country as far as serious concerned.

They have more influence over syria including iran.

We have to stay close enough to russia in this a difficult situation to make a diplomatic initiative feasible.

It does not work unless moscow tells assad you have to buy this.

You have studied to the intricacies from the countries in the region.

How do we try to get the u.s. and russia on the same side ?/ it is going to be a tough challenge.

Russia has made it clear they do not want military intervention.

They do not want another libya.

It will be very difficult to bridge this divide.

What is the one thing that president obama or secretary kerry could do to win over vladimir putin?

My gosh.

I do not even know.

I do not see russia coming on board with this.

What is the timetable for the coming days?

It is up to the president to decide what he wants to do.

These typically happen in august.

He is no external force on his hands, making it go faster.

He will try to get the russians on board.

They now have three years of experience and a total failure.

It looked to me like at the beginning of the campaign it was to paint rush into a corner so that they win go in use military force against serious they will have said although it is illegal they did everything they could to bring the russians around and in the end it was impossible.

This violation had to be answered.

Do you think we'll hear from president obama before going into syria?

The military will want to remain an element of surprise.

It will be packaged.

They will have a set of regime targets either military intelligence or targets they will hit overnight.

We will hear from them after the explosions have happens.

Let me go back to the russia point.

How could we get russia to cooperate at this point?

I think there's only one way to do it.

We have to make plausible to the russians that we are prepared to keep some a la white government -- alowite government and some assad government as the deal.

We have got to include them in any future for syria.

I think that is possible now.

People will not like it because they have been screaming for two years now to get rid of assad.

That is the only way to get the russians on board.

I have to disagree with my friends.

I do not think it is possible.

They have used chemical weapons.

We believe they had.

We do not necessarily have proof.

The secretary has said that it was self-evident.

This is a regime of people who have killed their own people that have waged this unbelievable civil war.

Out of all the possible replacements, none of them distinguished themselves either.

The rebels are also budget butchers.

That is one of the hallmark of this charming civil war.

They all kill their own people.

If we were to suddenly accept assad in the a la white as part of the regime, that may bring the russians in with us.

How can president obama possibly do that?

In the first month, if you want to end these things.

Otherwise the killing will go on.

Chances are the killing will go on.

The killing goes on.

Unless you make some kind of a deal to combine the moderate sunni rebels with some elements of the assad government against the jihad the islamist.

That is the only chance of a settlement.

It is a long shot.

Some reaction from lawmakers.

What are you hearing on capitol hill?

We have looking at what actually starts coming out after what secretary kerry said.

The white house said they have been consulted regularly with lawmakers.

They are out of town right now.

They have been very involved in this debate from the beginning.

John boehner said assad has blatantly crossed the red line that obama talked about.

He called on obama not only to consult congress before they make an action but also to talk to the american people.

This is not something that would likely happen before in action -- an action.

It is interesting to see how they react.

People have been very frustrated of the pace that the administration has taken with decisions on form policy, especially with syria.

I do not know if john carries statement will be taken as a call to action or face a this is not enough that we need to move asked her.

It certainly makes sense.

It sounded like a call to action.

He was very emphatic.

What is your take?

It sounded like a call to action.

It will be interpreted as a call to action.

How will this affect the markets?

Syria only produces around 350,000 barrels.

It is not a big producer.

We are watching the iraq situation very carefully.

In terms of spill over into more turmoil.

Do you think it will breed more turmoil?

It depends on what we do.

A limited package of airstrikes it is back to the status quo relatively quickly.

If we try to impose a no-fly zone or escalate the type of arms we are giving to the rebels, that breeds further conflict and violence and further instability.

I want to talk about a call to action.

The white house really wants to act.

They put the president out.

When they want to buy time and work a multi pronged initiative, they put the secretary of state out to talk and explain it to by the president some time and space to figure out how they want to conduct the policy.

They are waiting.

They are watching.

They are studying.

I hope you really does fix plaintiffs.

One of the big drawbacks has been he does not lay out a policy and a strategy.

Here is what we are trying to do.

Here's how we're going to achieve it.

It is very important if he is to

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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