Housing Sales Level, Prices Rise in 2014: Miller

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Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Jonathan Miller, President & CEO of Miller Samuel, discusses housing availability in New York City and the environment for the housing market in 2014. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)


Wbf preferred.

Wood-burning fireplace, thank you.

Let's talk new york city.

How tight is tight in new york city?

Inventory is at the lowest level it has been since we've been tracking it in 2000 and.

We are building more units and we are going to see a lot of product.

It is targeted at the luxury segment, the top 10%. one bedrooms for 2.8 million dollars.

It is not going to address the other 90% of the market -- i have to rip up the script.

What are the annual taxes on two-putting million dollars?

$100,000. we have to move away.

Maybe you can afford me.

I think that was some charm over there.

There it is.

There is the hook.

Let's get back to the national story here because, look, we have definitely seen some positive data nationally.

One thing looking forward, you mentioned this qualified mortgage restrictions that come onto lenders books.

Will that basically cool down the housing market?

The way a look at 2014 as i think it is going to take six months for lenders to kind of figured out.

They are incentivized to go qm because it shelters their exposure to risk that they want to make sure the consumer is qualified to get that mortgage, and their insulated somewhat from litigation down the road if it defaults.

Will we see the data?

I think we will see a leveling off of sale activity compounded with the fact i think interest rates will rise a little bit.

Here's a chart on the existing homes.

We look at this each and every day.

What is your production for next year?

That is the denver chart.

Let's look at the existing median home chart if we can bring that up.

There it is.

A little bit of recent role you mentioned earlier.

What are we going to see over the next 12 months?

I think we will still see the price growth.

I think sales growth will level off.

But price growth will continue to see but it will probably be, i'm guessing, have the rate as what we saw in 2013 for the simple reason case-shiller 20 existing home sales for you're talking nine percent to 13% depending on the metrics.

But none of the fundamentals like income rising rates, unemployment, and tight credit support that kind of price growth.

Do you see 2005 and 2006 as a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly, or is the framework of you and the pros like you that we will someday return to that effervescence?

I think what is very different from 2005 and 2006 is credit is the polar opposite.

That then, if you had a pulse or could fog a mirror, you can get financing.

Today, lenders essentially are not in the business of lending unless they're kicking and screaming.

It is a very different condition.

I think that is somewhat of a reality check that keeps us from flowing into a bubble.

I have to tell you, when rates spiked at the end of the spring, i was relieved he cause we were really -- because we were -- we were heading in that direction with too much broth.

I think it takes some of the edge off.

When you look at housing, i want to see a sustained period of growth, not a short, quick hit, which i feel 2013 was.

Will we have a few more of those leaving moments in 2014 where rates will spike up and take some of the froth off the market?

Who knows?

I don't see interest rates spiking.

I just see as the economy improves with a slow gradual rise in rates, which reduces affordability and takes the edge off the market.

Rates maybe spike higher, maybe gradually increase, but at the end of the day, it is historically low.

What is really going on?

Why aren't people pulling the trigger?

I think people have been pulling the trigger this year.

That is why we have seen -- but there has been a slowdown recently.

Recently, but i think we had a surplus of activity, an unnatural amount of activity caused by the spike in rates were people rushed in that were on the fence to take advantage of it.

I think now we have exhausted that and we are getting back to where we would have been if we did not have that burst.

I think 2014 is going to be -- we're going to see improvement in housing, but nothing like -- boring.

You are wrong last year, maybe you will be wrong this

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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