We will be "on the markets" once again in 30 minutes.
? . . live from pier three in san francisco, welcome to the early edition of "bloomberg west," where we cover the global technology and media companies that are reshaping our world.
I am emily chang.
Our focus is on innovation and technology and the future of business.
Let's get straight to the rundown.
The z-10 phone was supposed to save blackberry, but now the company is taking in nearly $1 billion write-down on the device.
The results were called very disappointing.
The world's largest internet search engine turns 15 today.
Hear what it was like in the early days of google from a special roundtable and whether google's best days are still ahead.
And he is a filmmaker who ate only mcdonald's for 30 days and "supersize me." now morgan spurlock has a new app meant to show you exactly what you were eating.
First, i want to begin with breaking news, and the senate vote out of washington, d.c. the senate has voted 79-19 to pass a short-term spending bill.
I want to get straight to peter cook, our chief washington correspondent, standing by with an update.
What is the latest?
What we just had with a procedural vote, emily, that advances the temporary spending bill.
79-19 was the vote.
This was the opportunity for ted cruz and others to stem anyway and try to force senate democrats and the administration to accept a defunding of the president's signature health care law.
It paves the way for a later vote in the next hour or so for a new temporary spending bill, one created by democrats that will keep the government funded until the middle of november.
It removes the language that defunded obamacare.
It will send this legislation to the house of representatives for john boehner and house republicans.
Do they accept this clean bill and keep the government operating past that deadline of monday at midnight?
Or do they decide to make changes, headed back over to the senate, and keep on the table the risk of a government shutdown?
The two chambers must agree on the exact same legislation to avoid that situation.
That is the drama playing out right now.
Hauser balkans will make changes, they will send it back to the senate, the clock is ticking.
The question at that point is how do we reconcile those differences because they will not accept changes.
He chemical broke -- the key chemical -- critical vote happened than half an hour.
What is your understanding of which way the houses leaning in terms of what is next?
Our understanding is that house republican leaders are meeting behind closed doors, trying to satisfy all the various elements for the next move.
Our understanding is they are coalescing around the idea of adding once again language to this spending bill that democrats were not like, and specifically a one-year delay in obamacare.
They think they will be able to pick up a couple of democrats in the senate.
I spoke to senator dick durbin before the vote.
He insist absolutely no way, democrats are unified, they will not accept a delay in obamacare.
They and says on a clean spending bill.
That is why we are still looking at the very real possibility of a shut down on monday.
All right, peter cook in washington, we will be back with you throughout the day.
Thank you so much, peter.
Now to blackberry, giving us some more -- a more complete picture a week after releasing for luminary votes -- results.
Today, sales fell 45%. the ugly posted a $965 million loss, including a $934 million write-down for unsold phones.
Sales were particularly bad in library's home market -- the americas.
They tumbled 56%. the ceo said in a statement we are very disappointed with our operational and financial results this quarter.
All of this coming just days after fairfax financial, blackberries largest investor, said if they can line up the financing, they can purchase it.
Now joins us hugo miller who covers blackberry.
Is there a silver lining anywhere you?
If there was, it was perhaps a there was no more bad news and today's announcement.
The numbers were essentially the same as what was preannounced a week ago.
I think if anyone took consonance -- took confidence was these stock was up a little bit.
There were no more per -- no more surprises, no resignation of the ceo or another write-down for another part of the business.
So silver lining is hard to say.
Someone made remarks today that i think he gave the stock a boost today.
He said that we have more than enough equity needed to make this deal happen, but again he is refusing to name any of his other partners, and that is just making investors nervous.
He of course is the ceo of fairfax financial.
They have maybe $4.7 billion to take blackberry private.
What do we know about potential partners, and also the cofounder of blackberry, who we discussed could be very interested in helping him.
As we reported early in the week, they have been reaching out to some canadian pension funds, but so far none are committing to his so -- so- called consortium, and none of them are expressing an interest in buying or teaming up to buy the whole company.
They are only really interested in parts of the business.
As for mike, prem watsa told us that mike is not on board yet, the operative word yet may imply that he is considering throwing in his stake, which is a sizable , just over five and percent, throwing in his stake with prem watsa, but so far we think he is on the sidelines.
Hugo, the numbers and turns of the device sales are so dismal.
Three point 7 million handsets.
Apple sold 9 million iphones just last weekend.
Do you see the device business going away?
I spoke to at other analysts who said look, the blackberry, the crackberry, the handsets as we know it will probably cease to exist.
Certainly the single biggest indicator is the size of the write-down.
Their second or third attempt in the history of blackberry to make a touchscreen phone has gone nowhere, and the z-10 has been a clear failure.
The one thing we should hold a resignation on is the updated version of their keyboard device.
There has been give or take, three months of sales to really gauge that's fairly, but the queue-10, the one that puzzled a traditional keyboard that appeals to the blackberry faithful, has perhaps another two months for us to really give it a proper verdict.
But all momentum is going against the company, and we have this classic scenario in which no one wants to commit to buy something if they know that the so-called warranty or the repair potential for the device is not going to be there two or three years down the line.
All right, we will be printed -- continued to follow this potential buyout.
They have six weeks to do due diligence.
5'5" weeks, i guess.
Hugo miller who covers blackberry for us in toronto for bloomberg note -- bloomberg news, thank you so much.
Still ahead, google turns 15 today.
You can also watch us streaming on your phone, tablet, and at bloomberg.com.
? this is "bloomberg west." you can also watch us streaming on your phone, tablet, and at bloomberg.com.
I am emily chang.
Today is googles 15th birthday.
Few companies are as ubiquitous in everyday life as the innovation company is.
How does google keep its innovative edge without getting too old?
Our senior west coast correspondent jon erlichman has more on that from l.a. i never quite thought of it like that, but google is quite senior around these parts.
Yeah, it depends who is behind the spin.
Larry page, the ceo, likes to describe google as a teenager, which technically is true.
I guess when you compare google in age to of the other companies that we talk a lot about.
Half a dozen years older than facebook it if you take the combined age of twitter, kendrys, and instagram, you get one google.
We talked to a number of high- level executive at google who do truly feel like there is a startup mentality inside the company, and a lot of times they come back with a couple of reasons.
One, they can move quickly on new stuff, which is not easy to do when you have nearly 45,000 employees.
Number two, we talk i'll the time about how they are requiring businesses.
Not obvious businesses, necessarily, but small teams of young, smart, innovative thinkers.
That is part of the way that the get this innovative story that continues to roll on.
With all of these thousands of employees, how does google keep that start up field?
Isn't that what larry and sergey are going for?
They want the company to feel like a startup that is always working on the next big thing.
They love to talk about the moon shots.
Speaking to people about how they stay young for the next 15 years, a lot of them said that has got to do more of that.
They already do a lot of that purity power of google is that you have got these incredible resources, and you match that with this willingness to say hey, let's go try something incredibly difficult, whether it is self driving cars or something else.
Where google may have less success is when there are moves -- you think of google plus, and most people probably look at google plus as google trying to do what facebook is doing, arguably unsuccessfully, and then maybe google ends up looking like a bully.
On a lot of levels, when you compare the google story and the innovation story at google, many would argue that they are taking bigger risks than facebook is, and arguably even apple, emily.
All right, jon erlichman, our senior west coast correspondent, thank you.
We're going to talk about this much more.
Googles 15 year anniversary and how the company has evolved over the years.
We turn to some early googlers.
Focus on the international expansion.
Now joining us from miami.
And heather carnes is -- was googles for the employee.
She was hired as an hr manager by cofounders larry page and sergey brin while they were graduate students.
Heather come i want to start with you, the story behind your hiring is so funny.
How did larry and sergei come to you, and what was your job in those early days?
Well, larry and sergey medley when they were graduate students in the severe sinus the barbiturate i was a graduate administered her, so they needed to come to me for every seven or academic life.
But i think what impressed them the most is when i administered exams, i carried a large old wet, and i would crack it over my head.
That is unique.
So when you started working at google, what was it like?
Were you working at a house?
You can imagine how it felt to have left a job in san francisco at a big company in the financial district and to pull u into a driveway and work out of the side of someone's home.
I pretty much came across the thought many times -- what am i thinking gekko what am i doing here you go --what am i thinking ? but i had a lovely office and it stands as one of the best offices i have ever had.
You wore a lot of different hats, right?
Tell me about what your actual responsibilities were.
Well, i not only hired the first 200 employees, but i was the receptionist, the janitor, the orderer of m&ms, the organizer of epic parties, and i am also the voice on the phone system.
That is still true today.
All right, ben, i want to get with you.
Started at google several years later, but you helped google go global.
You started in europe, what was google's european operation like when he started there, and how did you grow at?
I joined in january 2007, and it still felt like a very scrappy startup.
Even though by then they had google maps, search, google video, they had not acquired youtube.
It felt like a scrappy start with a few hundred people.
There was not a strategy for how to make money.
The structure was pretty chaotic.
The average sales that's of -- pitch of google to advertisers was google made out of legal.
It was very unprofessional but a fun place trying to change the world.
Really they hired me to help professionalize in europe, to really -- but how did you do that?
How did you turn google in europe to a business?
The first thing we had to do was to say for all of the products that google has, what is the best way to make money, what is the right ad unit, what kind of advertisers would be interested?
Once you say here is how we will try to make money in or youtube or maps or mobile, to then turn it into an organized strategy, here is what we need from the engineers, sales, marketing, etc., and here is what we will do country by country, with agencies.
So it was very much for specializing primarily the revenue-generating part of google.
All right, ben legg, heather carnes, googles employee number four, we will continue this conversation after this quick break, talking about google turning 15 years old today.
We will be right back in just a moment.
Welcome back to "bloomberg west." i am emily chang.
We turned back to our coverage of google's 15 year anniversary.
I want to bring back ben legg, the former coo of global europe, and heather cairns, employee number four, she hired the company's first 200 employees.
Of those first employees, so many people went on to bigger and better things, people like marissa mayer, now the ceo of yahoo!, she was employee number 20. i would love to hear the story there in terms of her hiring and how that happened.
Actually, she was an intern first.
I believe she with a masters student at stanford, and probably also one of the early females.
I was the only female for about six or so months, so it was really lovely to have more female company.
What was it that you guys saw in marissa?
What was she like other young masters students, and why did you think she had the potential to be someone great at google?
Well, marissa was clearly brilliant, she really did stand out.
I pretty much did hr screening of the employees, and i was not able to ask the engineering questions, but i do remember she was top shelf.
She was terrific in every way.
And you, i understand, also set google's early hr policies, the dating policy, some of those policies still stand today.
We know a lot, we have heard a lot of dating goes on at google.
Tell us about the policy and how it works.
Well, this is 15 years ago, but i did write a policy regarding dating, and that is if employees became a couple, then we left it to the couple to decide who would transfer or leave the company.
That was the policy.
I have to ask you this question because obviously we have been covering reports that the cofounder surrogate brain -- sergeiy brin has had an affair with someone else at google.
What is your take on this and whether something like that should be allowed and how it should be handled.
I feel pretty removed from the situation, so i do not have much to add about it.
I do not know much about it.
All right, ben, i want to get to you and talk about the advertising side of things as you now run your own advertising company, you help companies target ads on different web companies like facebook and twitter.
How big a threat today is facebook to google?
I do not think it is a big threat.
First of all, they are very different companies, so if you think about why people go to facebook, very often it is because they are bored and they want to see what their friends and family are doing.
So the main people advertising on facebook are the big brands who want to sort of raise awareness of what they do, and game companies because they want to entertain bored people.
Where people go to google to find something, often because they want to buy it.
It is very different from both the press -- consumer perspective and a sort of advertiser, budget perspective.
For most advertisers network with google and facebook, they will not switch money from one to the other.
They will spend money on both.
The question is asked, are google's better days behind it or are they still ahead, what do you think, ben?
I think behind and ahead.
I have been very impressed have google has managed to keep in it -- innovating, and i've been in touch with many friends at google, and some of complained that they have big-company bureaucracy, but compared to other big companies, google is innovating like crazy.
Driverless cars, google fiber, will glass, even things like android is a phenomenal success.
They really do seem to keep knocking on more than one home run.
All right, thenben legg, former coo at google, and heather cairns, early employee, thank you both.
It is time to look at what is moving on the markets every hour at 26 and 56 after.
Our senior markets correspondent julie hyman is in new york.
with investors looking at what is going on in washington come a let's take a look at what is going on with stocks.
We have seen some selling today, and it does continue.
In terms of the inimitable stocks we're watching, let's take a look at a couple of them.
United continental first of all, stock falling after the world's largest carrier is facing lower fares overseas.
That is the benchmark revenue for evan -- for airlines.
And shares of the high-speed data storage system plunging after its first day of trading after having its initial public offering at nine dollars.
More "bloomberg west" up next.
This is the early edition of "bloomberg west." i am emily chang.
You can also catch us at our later time, 3:00 p.m. pacific, 6:00 p.m. eastern.
Now, for your bloomberg top headlines, british online game maker king.com has reportedly filed for an ipo in the u.s. according to "london daily telegraph." it is keeping its ipo confidential under the same rule twitter is using to keep its number seal.
Facebook is considering running ads on external mobile ads and websites.
Facebook is running a second test to see how the process works.
Become a seven goal is to improve relevancy and add marketing.
If the vessel, it could add another revenue stream for facebook.
And taiwan smart folder hd is -- smartphone maker htc is selling back to the hedge fund maker.
It wants to sell it it's 25% stake two years after htc today 51% stake at beats for three hundred million dollars.
Htc shares have sent plunged 90% . i want to turn back now to the developing story out of washington where the senate is going through a series of votes that could result in a shutdown over the government or the senate has just voted to remove house law defined language.
Next up, the final votes to fund the government through november 15. megan hughes joins us with the latest.
How could this impact the tech sector?
Let's start with the latest because that is complicated her day just got to the final vote, this is final passage of the house spending bill.
Before the final passage, they made significant changes to the house spending bill, so as you mentioned, they did vote to strip the language that would have defunded obamacare, which was key for house republicans.
They also limited the amount of time that this would find the government cared so originally, it was through the middle of december, now it is really middle of november.
That is what they are voting on now.
If this passes, emily, when it goes back over to the house, house speaker john boehner has said he would not pass what is called a clean version of the bill with the obamacare language stripped from it.
The big question is what happens next over in the house.
Government funding runs out on monday night.
Megan, could this impact the ipo market?
We are all talking about twitter, which recently filed to go public.
Could twitter be impacted?
Let's talk about the time i because it is not good for twitter.
We are talking about a potential government shutdown october 1. then we have also that the debt ceiling debate coming up on october 17. will these battles slowdown the booming ipo market?
Will that impact twitter pricing into the market?
Take some lessons from the last standoff, august 2011, stock markets actually started to tumble two weeks before we were said to be borrowing limit, then they have the budget battle, which led to across the board cuts, sequestration third and the credit downgrade.
Stocks took a huge hit during that between july 21 and august 10. the dow doan was down 2000 points, a 21% lost their the number of ipo's did plummet.
Companies canceled or postponed $8.9 billion worth of ipo's in the third quarter.
I reach out to twitter's washington office to see if they are monitoring this, if there are concerts.
So far i have not heard anything back.
Thank you, megan.
Markets aside, what can you tell us about the bigger picture here?
What does it mean if the government shuts down?
What does tuesday look like?
The big talk in washington is drawing the line between what is essential and what is not essential.
So what is deemed not essential -- i arrest personnel, tax refunds may not be -- irs personnel, tax refunds may not be processed, park rangers, active military members, they will stay on national security of course still a priority, mail delivery, that will go on, social security checks, medicare payments, those continue to go out there in total, 800,000 workers on furlough.
It will certainly have an impact on the economy.
All right, megan hughes, thank you so much.
We will of course continue to cover this story throughout the day out of washington.
While google is known as a search giant, it has also come to dominate video through its acquisition of google -- of youtube.
But it for $1.6 billion in 2006. 65,000 new videos were uploaded to the site daily, now more than 100 hours of video are uploaded to youtube every minute.
As google celebrates its 15th birthday, how has youtube and effectiveness of business ? we have someone who helped build the strategy after the company bought it before you to leaving him along.
Was it like for you in those early days?
It was like getting willy wonka's golden ticket.
You came into this place and you realize while at that time the public really thought of google as a search engine, that there were all these other projects be done.
Gmail had not been launched, google maps, they were being supported by the smartest engineers and the most advanced and -- technology at the time.
You knew at the time you had a golden ticket?
I do not care did not tell you much.
They decide trust us -- they just said, trust us.
Been youtube came along and you went to work at youtube.
At worst, they do not know what they were going to do with it, right?
I think the big commitment that the founder of youtube and the founders of google made was to not assimilate youtube.
It was not going to be, another building on google's campus.
And still in a separate space . is.
It needed to be a little bit separate to develop its own sense of self.
At one point did the pressure cannot make money go for a long time, youtube do not make money.
For the first few years, eric schmidt would come by and say just focus on user growth.
In about year three, he said i wanted you to focus on money.
How did you do that?
At the time, we had built up a tremendous amount of traffic, so we started to focus on the add product.
Making money and youtube was not about making money in the google pause's pocket, is about making money for the video makers.
You only recently left.
In your view, how has it changed?
When i started at google, it was very much a monoculture.
It hired one type of person.
Recently, google's head of hr says a lot of the messages they made about gpa's mattering at all these other hiring techniques actually did not correlate with the success that google.
One of the most recession -- refreshing changes is google is more diverse in terms of understanding different types of intelligence.
Artists, not just engineers.
Some things in terms of the big idea, the big mugshots, that has not changed.
Has not changed.
Youtube i think was an example of bringing one of the moon shots in-house.
Now you have sergey creating projects that 50 years ago would have been in research labs, but today are only coming out of google.
What do you think of google glass?
There is no doubt in my mind that i will have different devices over my body that are much smarter then they are today.
Would you wear those everyday?
Wife's first, situationally like people use go pro when they do extreme sports or an atwater you travel, but more and more one people figure out the use cases, we will have the smart devices.
What about the serious health company where looks like they're trying to cure death essentially?
I think the google hires great engineers, so improving the human condition, being a mission driven, and something that larry and sergey have always been motivated by kurt so so does not surprise me.
How confident are you that google's best days are ahead of its rather than behind it?
The last few years have told the story.
I'm a big i -- big believer in founder priority.
You have to look at larry the last two years, i think he has taken google by the collar, shook in, and said we have 100 years left to do amazing products -- project, let's do more things.
All right, hunter walk, i am sure you could talk about.
Now at homebrew, partner at a new venture firm, thank you so much for joining us.
The documentary "super size me" is coming to your smartphones sword appeared we talk to morgan spurlock about his supersized nutrition app next.
Welcome back to the early edition of "bloomberg west." i am emily chang.
You can also catch us at our later time, 3:00 p.m. pacific, 6:00 p.m. eastern.
It is hard to forget, the hit documentary "super size me," a lot has changed since i was first and theaters, and -- including the introduction of the iphone and apps.
My partner jon erlichman its nla with more in today's new hollywood.
There is an app for everything these days.
In all seriousness, we know that people can find restaurants pretty easily on their phones now.
The super size me app angle is what about the calorie count of any of those restaurants you might end up going to?
Merkin's or lack -- morgan spurlock joins us now from new york.
Thank you for joining us at "bloomberg west." give us the back story to what led to the creation of the "super size me" app.
I cannot tell you on the table to the movie affected them and their, and it was a conversation i was having with a friend where we said there should be one place where you can go and get all of the end -- nutrition information of these restaurants.
He said, why do you not do that?
And i said we should.
We tied them with the movie "supersize me," and we launch the app.
It is amazing.
Do you think the movie would be different if we live in a world where there was all sorts of apps, smart watches i could tell you the calorie count, nike field isn't all that stuff?
Sadly, no, i do not think it would make a difference at all.
We are a nation and a world people who continually make bad eating choices.
If we continue to arm people with information, maybe we can chip away a little bit.
Speaking of technology, you were an early adopter of the new platforms were getting your product out.
Hulu, you worked with yahoo!
Has there been a bit of a competitive advantage if you will by partnering with some of those players early on?
Up with us in a position of understanding how that marketplace works a lot better than other people, i think.
You are dealing with smaller budgets, tighter production times, you have a lot more creative freedom.
I think it has enabled us to adapt a lot quicker.
The last time we spoke, you highlighted they be tighter budgets, but larger ownership, is that still the case?
Absolutely can we're doing a show right now with yahoo!
That just launched called "losing it with john say most," where celebrities come on a talk to john about their first magical sexual experience, and the beautiful thing about that show, we own half of it.
John and i co-own a show with yahoo!
Really quickly, the one direction documentary that you did, a huge hit at the box office, i am sure at the beginning some people said morgan, what are you doing, do you feel validated giving the success of that film?
I think a lot of it were questioning why did i want to make a movie about the biggest women in the world, and you to make a movie and 30 with a sturdy that a studio that has now grown on -- gone on to gross $60 million worldwide.
Nothing people are questioning that anymore.
All right, morgan spurlock, the man behind many projects, including "super size me," emily, back to you.
All right, jon, thank you, we will be right back with more of "bloomberg west" in just a moment.
Welcome back to "bloomberg west." i am emily chang.
The senate is early voting to pass revised spending measures.
I want to bring our chief washington correspondent peter cook, who is standing by.
Megan hughes and washington.
Peter, i will start with you.
I know we are close to the end here.
And fact, the official tally is being read even a few and i are talking right now, and we know already the democrats had the votes they needed.
They only needed 51 to pass this now revised spending bill and send it back to the house would like peter, -- the house what peter, the house has passed a bill 54-44 for the stopgap spending measure.
Partyline vote, it is exactly what we cited when we began this week.
That is the biggest frustration here.
It has taken all week to get there.
Now, the drama continues.
This spending bill means the government will continue operating under this legislation through mid-november, but it removes the language, defunding obamacare, but the ball back and i just spoke to james lankford of oklahoma, asked him what do you guys owing to do with this.
He made clear they do plan to make changes to this bill, he says they are not sure exactly what those changes would be.
They are going to meet behind closed doors to more morning.
He said we're going to give the senate plenty of time to respond.
That is a real question there, democrats might not agree with that statement.
Some of the options on the table include delaying obamacare for one year, perhaps another option on the table will be removing the subsidy for members of congress on their health care.
That would be controversial, of course.
All of these ideas have been rejected by democrats already, which is why we are still talking right now about a realistic chance for a shutdown on monday at midnight.
It is when the government runs out of money.
Congressman langford said he remains convinced that there will not be a shutdown, but he is not sure what the compromise will be to get us to that point.
All right, so this is in the house hands now.
Megan, i wanted it to you.
Speaking earlier but what a government shutdown looks like, what could the impact of this be across the country?
One thing i want to comment about, peter just mentioned, they want to give the senate plenty of time, but we are talking about monday night at midnight that the government would run out of wanting -- of funding.
That means the shutdown could start as early as tuesday.
Important thing to point out that stood there is a difference between what is considered essential and nonessential.
Active military, for example, those members of the military would continue working.
We have 800,000 federal workers on a furlough.
A major disruption.
Male would keep going, flights, tsa workers, they would keep working, 800,000 workers would be on furlough, a huge impact to the economy.
Now, peter, what is the timeline here, how are by our, how do you expect us to proceed?
The house is going to remain in session through the weekend.
You can be sure that a lot of staffers not very happy about that.
But that is the reality.
They will meet behind closed doors tomorrow.
A vote could happen as soon as saturday or sunday.
It looks like we have lost peter and megan there.
We will have more "bloomberg west" in just a quick moment.
We're talking about the senate voting now to pass a stopgap government spending measure but is now in the house hands.
The house will be voting on this through the weekend.
We are waiting for house speaker john boehner to make some sort of remarks sometime over the next few hours, but again the vote now in the house's hands, and we are waiting to see how the house will proceed.
We will be right back with more "bloomberg west" in just a moment.
Look about, i am emily chang.
Coming up on the late edition of "bloomberg west," we take a look at the last 15 years of google.
Google employee number nine will join us to talk about where the company has been and where it will go next, that is at 3:00 p.m. pacific and 50s -- 6:00 p.m. eastern.
Bloomberg is on the markets are to senior markets correspondent julie hyman is in new york.
How are the markets reacting to this news from the senate?
So far, we are not seeing a lot of movement in the markets based on this.
We're still in the red.
It really has not budged since before they had liked him out again that the senate was passing the funding bill because now goes to the house.
That has probably been the expectation that all of this would come down to the house.
Markets again not much changed from where they were from before when this came out.
We are not going to turn to the world of hotel stocks.
Take a look at the potential merger and acquisition activity in this industry.
This is china pose the most -- richest man, chinese billionaire, says he is on the hunt for a hotel company.
I want to bring in someone with ser cap the markets.
Let's start with what is going on in the hotel business more broadly.
He reasoned that this german is interested in hotels is because the business has been performing pretty well.
Talk to me about the thunder middle, first of all.
Absolutely, thank you for having me on the program.
When you look at the industry, both in the u.s. and globally, what you find is the trend seven extremely good, at least in the last three years, you've seen three or four years of conservative -- consecutive growth, and that is the metric for the industry over the last three years, and then you go and look forward for all the signposts of where our industry would go, all signs are very positive.
We have economic growth, it and if you believe in the economists, we could see an acceleration next year and the year after.
Some are calling for peak