And our guest host for the hour, matt,. bill, let's start with you.
We are seeing a bounce in gold.
Is this all is, a reflective mood after falling so much?
We are seeing a short-term correction.
We have been extremely bearish on gold since it broke 1500. what we are seeing, especially after last friday the, it depressed gold lower.
In the shorter term you want to see the market close against the lows.
Rallying back, 1221, a major point of resistance.
That said, we will continue higher in the shorter term.
1255, 1268 on a closing basis.
Above 1268 we will likely consolidate back to resistance.
We are bearish, but we are smart about it when we will watch the volatility in this market ahead of earnings that started this week.
People were fighting value to hedge risk at 1200. gold still had a small safe haven value at this level.
We should mention -- you watched 1255 around those levels last week, we hit them earlier.
Matt, i want to bring you into this, you painted a slightly more cautious scenario, but you are not looking to gold for safety?
That is what they focus on, but when you look at gold as far as commodities of many people's portfolios, when you look at this i agree that there will be a lot of volatility in almost all asset class is.
It is a great trade it, you have to be very nimble and i could see a lot of federal debt negotiation.
You are looking at a lot of situations where gold is going to be very reactionary.
It is going to be a situation where i think there is going to be an outside chance of returns on both sides.
Our firm does not invest in it, but if i did i would be very choosy.
Bill, your long-term bearish, the reasons you just heard matt mentioning, and the outlook for many currency traders that the dollar will strengthen, even though it has had a short-term pullback.
Likely not good for gold either.
The thing is that the u.s. dollar has now risen against the euro and the yen since gold was at 1700. the spread -- the fed is not easing at the rates they have before.
Japan, europe, britain, they are looking at a faster pace than us, falling down the totem pole.
Gold price in dollars will not be the same that we once had.
Inflation, the fed has been trying to target a 2% inflation rate and we have not been able to get there.
Inflation is not to worry, deflationary is the worry.
After the short-term bounce correction we're seeing.
What kind of timetable are you looking at for that?
-- whites by the end of the year, maybe sooner.
In this market gets above 126 a -- if this market gets above 1268, that could be a correction, but we are not playing for the long side and are hedging ourselves into the positions that we hold.
I am curious, you are looking at long-term bearish position, shorting gold, i am curious how you would do it.
There are other futures.
Announced in market's roughly around 10,000, there is no better way to do that.
It is exactly what a trader does.
You do not have access to 24 hours either.
You have to do it with futures.
There is also a smaller contract that you can use as well.
That is really the best and only way that i believe you can do it.
If people feel they need some sort of safety or perceived safety and they are not going to gold, is there anywhere else that you see they are going to go?
A record amount of cash has moved out of those bond funds.
Some people are going into stocks and others are putting it into cash.
When you look at investors right now, especially the baby boomer and retail investors, they rode the bond rally for so long, it will be a shock to them.
Even though they have been watching as for a while?
Using logic, it is one of those things that they enjoyed for so long that they are going to stay as a recommended gold come out of bonds.
I expect that to continue as the interest rates start to rise.
Bill, thank you so much for
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