You are feeling bearish, talking about a 15% decline in socks.
Do you still feel that way?
Rex i said it if we don't see the proper of forms out of china, proper of forms out of japan, and if we have the same type of behavior in washington we witness in october.
So, at the very least, we've seen some reforms of china.
Some people are calling them the most substantive reforms in decades.
On saturday, it looks as if china has had substantial reforms.
Whether it's ownership of land, being led by market instead of policy, those are very big changes and we will have to see how it plays out.
I would say overall, it appears the policy changes in china are good for ford growth.
In the united states, we have movement towards a small deal and hopefully that small bipartisan deal that will happen sometime next week or the week after thanksgiving, if that happens, we won't have the noise surrounding the words the fault -- it may lead in the future to a true grant bargain.
I'm not suggesting it will, but i think washington has woken up to the note that they were not good guardians, they were not doing the right thing.
And the notion that you wanted some type of deal in which we will see some resolution and have an extension of our debt ceiling and we will have the means to work on a more larger, comprehensive plan.
If that happens, the marketplace is fine.
Is giving you confidence that the marketplace has woken up?
The shutdown was just a few weeks ago, but you save politicians are starting to listen?
I was there and visited the men and women participating in this dialogue and i came away more confident that they heard the backlash and they want to make sure this is a responsibility they have two find a bipartisan fix to these problems.
I think they heard loud and clear from the american population that we are not going to tolerate this type of behavior.
You are there to improve the company and make it a utter company and more importantly, we have told them the noise that is coming out of washington impairs job creation and capital expenditures.
As executives of businesses with all of this great uncertainty, you are not just going to hire more people or accelerate factories and plants.
You are not exactly pounding the table, but that's not your style.
You don't sound very bearish to me.
I said it may fall 15%. so we have seen some of those things, how do you feel?
I still feel worried and we still have more things to learn three while we have seen the market rebound again, we are seeing better behavior and good policy action from china.
But let me talk about what's going to happen between now and years end.
We had a 25% increase in the s&p. typical pension funds have a very formulaic behavior, how they manage the mix of bonds, stocks and alternatives.
Lacks asset allocation?
With the idea we've had a 25% in equities and they didn't do it he thing, the equity holdings are up 10%. so we are going to start seeing pension funds start selling equities into year end and buying bonds.
Everyone is talking about the great rotation.
The reverse rotation.
When you see 16,000 on the dow jones, it should be a joy in selling, not buying?
This is not a major component of the market.
You have to understand if people are going to have a formula as to how they do asset allocations, they have to stick with it.
They have enjoyed a rally and they will rebalance.
There is going to be some pressure into year and because of this balancing and that will mitigate some of the optimism i have related to policy changes.
I think we will have a noisy quarter.
One thing we are doing at blackrock is we are surveying our big pension funds.
What are their intentions into the year?
Are they going to be aggressive in rebalancing or are they going to have 50% equities and 30% bonds?
Enough of them plan to do some rebalancing -- we have a very large pension plan because of the rally we have witnessed, they are back to 100% of assets and liability match.
Pension fund is 100% funded and they are thinking should we sell 100% equities and by government bonds?
Just so the asset liability is permanently match?
Last week, you are meeting in washington -- talk about monetary policy for a bowman and do you think they have an understanding of who quantitative easing is helping?
Quantitative easing is and help in american people.
You are confusing congress and the fed.
Let's understand -- we listen to chairman elect yellen.
She still believes that quantitative easing has more benefits than costs.
Lexa do you?
I personally believe we have more structural unemployment in this country and the world trade -- and in the world.
If you think there is more structural unemployment, then you would say quantitative easing is not the fix.
It has to be more fiscal reform, job creation and things like that.
That is the problem right now.
The federal reserve has come -- has said we don't have structural unemployment and their policies are standing by that decision.
I believe we have much greater structural unemployment and it's growing faster that technology is rendering some jobs obsolete.
So we are at a time with the technology revolution where jobs are being lost and it takes time for that recycling of new jobs.
No different from when we had the agricultural revolution.
It takes time for those people to find new jobs.
By your reasoning, this reason that there is more structural unemployment and more jobs not coming back in america, i have to imagine you are kind of scared by the talk coming out of some quarters of the fed that instead of the 6.5% jobless target, it should be 5.5%? what i'm frightened of his i see more deflationary pressures because of the job losses.
We are witnessing a job issue worldwide now.
We talk about the job issues we have in this country and we are aware of the problems that we have.
We are seeing the same circumstances impact brazil and china.
I was at one company a few weeks ago in china -- this is a big auto company with a factory building automobiles.
A number of years ago, they had 10,000 employees.
Today, they have 1200 employees with 30% more output.
This whole revolution of the factory for all companies worldwide to be competitive, they are going to more robotics and efficiencies.
The implication is it's more severe for brazil and china because they have millions of people leaving the agrarian life and moving into the city because technology has transformed agriculture more than anything and you have these millions of people moving into these cities.
But the problems we have now is it just takes so much more manufacturing to produce the same amount of jobs because -- you had -- it's so much more efficient.
We have a job creation problem worldwide and it is growing.
There's a commentary in china that one of the manufacturers for apple computers and other things, they are putting more and more robotics in and they are going to have a need for 300,000 fewer employees because of all the robotics.
300,000? they employ millions.
I believe we need -- getting back to my original premise, we need strong governmental hollis he to create jobs worldwide today.
It can't just be on the back of central banks worldwide.
The incremental return is very diminished.
The federal reserve said in their support that they are going to keep rates low because we are not seeing action out of congress.
I believe we need strong policy moves in action in europe to japan and the united states.
Before we take a quick commercial break, you said the smartest posture for an investor to take is -- if you are not deep into retirement, is to go 100% into equities.
It has made people an extraordinary amount of money in the past two years what would you do now?
I would remain.
I think we could have some setbacks, but for those sitting in cash today, i would say we are going to see a short term downdraft and i would use that as a buying opportunity.
I have this whole view about longevity, aging and our liability is getting longer and you are not going to be able to get the necessary nest egg owning bonds.
Would you say i told you so?
I don't do that.
Larry fink says it is still time to be 100% in stocks.
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