ECB Needs Smoking Gun to Implement QE: Moec

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Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- In today’s “Global Outlook,” Gilles Moec, co-head of European economic research at Deutsche Bank, discusses the impact of currencies on the European economy and the need for further interest rate moves by the ECB. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

For the first time since september 11. it seems to me that we are almost trapped in europe.

The yen is weakening.

The dollar remains weak.

Here in europe, the ecb is not doing their job.

It is not their mandate, but when do we start seeing europe suffer.

And is the french gdp a cause of the current situation?

It is too early to say.

The waeeakness in french gdp.

There is a weakness in frfance.

We have another installment of this wekanakness.

What is true is that the eurozone has an issue . the strength of the euro has an effect on the need to rise interest rates.

We already have an example around 2004-2005, when the fed was tightening.

The ecb kept rates unchanged, creating a nice differential between the two zones.

It took several months before we started to see some rebalancing of the currency.

So it's the kinds of things which takes time to build.

It is not directly determined.

It is not easy for the ecb two directly talked on the currency.

There is a differential between the fed and ecb.

It seems like it will be -- we cut interest rates, fine.

Are we running out of tools in europe?

When you look at the feather japan, we will always be stuck in the middle.

Yes.

I think the ecb has managed lately to move a bit.

With a surprise that came with this, the rate cut.

The ecb is toying with other measures.

Talking about the possibility of presaging assets.

A la ecb q.e. they will probably try in the next few months to create in the market a sense that there is much more in the arsenal than we thought.

We did not expect the ecb to increase interest rates.

They are much more sensitive to shorten the rate.

And they are readier than we thought.

Paul krugman thinks that we should go with interest rates in europe.

Is it a possibility?

Is there will, or a way to do it?

The constraints that the ecb a much higher than what they have at the fed or the boj.

We need the smoking gun to get there and we do not have a smoking gun for now.

A weak figure for inflation for october was the smoking gun that the doves could use to convince the majority to give us a rate cut.

To give more conventional measures, something more.

The weak gdp for q3 will add in favor of these arguments.

The key data that could get them to -- is a la ecb q3. if we continue to see a weakness in critical information into 2014, it is much easier to argue that there is deflation.

It is the very destruction of money, which is basically what negative education is.

Then you create the smoking gun, and you can convince others.

On the strength of the data we have now, probably not.

It has to get worse to

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.

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