Clearly, on the long-term basis, you have a very negative outlook.
It doesn't mean you should not belong on the markets today.
What are you doing investing-y z? not a lot.
I don't want to hedge, but i probably have the smallest positions i've had -- i had some big decisions earlier in the year.
I'm sort of sitting and waiting.
There is a lot of uncertainty over who the next fed chairman will be.
What their attitude toward the diminution of qe will be.
You have the whole serious thing.
-- syria thing.
I like to be patient and when i see something, go little bit crazy.
I just does anything right now.
A lot of people have told me and stephanie it doesn't matter who the next fed chairman is, the policies aren't going to be that much different.
I take it you disagree.
It totally matters.
When you think back of what paul volcker, alan greenspan, and ben bernanke have made to markets, it is pretty naiàve to say the next fed chairman won't matter.
It may not know why it matters and i may not know why, but it is a really, really important appointment.
Do you have any idea how either of those two candidates would run the fed and how an impact he or she would have on financial markets as chairman?
I don't. there is market consensus, and i have my views, but i probably wouldn't want to share them on national television -- you don't strike me as mr.
Again, i'm not going to bite on this one.
Positions are smaller, you cut positions, but what are you doing?
You're not completely sitting in cash.
Ok, so, my guess is -- and i believe the market is topping.
The economists -- i mean, the stock market predicted three out of seven, i predicted seven out of three.
I started in a bear market, so i have a bearish bias.
Where i am on the market is if you gave me a stock i really like, i will buy it.
If you give me a stalker relief eight, i was shorted.
But in terms of having some big position, long or short index, or some exposure to the stock market, right now i am lost.
I don't play when i am lost.
I know in the future i won't be lost and i will -- you can sit in because you're managing her own money.
I was sitting in cash when i was managing other people's money.
Can other managers say, i'm going to take to in 20 and not invest?
I don't know.
The way i always approach a business is, you give me a pile of money and i'm going to try and pound the many free overtime as best i can.
This whole courtly performance and risk-adjusted stuff that is in beijing -- invading the hedge fund, i don't get it.
I can't imagine why anybody would play two plus 20 to what is out there.
When i started in the business, there was me, george soros, paul tudor jones, bruce governor.
A couple of jokers.
We were expected to make 20% a year in down markets.
There was none of this, oh, i've got a risk-adjusted return of 8. that is how to plus 20 came about.
That's why our hedge fund managers so less successful ? there are too many.
There were eight to 10 back then.
Somehow, 9000 people are pricing their product off of eight to 10 people toss his door performance.
-- nine to 10 people's historic performance.
I notice a lot of the smart early investors and hedge fund clients were leaving, but they were more than replaced by state pension funds, sovereign wealth funds of and so far they have been perfectly happy to get returns that our early investors would have never tolerated.
Do you invest in other funds?
Yes, i do.
How do you make the decision of who you want to invest with?
I meet with them.
Luckily, i've been in the business 35 years so i think i've are pretty good hedge about what makes them just go over their investment philosophy and see whether they can make money over time.
As a hedge fund manager or former hedge fund manager, what to think about the media circus around credits like herbalife and all of these big personalities and names involved?
This is not the way stan druckenmiller invests.
To each his own.
I am surprised because i always thought publicizing your positions was not a good thing.
It might be great for a day or two dub, but these people forget, you have to get out of these positions.
But you don't suddenly say, maybe i want to go long herbalife or apple.
The only time i really got interested in herbalife is when you guys did the show on ulster it's. that got my attention.
The guy was not try to do a day trade or somebody shorted this or that.
That was a serious, serious investor will stop that would get my intention.
What else is getting your attention these days?
I'm very focused on the new fed chairman and i'm perfectly willing to wait a few weeks to find out -- so that leads me to a question.
If you have -- you're saying earlier, the smallest positions you can remember, right?
In most things, yes.
And you also have a great track record calling bear markets.
By the way, it is not that great because i have called bear markets that didn't happen.
How close are we right now?
As long as the fed is printing money, not very close.
That is why the issue of tapering and where we go with it is so important.
I don't really care whether we go to 70 were 65 and september, but if you tell me qe is going to be removed over nine or 12 months, that is a big deal.
It is my believe that qe as subsidize all asset prices and when you remove that, the market will go down.
Asset levels or asset prices -- that was the just a lot of what we see in asset prices is illusory.
If you take the fat away, the fundamental underpinnings just aren't there.
My first mentor and boss used to tell me, it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to minute delay to stock up.
But the minute you have this phony buying stock, it can go down on no volume.
It can just reprice immediately.
I personally think as long as this game goes on, assets will stay elevated.
When he removed that prop -- let's face it, the fed says they're targeting asset prices.
Those prices can adjust immediately.
June was instructive.
If you did not believe before the exit was going to be tough, the mere hint that maybe in three months, if the economy is good, we might go from $85 billion a month to buying $65 billion a month, cause that kind of havoc and risk around the world, how in the world does anyone think when the actual exit happens that prices are not going to respond?
It is silly.
You said you have the smallest positions of most things.
What you then have big positions in?
I don't have what i would call it takes courage to be a big position in anything.
I am long some japanese equities.
I am sure some yen.
In terms of big outside bets like a head earlier in the year in something like australian dollar or, frankly, my pets and were bigger earlier in the year, everything sort of down and waiting for the next big shot.
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