To sell s&p options and play in equities where there is opportunity to buy options with names like apple and amazon that have low volatility relative to where the indexes are treading.
Why do you think those big names are seeing low volatility?
The interesting thing is the vix is low, but we are seeing offsetting plays.
You get big moves up and down in individual names.
Thank you so much.
We will leave it there.
We are back in 30 minutes.
"street smart" starts now.
Not so fast.
Michael dell ups the ante.
Shareholder vote gets delayed again.
Carl icahn says the war is far from over.
We have a spoonful of job sugar to help the affordable care medicine go down.
Blue moon or bad moon rising?
From bloomberg world headquarters, this is "street smart" with trish regan and adam johnson.
No sell-off after the jobs report.
Weak data signals the fed may stay the course.
We have 59 minutes until the closing bell.
We're looking for the last trade today in the first trade mark.
The idea being the bond buying may continue.
It was a lousy job number.
There were some real problems.
People making less.
Fewer people are being counted.
Time for the big picture.
The charts you need to see to paint the picture of what is happening.
The dow jones industrial is now down about six boys.
We had been down more on concern about what was a lousy jobs report.
You are seeing the play out in the 10-year as well.
If you have a lousy jobs report, the fed will continue to buy.
That means yields are going.
As soon as the jobs numbers hit, it fell.
Oil a similar situation.
Fewer jobs created would suggest lower growth and lower demand for oil.
It still costs me over $90 to put gas in my car.
Of course you are filling up in manhattan.
It is a big tank.
I buy 9 4 and need to go 87. vis-a-vis stocks to watch toward the close.
Three big ones we want to show you.
The coal producer lowering its 2013 shipment estimates by about 2% on the high end.
It is also seen a decline in revenue.
Prices are lower and there is weaker volume.
Down 9%. take a look at chevron . it was hit with second quarter profit decline, the biggest in four years.
Oil prices fell as well as production down 1.6%. the older fields are not delivering for the big oil companies.
We are looking at csx, a railroad company looking to fix variable contracts.
One fixed the and one that changes.
They have a two-pronged approach.
Analysts say using that model will lead to much better volume.
Even if the bottom falls short, the minimums will help to protect against profit decline.
Csx one of the biggest winners of the day of over 2%. the dell shareholder vote is delayed again as michael dell ups his ante.
He and silver lake are offering a dividend of 13 cents a share on top of the already increased bid.
In exchange, investors holding the stock as of august 13 will be eligible to vote on the deal.
Abstentions will no longer be counted as no votes.
Those changes put more ballots in his column hurting the carl icahn rival bid.
He filed a complaint to prevent the move.
He says the new dividend was an insult to shareholders.
Cristina is in texas at dallas headquarters where the vote did not happen.
It is postponed now until september.
Another day, another delay for the dell vote.
The latest twist has all sides fighting again.
Southeastern has come out and said michael dell and silver lake do not deserve the concessions won today on voting requirements because they did not pay for them.
They used the company cashed the belongs to shareholders to get the concessions.
Those are the ones you mentioned in your introduction.
We heard from carl icahn.
He was talking about the fact that he is going to continue to press still reports to intervene.
He is not letting go.
He said one of the major issues is the fact the company today it said the shareholder votes , the annual shareholder meeting is now scheduled for october 17. that puts the day after both the vote and potential close on the deal.
That is basically cutting carl icahn off of the knees when it comes to launching a proxy fight.
If there is no annual shareholders' votes -- meeting before the vote, there is no potential for him to propose his slate of directors.
He is going to try to get the courts to intervene.
We will have to see how that plays out.
Let's see how it is going to play out.
We will bring in our panel of experts.
/ it is great to have you here.
Let's start with you, richard.
Carl icahn won one lawsuit.
Can we anticipate more?
I think there will be two types of losses.
The carl icahn losses say the switching of the vote requirement was not compensated enough for by the increase in the share price.
Correct me if i am wrong.
A delaware law, it is traditional and typical voters not voting are still included in the how?
There are two those that happen.
One is the one required under law that says a majority of shares outstanding have to vote for the merger.
Michael dell's shares are included in that.
There is a second vote requirement imposed by the special committee to add to their argument they negotiate a fair deal for republic shareholders.
-- for the public shareholders.
Should the special committee be worried they will be found at fault for not doing what was in the best interest of the shareholders?
I do not think so.
I look at whether there were any leaks about dissension among the special committee members.
This process was a tight ship.
It will be judged on this decision as to whether they could have done more for changing the voting procedure.
Their argument is we got compensation for the shareholders by making this change.
The compensation being 13 cents, which carl icahn would point out was there monday to begin with.
It is coming out of the corporate coffers.
That is cash that would have been on the balance sheet on the deal closed.
It would go to michael dell and soberly, not to existing shareholders.
But it is going to the existing shareholders.
But they are getting more than they would have.
Essentially 23 cents.
You have the 10 cent increase in addition to the special dividend.
We're watching the stock go up in trading today.
Is this because people assume the deal will get done.
? it is pretty much done.
If you agree with richard, we will find out what the delaware court says.
They are slated to have the case approximately august 12. we will find out what they have to say.
When i left, it it was thirdof 32 cents.
. that is still hard.
If you see the delaware court go in favor of the buyout of michael dell and soberly, that is where it will go.
There are regulatory approvals remaining.
The point is there is enough spread for shareholders to take advantage of.
Let's go back to carl icahn.
Where does this leave him?
He started his lawsuits.
He is against the change in the voting standard.
I am glad richard brought up the two votes.
What the committee did is they rendered the second vote meaningless.
The vote that was supposed to give them extra protection.
It required a higher threshold of 42% versus 51% , 35% after dell's votes.
It does not matter any more, the unaffiliated vote.
If dell ended the majority of outstanding shares, he will get the vote.
That was not the case before.
It is only about 27% of the votes that could vote no, so in theory has the votes.
It is simpler than that.
Mutual owns 65 million shares.
They were presumably 150 short.
This record date is august 13. more than 1 billion shares have traded from june 3 until the record date.
500 million shares have traded the last two or three weeks.
It is done.
The only thing waiting to happen is if delaware says no you cannot do that -- what is the timing?
How long will it take the court?
It will have to decide before the august 13 meeting.
August 12. the shareholder vote is september 12. it will happen before.
The delaware court comes back and says you cannot do this, what happens?
I think the vote will go back to the extension committee.
They will have to fight it out.
I do not think they can unscramble the egg and go back to the old record date because of the requirement there be no more than 60 days.
It has been treated so much it will be hard to find the guys that currently own the shares much less before.
They are willing to say this is a done deal.
We're the owners.
The special committee said you bump it, we're going to give you the company.
They hand it to them.
The shares are they're voting in favor of the transaction because they're playing the spread.
They were working this out behind the scenes.
Let me give the framework of how much money is being made.
If you bought the stock appertain dollars and if the deal closes -- if you bought the stock at $13 and the deal closes -- if you bought its two days ago when the stock was dipping and everybody did not think it was going through, that is a 40% annualized spread.
They are not buying shares to vote this down.
They have made a lot of money.
They are expecting a lot of money.
They want positive pnl.
And agree with that.
The company is still worth a lot of money.
I think the deal will happen.
The special committee sold out the shareholders for 1.7% bump and took away the protection the shareholders were counting on that the agreement would be unbelievable.
Legally speaking, i do not think the courts will stop it.
I do not think the shareholders are going to rebel.
I think the deal will happen.
The shareholders today want to deal.
The change did not disenfranchise anyone.
Are going to stand up for the principle of people to abstain from voting?
It seems that will be the argument in delaware.
It is a tough thing to overturn the decision of what has been well-functioning.
You could have the blackrock and vanguards saying we will take a stand.
They did not.
The media said for these guys to change, they were expecting at least $14. the special committee wanted $14. we have $13.96. that is including the dividends.
That is not even what the media was reporting the special committee wanted in exchange for michael dell and silver lake to change the voting standard.
It is four sense, but it is meaningful.
Where they already getting and 8 cent dividend?
There is a bit of accounting.
13 cents coming from the balance sheet, why not make it 50 cents?
They should have.
It is not just carl icahn's lawsuit.
There are additional ones.
We will be watching all of it.
It is good to have all of you here.
Coming up, the fed will not do it.
It is time to to the scales in our favor.
Adam will tell you how.
Later, get out of the water.
Your worst pollution nightmare is taking the country by storm.
-- your worst pollution nightmare is taking the country by storm.
That is pretty cool.
? time to tip the scales in our favor.
Let's look at what is going on this week.
We're in a delicate balance.
On the one hand, you have been bernanke saying i will keep pumping the system with money.
That is what we learned wednesday.
Today we learned why he is doing that.
This was a lousy jobs report.
The amount of time people working going down.
The amount they are making also going down.
We're not creating enough jobs to make for those lost.
A very delicate balance, to put it nicely.
Here is the one thing we need to focus on that until the skills in our favor.
Positive company guidance.
It is simple.
We went into the s&p 500. of the 343 companies that have reported, how many have reaffirmed guidance or upped it 5%? 16 only are reiterating or increasing guidance by 5%. here they are.
Too many for me to name.
Do not worry.
I will post them on twitter.
All 16 names reiterating affect their growing by at least 5%. that is amazing.
Only 16 out of 343. we care as investors because they are outperforming.
The sweet 16 a year to date versus the s&p 500. doh with the growth.
There are only 16 companies out there.
They know all about how to get higher returns.
He now runs his own shop.
He just finished writing his book.
We want to welcome you back to "street smart." it is great to have you here in person.
Andrew keene in the house.
Let's talk earnings.
Adam is looking at guidance.
Which companies are you looking at?
Most of the companies reported have gone up.
Only 50% of them are from europe.
The earnings have been good for the most part.
I love to trade earnings if there are weekly auctions.
Yelp went from 40 to 60. they are outperforming.
Those in china and europe are not growing as fast.
I use apple as a perfect example.
Last year, it was $11 a share.
This year, they came in at $7.67. growth year over year is terrible.
The only company seen that much are the bank stocks.
Those have performed outside earnings.
We know they're just moving things back on the balance sheet.
It will be interesting to see how the banks will perform if interest rates keep going higher.
We have a lot to talk about in the next two hours.
Crack open a cold one.
Time to get crafty.
That is coming up.
? how time.
Today's global alone.
The state department has issued a travel alert for the middle east and northern africa.
The former director of u.s. national security council and former white house security adviser joins us.
Thank you for taking time to talk to viewers.
How concerned should we be about the warning?
Travelers to the middle east and north african need to be concerned.
They probably already were.
It is a high-risk part of the world than other areas.
Travelers to other parts of the world do not need to be as concerned.
The main action the government took was to close the embassies and consulates in the middle east tomorrow, on sunday.
When they do that, there is a presumption they cannot have a double standard of protecting official personnel and versus the general traveller.
I think that is where the put the global work out.
To clarify, the focus is on the middle east and northern africa.
They made it worldwide.
Do you think they did that as a precaution?
Yes, i do.
They have some intelligence on a possible plot.
It made the electronic surveillance or an agent inside the cell.
Do not know where it will take place.
A suspected terrorist groups somewhere in the world has the intent to carry out an attack against american interests or citizens.
They do not know where, when, or how.
It is in those circumstances where you get these general worldwide advisories or alerts.
Does this jive with how you would advise the white house in that position?
After 9/11, we had to do this a lot.
It is frustrating to the officials and people receiving it.
You are in a bind.
When you have intelligence, indeed put the word out to the public from time to time.
Thank you for joining us as always.
The king of craft beer next.
? americans have always loved beer.
The champagne wishes and cavier dreams seem to have impacted drinking habits.
Nolten core says it was all about craft before it was cool.
Beer aficionadas have long questioned their craftiness because of its parentage.
Deciding whether it is the king of craft or an impostor is not the question.
It is whether or not is the key to the companies stock performance.
For that, we go to our panel.
What is going on?
Why is craft beer so popular now?
It is one of the few parts of the beer industry actually growing.
Beer grew a little over 1%. kraft beer grew by over 10%. you have molten core doing well in this space.
Anheuser-busch has done well.
Is there ever a backlash because some people feel these are big corporations trying to cash in on something that used to be very specific and more on the artistic side?
There is this whole debate . the argument is this.
The smaller brewers say, do you want to put your money with a local business or send your money to a multinational just trying to line the pockets of shareholders?
The idea is ours have better ingredients.
We do not cut corners.
We have better quality.
We have more flavors instead of a mass-produced beer.
They say ours is better.
Some people will not drink blue moon knowing it is made by a major brewer.
Some may not drink it, but plenty of others will.
What is it meaning for these companies' bottom lines?
It represents nearly 50% of the molten core profits.
7% comes from craft.
Unfortunately, their exposure to the premium segment is small relative to the overall category, which is 30%. they are not benefiting as much as the overall industry from the exposure to craft.
It is relatively cheap.
We do think it is fairly valued given earnings growth is below the peer group.
Andrew keene, what are you seeing in the options market?
Craft does not move much on earnings.
In my book, i talk about the stocks historically.
I look at the last eight quarters.
In six, the stock has sold off on earnings.
I have a simple strategy.
On this trade, i am risking $130. i can make $120. this is a neutral to slightly bearish trade.
I make money if the stock is flat or go slower.
I have a bit of a cushion to the upside.
The stock has been up underperforming competition.
Deo looks better on this chart as well.
I am taking a risk for sids record set up that it will not rally to much.
If it sells off, i can get a nice return on monday.
She mentioned there is not the time of earnings growth.
That is why she thinks the stock is fairly valued.
What is the reason?
Our people switching to wine as opposed to beer?
Is that why you are seeing more growth in wine?
Not only wine, but spirits as well.
That has been a problem for several years.
One of the reasons according to people in the industry is millennials like cocktails.
The boomer set is interested in wines.
The big beers are the premium lights.
They are not as flavorful for those people, but they are getting a lot of the marketing dollars.
Thank you to the whole gang.
If you want to be the future fed chief, you will have to give us your financial.
We did some digging into financial records.
We will tell you what we found.
Do you want to call the doctor or nurse?
We're talking about health care jobs and what is hot.
? breaking news.
Bloomberg has just learned in washington, president obama is consulting with tim geithner on who the next fed chairman might be.
Hans nichols joins us with details.
What more can you tell us?
According to people familiar with the matter, president obama is consulting with tim geithner on who the next fed chairman can be.
He is a consultant.
He is not the candidate.
Tim geithner has made it clear he has no interest in the fed job.
That seemed to be setting in now at the white house that he is not an option.
They are using him as a sounding board.
He has relationships.
He knows of three of the known candidate we know about.
It does not give larry summers an advantage, the fact tim geithner is there whispering to the president about this.
They are closed.
But at the same time, it is a complicated relationship.
When you look back to 2009, tim geithner was arguing for ben bernanke, for continuity, and against ben bernanke getting it back then.
I would not read this is meaning larry summers is different under.
That does mean the president has someone he can trust in tim geithner.
There are some leading candidates.
You are a washington insider.
I know you have done digging on your own.
What can you tell us about these guys?
Can you tell us what they might be worth?
We pulled their financial disclosures.
When larry summers left the clinton administration, he made at least $17 million.
Let me try to break that down.
We have the 1999 financial disclosure reports.
His assets were about $900,000. fast forward to when he had to file before he joined the obama administration, up to $39 million in assets.
He earned $2.7 million in speaking fees.
After harvard, he did go to d.e. shaw as managing director.
Since leaving the obama white house, he is also doing consulting for citigroup: nasdaq and entries in -- and andreesen horowitz.
Here are her assets.
Her largest holding is in vanguard.
She also has a stamp collection between $15,000.50000 dollars.
Don cohn are perhaps the least exciting assets.
He has all holding of about $1 million in a balanced fund.
He is on the paid speaking circuit for about 40,000 lawyers.
You will get a good sense of how much you can cash out for in a 2.5 years of being out of the obama administration, what that is worth, who is paying them, and how much.
The interesting question is whether this becomes contentious for senate confirmation.
This could be an ugly confirmation battle.
This refocuses the old adage about no one ever going broke doing business with the government, one way or the other.
Get a stamp collection next time.
She should get together with bill gross.
They could trade stance.
I am sure they could help each other progress he probably has a bigger collection.
The jobs report this morning showed employers added fewer workers than expected in july.
One segment that is hot is nursing.
Demand for nurse practitioners in particular prepare olivia sterns is here with why the affordable care act is fueling demand for nurses.
The u.s. is facing a critical shortage of doctors.
When the affordable care act kicks in next year, millions more people will get insurance.
I wanted to check this out myself.
One solution to the shortage is to transfer some of the burden over to nurse practitioners.
I met this doctor myself.
I am happy because she told me i am taller than i thought i was.
This is why she explained it could be a cost-effective solution.
We are cost-effective, necessary, mainstream provider.
If the affordable care act is going to work and we're good to recognize savings, we have to look at primary care, preventing the problem, and managing the problem.
The laws do vary from state to state as to how nurse practitioners can practice.
They all have graduate degrees.
They can write prescriptions.
How prevalent gardners practitioners?
I would imagine they are cheaper than seeing a doctor.
Can be cheaper out of pocket.
They are about 160,000. there should be about 250,000 in a few years.
That is good news because the shortage is serious.
If we look at the u.s. against other developed countries, the u.s. only has about 30 doctors per 100,000 people compared to the u.k., germany, and france.
We have 1/5 of the doctors they have.
They can also be cheaper to train.
You can train three to 12 for the price it costs to trade one doctor.
That is according to the new england journal of science.
We hope you are in good health.
Thank you very much.
Coming up, facebook is back from the dead.
You might want to short it.
We will explain.
We will be right back.
? time to show you a chart that will make you smarter and make use the money.
Facebook stock has been on a tear.
For the eighth day in a row, is making another post-ipo-back to where it started.
And joaquin -- andrew keene, talk to us about facebook and how you are playing the options.
Facebook is unbelievable.
It took off.
It is back to the ipo price.
They are making another all-time high.
It is hard for me to want to short the stock because momentum is so strong.
I think there is over have supplied.
A lot of people have been in the stock for a long time and lost money.
They want to get out.
It is that the exact ipo price.
It does not seen it can break through it.
I think it is going lower.
I do not want to short.
I bought some puts.
I have already sold half.
I can do this for about 50 cents.
My break-even is around $36.90. if i see it start to roll over, i may spread it out.
People want to get out.
We are all on social media.
Twitter, love it.
I do not use facebook.
I do not know many people that like it anymore.
But they have $one.
2 billion -- do you know how many are fake?
Parts may be as many as 30%. they are not doing anything right.
Linkedin is very strong on earnings.
A new all-time high almost every day.
I think there is an overhead supply for facebook.
I do not like it as the company.
They will have to compete against google.
I would not want to compete against amazon and google.
Is twitter the next myspace?
People are moving off of facebook and twitter.
It is more professional.
I use facebook for pleasure.
I use twitter for business.
You still use it for social connections.
Do you think that is going away?
They are asking for some global pricing on advertising.
If they can generate revenue from that, it is a different story.
I not think many companies will be willing to pay for this.
A lot of the users are fake.
You are alleging that.
Twitter and linkedin is more for professionals.
Professionals will have more money than a 16-year-old.
But if you can get 16-year- olds hooked on something james -- yelp is up from 40 to 60 in two days.
I think there is oversupply.
Today is the first day in seven days it did not trade 100 million shares.
It is getting tired.
I am not saying to aggressively short facebook.
I am just saying i could see it hitting $33 before $45. trisha is an influence on linkedin.
Every month, i write a piece for them as do 99 others.
It is about keeping people on the side.
You have got to provide some content for them to be looking at.
That is in addition to the networking.
I am putting content on it.
They are getting it for myself and 99 other people.
Is this enough?
Is this enough to keep people on the site longer?
Linkedin from a professional point of view is amazing.
There is linked in premium.
I cannot imagine how many e- mails you get in a day.
If you by linkedin premium for around $70 a month, you can e- mail and network better.
I like the business model a lot better.
It is at an all-time high.
When we come back, it is time for the top 10. do not go anywhere.
It is almost time to close.
? if you missed today's session, do not worry.
Number 10 is aig, up nearly 3%, after the insurers said profits grew in the first quarter.
It will issue its first evidence since 2008. chevron, down more than one percent today after the energy company posted its biggest second-quarter profit decline in 4 years.
It missed estimates as well.
Chevron profits fell to $5.4 billion, due to lower oil prices earlier in the quarter, as well as maintenance work at a number of refineries.
Britain's biggest publicly owned lender has named the head of its uk consumer unit as the government presses to lead the lender to shrink its investor -- investment bank.
Ross mcewan will replace stephen -- stephen hester.
Speculations the cable operator may be an acquisition target.
Cablevision reported second- quarter sales that missed estimates after losing consumers and customers during the quarter.
Weight watchers down 19% today, plunging the most in nearly two years.
The company says profit this year will be less than previously forecast.
The revision comes as weight watchers struggles to recruit members.
I lost five pounds in one week by cutting out all the garbage -- potato chips, ice cream.
I thought you were going to say you were on weight watchers.
I lost 30 pounds.
Linkedin -- a weaker than projected sales forecast has failed to disrupt a share rally.
Membership has more than doubled since mid-2011, and second- quarter revenue exceeded estimates.
The stock is at a record high.
Trish, you look great.
Is that linked in?
She isn't influencer.
She puts that she is an influencer.
She puts content on that gets other people to come to the website.
I will log on now, for the first time since 2008. viacom up almost six percent.
The owner of nickelodeon is doubling its stock buyback, more than half of its market value.
Also higher than estimated sales in the fourth quarter.
Berkshire hathaway is up a fraction, due to release second- quarter earnings late this afternoon.
Results are likely to be affected by the housing market, and how a railroad would reduce demand for coal.
We are looking at toyota as number two.
Up more than 6%. asia's biggest car maker raised its forecast.
A weaker yen is helping to bolster exports.
Predictions the maker of the camry has room to raise predictions once again.
Are number one stock is trading up more than five percent.
Michael dell agreed to sweeten his proposal to buy the company to as much as $24.9 billion.
The move to secure his the board committee, which is winning shareholder support for the deal.
It does assure many more shareholder lawsuits, of which carl icahn is one.
Wheat data on the jobs report.
We are still managing to eke out a bit of a game.
-- a gain.
Let us get straight to your market roundup.
Matt is keeping an eye on equities for us.
I was checking out the breakdown by sector.
Defensive sectors are down.
It is the utilities and energy, two of the only three sectors on the s&p that are falling today.
The other was financials.
It is not a great rally when financials do not lead the way.
Maybe that says something about why we are up.
Maybe investors thought the weaker than expected jobs number means the fed will not use back on the throttle any time soon.
You see financials just eking out a loss for the day.
Everybody else was up.
Materials and i.t. putting up the biggest gains.
Scott bauer and our closer, here on set.
Is that what it came down to?
Do you think people were slightly encouraged by the weak jobs report, because it means no taper, come september?
That is probably the underlying theme, but i think there is more cynicism, at least on the trading floor.
There is a lot of bewilderment, let's say.
Good news is bad news, even in chicago.
I never heard of any cynicism out of chicago.
That is crazy talk.
I am sure that is what drove the market here.
Maybe it is not happening in september.
I am surprised we did not see a bigger move will stop if people are that excited by the idea that there is no taper in september because jobs are poor, why not a bigger move?
There wasn't implication that -- this means you are long or short.
It was implying the market was going to move on he points.
They broke out of the range.
We joke in the office, when the futures are down five points, you might as well buy them, because they are going to go out.
It is very hard to be shorting this market.
I lose money on the puts.
If you look at the volatility index, the vix, it is down almost every single day.
It has been up four days.
That means the longer you hold puts or calls, you lose the money, because you are just taking the premium out.
Even this morning, when the futures are down five winds, the vix is lower.
We see oil.
I used to trade oil a lot.
It is 107. it used to be $80. i want to go to andrew.
We have facebook today closing for the first time above its ipo price, 38 a share.
It closed around the 38 level.
This is such a crucial level.
I think there is some overhead supply, but it has been fighting this 38 level.
Do think it will have a hard time staying above the level?
Today did make another higher hive.
Technically, that is strong.
We have also seen huge volume, 100 million shares on days like this.
If you have already seen lock up and the retail investors spooked by the ipo debacle already got out already -- i think anybody that bought the ipo price has finally said, i am back to breakeven.
Let me out.
I have seen this go down for so long.
It was supposed to be the greatest ipo since google.
It fell flat on its face, and they finally get back to breakeven.
Let me out of this trade.
It is up 115% since the low, up 40% on earnings.
They had a good quarter, but this level is huge.
Another big stock in the news.
A lot of optimism that the dell deal is going to get done.
That is what it looks like.
There have been a lot of call buying over the last couple of weeks.
It's time along the way that there has been news out, everyone said it is a done deal.
Last week, we saw activity pickup.
We saw activity in the upside call.
I came out earlier today and said, that is great for the shareholders, but there is something else here.
It is dangling the carrot.
It was up $.70 today.
A huge move.
It may not be the end, but it has to be real close.
What about berkshire hathaway?
The earnings are going to be out in about an hour.
What do we think of mr.
He is going to temper any negativity about the slowdown in coal shipments.
And of the day, he is going to say, we are invested in great companies.
We are in this for the long run.
The economy is turning around, which means our stock price is going to go higher.
He is invested in down-home american products.
In other words, we are not going to learn anything new.
It is status quo.
By america and by for the long- term.
You said that every time futures are down five or six points, you buy something, because of the market.
How much of that is the fed?
This is the third straight jobs numbers.
We rallied in the stock market.
We had 2 consecutive strong bearish days since the end of june.
It is up in a straight line.
It is hard to buy on a 52-week all-time high.
That the earnings have been good.
Stocks in general have been going up on earnings.
I do not mind trading earnings to alongside.
At some point, we have to have a correction to take that higher.
I do not think it goes up in a straight line forever.
That is your close.
We have your first trade tomorrow.
Here is a look at what is coming up next.
Take this job and shove it.
What the revolving door indicator says about the health of our economy.
And, stay out of the water.
The host of shark week takes us inside the cage and behind the craze that captivated the nation for nearly 30 years.
There is the business behind that bite.
Plus, a time of quarters, hairy hipsters, and more and buffett if "breaking bad" obsession.
-- and warren buffett's "breaking bad" obsession.
? there is a really good way to gauge the strength of our jobs make it -- jobs market.
It is not jobless claims or nonfarm payrolls.
It is the "take this job and shove it index," a revolving door indicator that could be a key to looking at the health of our labor market.
The lead economist at pay scale joins us now.
Also, ceo adam lewis.
Let me start with katie.
Take this job and shove it, this index -- what does that mean?
Basically, something we have observed is a hot job market, especially in igg's, has cause people to leave their company and not stay for very long.
What is the timing?
Three months, six months?
Not that bad.
It is more like 10 months to a year.
You are suddenly seeing people start to shift, and that is a bullish sign.
It is a sign that there are better opportunities out there, so workers are no longer going to be ok with a less than excellent work condition.
What is this saying overall about our economy?
We got a bad jobs number today.
Is this suggesting that people are feeling more confident, and that they can start to make moves now?
I think you are seeing it particularly in the technology sector's and a few other areas.
The labor market is heating up in these areas.
Not just improving.
You say heating up.
I absolutely think so.
And you look at engineers and certain technology sector positions -- when you look at google and amazon, employees are moving around.
By virtue of being at those companies, they become sought after by everyone else in the field, and they are getting poached.
Can you name actual companies?
Google, amazon, some other tech firms.
Sam desk was another.
-- sandisk was another.
We have seen turnover in retail, which is not as good a sign.
That is important to mention.
Tracks from the retail perspective -- retail and hospitality, massive job gains last month.
70,000, between retail hospitality.
Yet there is such a high turnover, 35% hospitality, 25% in retail.
There is a big problem in that there is a mismatch in terms of what companies are looking for and what the candidates are going for in the roles.
This is a job as a clerk at the gap, or some kind of clothing store.
What you you say there is a mismatch?
The people at the front line are the brand ambassadors.
At the end of the day, customers come back to those companies based on people in the stores.
And presumably the product.
One would hope all stop definitely the quality of the product, of course.
But it is so important to have the right frontline staff.
These people are getting a critique on online sites the day after.
This leads us to the big issue we are not seeing in the economy right now.
That is inflation.
You say there is so much turnover, retail companies cannot hold onto employees, in part because they are not the right fit.
To get the person that is the right fit, do they need to be paying more?
In this turnover, with take his job and shove it, do companies need to be paying employees more?
This may be a contrarian view.
Obviously, employees are going to be attracted by high salary, but that is not the only thing they are looking for.
Who they are working with, what the culture is like, what opportunities for growth exist -- that is tremendously important.
The companies that provide paths to advancement and professional development are winning.
Those that focus on the numbers are losing out.
What about the trend of people trying to pad a resume, a year here, a year there?
Does that work tom or do people see through that because you are a rolling stone?
I think it depends on the story you tell in the interview.
If you can say very articulately to the interviewer, this is what i learned from this.
This is why i moved, you might have a chance of success.
If you just say, i was here, i was there, people will see through the move.
The inflation is one thing the fed keeps siding.
You do not have enough in our economy right now, and we are not seeing a lot of wage growth.
Can that change?
Does that need to happen?
The nana republic and gap -- do they need to pay employees more to keep them?
Ask a lot of factors influence these things.
I am hearing time and time again that it is important to make sure the right people are going into the jobs.
We have been speaking to lots of hr directors in the retail and hospitality space.
Take danny meyer, a new york restaurant guide, as an example.
He is having good success at maintaining the people in his organization.
He does not have the same turnover.
Make -- what does he do?
The key thing is, he shows them a career path.
A lot of times, in the restaurant or hospitality business, they are coming in, and think that is there space for five months, and they are going to move on.
What danny meyer and others do is, they are looking at people and saying, this is where you are today.
It is not about my paycheck now.
Where can i progress in a year?
Mcdonald's, in europe, have a university, where they put people through the frontline restaurant programs and train them into management positions.
I think it is very encouraging.
It is great for the businesses.
If you have people in management who have spent time on the frontline, that is a strength.
We have incredible companies coming to highlight the ways they take people in, and relatively low skilled or entry- level jobs, but provide them with a clear path.
In theory, you want to hire the guy or gal who can take your job, because then you can move ahead.
It sounds good, but do you actually see that?
I think you do, but you have to ask questions.
You cannot take things like this at face value.
For every company that genuinely invests in employees, you have another that slaps a logo on a conference room and says, we are doing professional development.
As a job seeker, you want to ask the questions to understand.
I also think, with this turnover, you might see people thinking they are getting something different than what they get when they walked in the door.
People think that now.
I think it is starting to change.
If people are willing to go somewhere else -- there is a built-in set of risks when you leave a position and go to another.
But if people are willing to take those chances, that must say something about overall psychology about the job market.
In other words, and adam, maybe you can speak to this -- you are at a company that creates an app so you can find the jobs in an area near you.
A fascinating concept.
Are you actually seeing that is coming into play, where people are willing to leave because there are job markets?
Obviously, technology will give the information candidates want to know.
There are lots of factors that will influence how the progress and whether they are successful in their job.
We will leave it there.
Thanks for having us.
Coming up, always funny for me to hear there is another adam on set.
But we welcome adam.
When it comes back to school shopping, major retailers are growing up.
Younger siblings are growing up.
And it has been a staple of the discovery channel.
Shark week, coming up.
? time for your next big trade.
Retailers want your back-to- school dollars, especially since spending is forecast to fall eight percent this year.
This guy is not leading the charge.
Get some new books, will you?
Charge them to me.
Take a card.
It is on me.
Shakespeare for everyone.
Forget shakespeare, spiral notebooks, and clothes.
Retailers are betting big on dorm room furnishings.
Glad you are here on a friday.
Why is it furnishings are hot?
We are calling it dorm room furnishings.
You are calling it dorm room furnishings.
Last time i checked, the college provides dorm room furniture.
Is this more like college apartment furnishings?
I just wanted to clear that up.
For kids that live off-campus.
Not dorm room, but college apartments.
i wanted to clear that up.
That is true.
Why are people buying college furniture?
Why are retailers targeting it?
Retailers are targeting this demographic because they are millennial's. they are tech savvy.
They are trying to get the top of the mind brand awareness for the internet, because this generation is going to shop on the internet, and they are trying to create an emotional link between shopper and retailer.
So, the kid is 18 years old, going away, in theory, for the first time.
But if you can get this kid to say, you know what, when i went to college, target was where i got all my stuff, i loved college, therefore i am a loyal target customer?
Is that the link?
I used to buy stuff at ikea.
Time changed, right?
Maybe you do not want to shop at the store you shop at in college.
I think that is why they are marketing to these kids.
Syracuse, remember the beautiful orange blanket you snuggled in every night that might create an emotional link?
Top of them mind.
He sees is targeting not college kids, but millennial's, which college age kids are on the cusp of.
How much money does all this cost?
College kids do not have a lot of it.
They have to buy it somewhere.
What is a bet going to run?
What is an into table going to run?
All price points.
How is the macy's profit margin on stuff for the dorm rooms, versus the regular stuff they sell to a higher sophistication audience?
I think it is a little lower, but a small mix.
I think it is just the perception that this is where your college dorm shopping should take ways.
If they can get you in -- macy's seems a little sophisticated for a college kid.
Ikea, i would say a similar thing.
I lived in a fraternity.
We would pass around catches.
A couch or 20. i just wonder how the profit margin is for a company.
We only have 20, 30 seconds.
I think it is lighter, but they sell it every year, so it is part of the mix.
It is not going to tighten the gross margin.
Get out of the water.
Sharks are taking over the discovery channel.
We talked to the host of shark week, next.
? it is a bad week to be a seal.
That is the tagline for this week's shark week, a discovery channel celebration.
We are moments away from releasing the rescue seal back into the ocean.
Now you see it -- snappy -- sn uffy's triumphant return.
[screens] -- [ screams] shark week.
It is a bad week to be a seal.
That is a viral success the network hopes will translate into record ratings.
An inside look at the shark week strategy with the mc of shark week and a marine biologist and driver of the shark cage, with a special product tie-in twist.
See if you recognize that.
That happens to be able select in beedle -- volkswagen beetle- style shark tank.
What is it like to be driving this vehicle, having all these sharks coming straight toward you?
To be honest, the sharks are a little disturbed by such a big vehicle driving through the water, creating noise and electronic and magnetic fields.
They are a little little disconcerted about what it is.
It is actually very effective.
Besides that, it is really fun.
Flying it is quite technically challenging.
It is a great project to be involved in.
They are actually attracted to the vehicle.
Are they curious about it?
Walk us through what actually happens underneath the water.
I would say they are somewhat attracted.
They are definitely curious.
They will check it out.
If i am static on the bottom, not running the motors, they will come right up to me.
While i am operating it, i am spinning three propellers, and they create the electronic field.
The sharks get fairly wary.
It is so loud.
They can hear and feel me coming.
Generally, they keep a good distance.
They will circle back around and start following me, which is kind of cool.
Do you get nervous?
Nervous of the sharks?
i have been working with sharks so long.
There is a healthy respect for their unpredictable nature and what they might do.
I have been doing this almost a decade now.
Driving that vehicle, i must say, was definitely a challenge.
We had a short design window.
We only had a couple of days to test it.
After crushing it a few times and figuring out the right buoyancy and getting it right -- you are not going to fly it around.
It was like a piper cub airplane.
Is this the first time they have had a product tie-in?
I do not know.
It seems like we are going backward.
We are supposed to be flying in a car before we are going underwater, aren't we?
It is unbelievably cool.
I am blown away, and i think you will knock the cover off the ball next week.
This is phenomenal.
No one has ever done this before.
We are doing a show called shark after dark, the show that will come on after shark week programming.
It is like a late-night talk show that is kind of shark centered.
We will have celebrity guests and do a lot of shark talk.
What do you think people like so much about sharks?
Why are people so attracted to this?
Most people can watch them on tv, where it is fun to see other people get attacked.
Know what i mean?
It is fun to watch.
It is good that somebody else is doing that.
It is like watching somebody slipped on the ice.
I also think it is an amazing -- what an amazing animal.
It is millions of years old, and it survived so many things.
To see the ferocity of it, its power and strength, is pretty special to watch from your house on the couch.
I was down in the caymans, scuba diving, a few years ago.
We were surrounded at one point by 15 or 20 sharks.
I was amazed.
They were huge.
They came near us.
They were not even slightly aggressive.
Do we misunderstand sharks, the way we tend to think of them as attackers?
Is that unfair?
I think it is a little bit of both.
I think they are misunderstood.
Obviously, people say if you have been in the ocean, you have been within 10 feet of a shark.
At the same time, people say more people die every year from coconuts, but discovery has not done a coconut week yet.
A coconut cannot bite off your arm and high-five you with it, you know?
It makes them a little more interesting.
It is that bit of danger that makes them more interesting.
No one dated the nice guy.
You wanted a bit of danger.
I hear you.
It is tough out there.
Luke, does this create more awareness, do you think, for sharks and all they are capable of, both in terms of the danger element, as josh points out, but also in that they are really tremendous creatures?
To your point before, we, as a species, have a fascination with sharks.
They are one of the largest great for editors that we cannot just put in a box not go there.
We cannot not walk around the serengeti, but we can barely avoid going in the water as a culture.
We love it.
Sharks are there, but deadly.
They are monsters, but they are not predators -- but they are predators.
With shark week, we get slight insights into their behavior.
We do understand them fairly well as a predator.
If you look at the worldwide phenomenon, we are looking at a global industry of about $317 million annually, just from shark risen.
About 171 million of that is in the americas.
There is a huge industry of people wanting to make touch with sharks.
You look at discovery shark week, which has unique views of over 21 million per released show.
The numbers are there to sustain a huge industry in sharks.
People are fascinated -- are fascinated.
Did you see shark nato?
-- "sharknado"? do you think it is helping?
It just shows you how fascinated people are with sharks, and anything having to do with sharks, you know?
To make something as ridiculous as shark nato -- as "sharknado ," with record numbers, shows you how much interest there is for anything with sharks.
What do you expect the shark week will bring in for viewers, and ultimately discovery channel?
What kind of goals are you setting for yourselves this year to try to outdo last year?
I can only speak for my show.
It is tried and true.
The shark week programs are going to do what they always do.
For my show, we hope to hold on to the audience by making the show very shark-centric, but it is a comedy show, with funny field pieces.
They put me in the water was sharks, and i do not swim well, so it was interesting to see.
Before we let you guys go again, given that this does have a business angle -- the shark cage, talk us through what you had to do to get it in a state that would ensure that it worked?
The shark cage is brand integration at its finest.
It is a game changer we set up last year in partnership with vw.
We are taking it to the next logical level.
We got the design specs from book one -- from folks wagon, and build it as an underwater vehicle.
Last year, we had it driving around the bottom of the sea floor, which we were confident we could do.
This year, when the project came up for round two, i said the only thing we can do, the next logical step, is to make it fly.
That is a very, very difficult thing to do.
The last time someone tried to take a car underwater with this aspect was james bond, and they told that around.
I wanted us to maintain the authenticity of the machine, and create something unique.
You are like the james bond of shark world.
I am flying this thing around underwater.
Are you saying james bond is not real?
Is that what you are saying?
We are blowing the lid off a lot of things today.
I guess we are.
It is an interesting example of branded content.
We wish you all the luck.
Thank you for being here.
Thank you for having me.
Coming up, investors hungry for sharks are hungry for the blackrock etf guru as well.
And billionaire warren buffett is praising walter white from breaking bad -- from "breaking bad." ? investors are pumping money into junk bond funds at record rates.
Here to explain what it means, matt tucker and the etf analyst -- great having you here on the show.
Why are the products so hot?
Although rates have gotten higher , may and june, the ten- year got up 100 basis points.
We are seeing people buying into etf's as investors look for ways to build yield in a lean environment.
What kind of yields are we getting out of hyg?
Right now, hyg is around six percent, pretty attractive, considering interest rate risk.
One area of the high-yield bond state -- the low yield bond fund, the corporate etf.
This has taken and about $500 million each month all year, whereas hyg has been in and out.
This is one of the most successful bond etf loss of the year.
This gives you about a 4.5% yield, with a duration of two years.
Tell the viewers also -- you have the amt free -- the amt tax -- the muni bond etf.
That is a mouthful.
Demand is up.
It is the same income story we talked about a moment ago.
Muni bonds interest investors in higher tax brackets.
Yields on that fund are just over three percent right now, but tax adjusted, five percent.
For investors looking for income, that can be attractive.
Flows have tended to wax and wane.
We have seen more interest in shorter-maturity funds.
If there is a five-year version, and target maturity.
A lot of assets in muni space based on the same concern about rising rates.
The ticker of the week.
The ticker of the week this year -- this week is national.
Break out your cowboy boots.
This is the first ever nashville-area etf.
Going to nashville.
That show is my favorite.
I will be a happy guy if we can do country music on the show.
It invests in 24 companies headquartered around the nashville area, like cracker barrel, dollar general, healthcare companies.
The first reaction is, it is a little gimmicky.
But the whole by local concept -- "buy local" concept works in other markets.
A good example is the ticker guru.
People thought that was gimmicky, but it is over 100 million because of performance.
It is up 50%. there were state-specific etf's for texas and oklahoma that did close up shop within a year.
The presidents do not look good, but there is a good spirit behind the launch.
You guys are huge.
Come back and see us again.
Hairy hipsters are hurting companies.
You have to stick around.
? it is time for weird wall street, where bizarre is business as usual.
What is the expression -- don't get angry, get even?
A man was court ordered to pay five hundred thousand dollars he received in an insurance payment.
He went to the federal reserve and packed quarters into a 50 pound bag.
Let us stop to appreciate the brilliance.
That is brilliant.
I love it.
$500,000, paid back in quarters.
Here is another.
The rise of the american hipster has supported many businesses in recent years, including popster blue-ribbon and single gear bicycles.
One industry not supporting the hipsters -- the razor industry.
The growing acceptance of stubble and beards has gone mainstream and is impacting sales of the biggest men's razor makers.
Makes perfect sense, right?
If you are growing stubble, you do not need to shave.
You are part of the problem.
Look at that.
Once a week.
I switched over to electric razors while i was on my motorcycle vacation.
I shifted because i was so tired of paying $48 for a pack of 12. but you do not get as close a shave.
I am a rugged man.
I do not have much to say on this.
We have berkshire hathaway earnings reporting moments from now.
? it is time again for bloomberg on the market.
Let us look at how markets ended up today.
Stocks erasing earlier losses, ending up once again in the green.
The s&p 500 closing at a record.
The nasdaq, up by about 0.4%. we did see investors selling off on the back of disappointing jobs figures in the u.s., adding only 162,000 jobs in july, shy of forecasts and the lowest number in for months.
We did have -- in 4 months.
Facebook shares are back up to the ipo price.
Facebook is now up over 40% in 2013. care fusion ended up being the biggest laggard on the s&p after the yield of smiths group medical fell through.
Shares surging after second- quarter earnings-per-share beat estimates.
It has been an up-and-down week for the markets, with all the earnings and data out this week.
Any are saying the s&p 500 is bulletproof, but is that true?
Jason, the s&p is now up more than 20% since the start of the year.
I had a guest earlier tommy he thinks it is heading to 1800. what do you think?
Is it overbought?
One theme i have been focusing on and want to share with viewers is that i think going into the fall and the winter, i think the theme is going to be the end of certainty.
Ever since the crash in 2008 and the recovery in 2009, or nagy has provided the markets with a sense of certainty any time the markets dip thomas he is going to come in and provide more stimulus.
With bernanke exiting in january, i think the sense of certainty the market has about stimulus always coming to the rescue is going to be over, and the market does not like uncertainty.
So i think we may see potential investors rushing for the exits and booking profits this year.
You write that rising rates might be the achilles' heel