Black thursday sales?
There was bad pr because they were open on thanks giving.
Do they see enough sales to diffuse that?
That prs side, retailers probably saw a reasonable amount of traffic -- bad pr aside, retailers probably saw a reasonable amount of traffic on thursday.
It has come up to 500 million this year.
We expect the numbers to be somewhere between 800 million and one billion this year.
When you put that in context, it becomes a footnote in the whole holiday season.
There are so many more -- it is a small number overall.
Was it worth it?
Not from a watching point of view.
Spending you get basically the same thing.
None of it made sense.
They had to do it.
It is a battle for market share.
No one can give up market share.
Everybody has got to do it once one guy does it.
Depending on the segment, it is good or bad.
If you are in the middle class segment, penney's , sears, it is bad.
Median income years ago was $57,000 a year, now $51,000 a year.
I can go on and on.
11 million people on disability.
People are hurting.
They are going to shop on thanksgiving?
Let's put it this way.
When you see walmart's comps down two straight quarters, that is 11% of u.s. sales.
They will not do well in the last quarter.
Target has announced they will not do well in the last corner.
These are the biggest companies.
Sears and penney's are dismantling.
It is bifurcated.
80% of americans are in a recession, it is not operate.
-- it is not all great.
A tough place to be.
What kind of foot traffic are you seeing at the mall?
Sounds like a security?
I am not messing around.
I am watching traffic unfold right through midnight.
He traffic has been there.
They had to promote to get people interested in the store.
By the same token, people are shopping.
One highlight is macy's. they are in the accessories section, michael kors, accessible luxury.
Walmart had negative quarters but target is challenging that there are signs of life.
We spoke with you this morning at 6:00. you have been there since several hours prior to that.
It sounded like there was not all that activity since 7:00 8:00, or 9:00. has it accelerated?
It has accelerated.
That is what i normally see.
I am seeing the normal black friday pattern.
The traffic does die off after 8:00 or 9:00. it picks up after 11:00. it will tail off after 6:00. the malls have done a great job.
The alarm keeps going off.
There seems to be shoplifting going on.
Bottom line, retail is going to raise promotions over the next two weeks.
If jcpenney is 40% off now, they will need 60% off to seal the deal.
All these discounts cutting into margins.
People do not have the money to be spending on retail.
What is it going to mean for the holiday shopping season overall?
Don't forget -- sales keep increasing on an adjusted for inflation basis.
The story for the holiday season is bifurcated.
Lots of loses, watts of winners, lots of good segment abbottabad segments.
What -- lots of winners, lots of losers, lots of good segments, lots of bad segments.
If there was not good ones, we would be in a depression.
This is 70% of the economy.
There will be segments that do very well.
The drugstore business will do very well, led by walgreens.
There are good segments but the bottom line is it is a very mixed bag.
Lots of retailers will be hurting.
Some of them are giants.
Usually when you come on the show you talk about the deep discounters, the guys who make walmart look expensive.
You have not mentioned them.
I would like 5 below in that group.
They will do ok, their return on investment is better than walmart.
They will do better.
Their customer has no money.
That is the problem in that group.
If somebody is used to coming in the store with $12, they are walking in with a dollars because they are working fewer hours.
We have the mentally deranged health care plan going crazy.
There is a lot going on.
The bottom line is that the poor are getting poorer.
1 out of 6 americans are in poverty, 1 out of 6 are one inch away from poverty, that is one part of america, the fastest- growing segment.
Why is retail at 35% year to date more than the market?
There are a lot of smart retailers.
You take macy's, they have traded up.
They got out of the middle.
Nordstrom is smart enough to be in the discount locker.
Their outlets are the fastest growing.
And a luxury.
Retailers are not the government, they are smart, they adapt, they move, nyfix balance sheets.
What about trading down?
People that do have money are shopping at walmart.
They are shopping at tj maxx because that is the giant of apparel.
The problem is the name customer of walmart is -- the main customer of walmart is making $51,000 who used to make $57,000. let me get bill martin back.
What do you think of the idea that there are going to be winners and losers.
The thesis howard is putting forward that the middle class is getting squeezed.
Walmarts are going to hurt this year.
I love listening to howard.
He is often right.
Taking a look at the retail segment, he is correct.
But we are going to see about a 2.4% increase in holiday sales this year compared to last year.
That is four years in a row that we have seen that kind of left.
What is lost in the headlines is that this will be the largest shopping season ever on record.
We will see some letters -- this is despite the lack of the extra six days.
The holiday season is from november 1 to december 31. you get 61 days.
You will see more sales in november.
You have to add up the whole season together.
The growth is four years compounded.
Consumers wait for the holiday season despite the fact that they might be short on cash, they will take on debt and do other things in order to participate.
This is a good point.
If you look at the growth versus 2004, total retail sales.
$60 billion for 2012, intro -- i n 2004, it was $20 billion.
That is three times.
Sales are up threefold for black friday.
Retailing is 70% of gdp.
56% if you take up a 13% for health care.
It is the biggest part of the economy.
Gdp growth is in the crapper.
We are going to grow.
Gdp is going to grow according to the government.
1.6%, 1.7%. and part is no real jobs.
When you get done with all of this stuff, 60 days, two months, six months, we do not have gdp growth.
And you cannot generate jobs.
Janet yellen testified.
She said she believes unemployment is is over 10%. i believe it is over 14%. when you look at these staggering numbers -- this is janet yellen.
This is where we are.
We do not have gdp growth.
Tell me how good it is.
60 days, 90 days, 10 days.
We have 2.8% gdp growth.
For this year, gdp growth will be under 2%. you generate nothing.
It is very tough.
60 days, nine days, 12 days.
We are not going to get gdp growth this year.
Putting $4 trillion on our balance sheet.
The biggest monetary stimulus and a history of the world.
We will continue talking with you, howard.
Thank you, bill martin and
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