The deluge of personal computers to cyber security.
The bright future they envision.
And cisco is betting on the internet of everything.
John chambers tells us at the center of it all is video.
And the u.s. stock exchange has a crises.
They face mobile competition.
The nasdaq ceo confronts destruction.
We're live from our world headquarters in new york.
I am scarlet fu.
Michael mckee is joining us.
Tom keene is in switzerland for the world economic meetings.
He will bring us great meetings all morning long.
You just wrapped up a conversation with michael dell.
He seems relaxed.
How was that talk?
It was very different from when he was in that battle about going public.
David kirkpatrick and michael dell will have that for you in a bit.
We will talk to the view for the markets.
I want to know from robert seinfeld where wall street in new york will be in the next five years.
We're going to start off with the morning brief.
That news out of china.
They have been inspecting a slowdown in.
We have suggestions that we're going to get contraction in chinese manufacturing.
Europe is going the other way.
Expansion is showing more than forecast.
They are not out of the woods.
Spanish unemployment comes in above 25% for the sixth month in a row.
Actually, 26%. not good news.
Here in the united states, we should get better news.
Jobless claims are out at 8:30. at 10:00, existing home sales.
Is the momentum continuing?
Earnings, before the bell -- lockheed martin, mcdonald's. union pacific, after the bell, microsoft.
A lot of interest.
Will they say anything about their ceo search?
The bad news out of china is driving the markets this morning.
We're seeing markets down across the board.
That is the case for u.s. futures.
They are down by five points.
It is also leading to a bit for treasuries.
The 10 year yield is lower.
We expected this data to show that the economy was slowing.
But not necessarily contracting.
It is a question of degree at this point.
That is also not be official number.
You are looking at getting down against the dollar.
Not sure why.
And gold prices are off here it and gas prices are elevated.
It is freezing here.
The polar vortex is going south.
Texas and louisiana are supposed get snow.
Hell is freezing over.
Tom keene is in the mountains.
I have a vacation in new orleans in two weeks.
I want them to be new orleans, not snowing.
Polar vortex come over to you.
Let's get to the front page.
We scour the papers.
It is not just china, it is also their internet outage.
They call it the big web crash.
The government says it was caused by a cyber attack.
That is after speculation that it was caused by a malfunction in the censorship.
That is the great firewall.
They treated to a small storefront in wyoming.
That is the front for a company that acts as a front for other companies.
The chinese are trying to block them.
Instead, they blocked their own.
They have the highest ratio of internet users to internet waste.
More than 600 million internet users.
That is not a next man.
They're controlling access in and out of the country.
It makes sense or step easier.
If you make that easier, it makes damage harder.
-- it makes controlling damage harder.
They have two points of failure.
When one fails, they have a problem.
In america, if anyone goes down, you do not have the same problem.
This with half of the world's internet users.
They cannot access the internet.
Imagine an internet of things.
Suddenly your fridge rater goes off grid not just not being open to observe -- not being able to open surfer juror.
We also want to get to our second front-page story.
Carl icahn is at it again.
He is targeting ebay.
He proposed that they split off of paypal.
He nominated to employees to the board.
He started building a stake this month.
He holds lesson one percent.
He is making noise, as always.
What does carl icahn bring to companies?
He seems to buy a stake, go on a network, and say they should do this.
Stock goes up, he cashes out and leaves.
You do not see much change in the companies.
Is a lot richer than i am.
I cannot define what his purpose is.
I do think he is right.
About paypal and ebay.
I have never understood what paypal -- i have never understood what ebay rings to a bow.
Bitcoin was always attached to silk road.
Sent silk road was shut down, bitcoin has flourished.
It is it own entity.
In a prefers way, you can come pair them.
There is no reason why -- paypal brings a lot to ebay.
There's no reason that the ability to verify transactions with a third party has to be tied to a market.
The synergy does not go both ways?
ebay is not doing as well as it should be.
Perhaps they're splitting off.
Paypal is one way to get there.
The final front page -- before we get to that, our twitter question of the day.
It has to do with what mike was just those in.
What does carl icahn do for companies that he takes a stake in?
Apple, all kinds of companies.
What does he do for or to companies that he invests in?
Let's get to the last front-page story.
Netflix is up 18%. trading higher in the premarket as well.
They beat assessments with growth numbers.
They also talked a lot about the possibility of raising prices.
I think this is interesting because they have been so careful about how they trot out this idea after a disastrous attempt at raising prices and splitting off services.
That led to a big crash.
In ireland, they were able to raise prices.
That gives them confidence going forward.
It is not just raising prices, but experimenting with different plans.
Like we're seeing with mobile phones.
You can pay various cures for various levels of service.
How many share your plan?
That is what they want to change.
They have an amazing facility and expand the broad red -- abroad.
9 million international subs cribers.
They have expanded quickly.
It is interesting to see how they've have been willing to embrace netflix.
They feel it they just provide a height.
If they can provide something good, good.
You do not have the conflict like you do here with verizon.
I think that that will be interesting to watch over the next year or so.
The comparison between how netflix forces.
And what the cable companies decide to do.
Nobody rises as a competitor.
Company news -- let's get to some other company news.
Ibm and lenovo making it official.
Ibm will buy a server unit.
The price tag is $2.3 billion.
This helps lenovo to diversify.
Analysts say they will grow their server business in china initially.
Regulators are looking into the berkshire hathaway -- they're trying to determine if the firm should be supervised by the federal reserve.
This evaluation is part of a move to identify which non-bank firms could threaten financial stability if they were to fail.
Toyota sold the most cars in the world for a second straight years.
Sales climbed to just under 10 million units worldwide.
They predict that they will cross the 10 million mark this year thinks to demand from the u.s. and china.
Jim placed second.
That is today's complaint is.
We want to head back to douglas, switzerland.
Tom is freezing.
You have a lot of great guests.
Gorgeous weather compared to the east coast.
A private interview with a very private michael dell.
He is the founder of dell.
We will talk about technology.
We will talk about the transaction of ibm and lenovo.
From the world economic forum's, from a cold new york, it is "bloomberg surveillance." ? this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu.
Tom keene is joining us from davos, switzerland.
He just spoke with michael dell, the ceo and founder of dell.
Also, david kurt after.
Ibm has served -- sold its server unit to live at novell.
You wanted to get michael dell's take on them.
Here's what he had to say.
There is a trend of consolidation.
We have been gaining share in the server space and the client space.
We got our pc tablet business growing.
We're doing that and servers.
You see consolidation.
This is another form of it.
Switching from the client only to client and server is a fairly significant shift in terms of the sales motion and the process in the company.
They will have some challenges.
Michael dell with david kirkpatrick.
We will have more of that.
Brendan greeley, what i thought was fascinating was that he still believes in the hardware.
When you hear a guy like him talk about the new software and about hardware, is that believable or is he just talking his book?
When you see ibm selling their server business to lenovo, it is clear that they have become a commodity.
I have a hard time taking him seriously.
Not just that -- go ahead tom.
The economics of this -- i find it fascinating.
These large transnational transactions.
How big of a deal is it that ibm is selling this piece to china?
It is who wants it.
Who is able to make money off of this business.
It leads you to believe that the cloud is taking over.
Probably not as much of an option.
It does not appear to be anything that will raise the national security concerns.
Can they come back to the united hates with these things?
We regulate where servers come from.
Very well said.
When you look at the financial transaction, you do this better than me.
What did you see?
What is the distinction about what we see this morning?
It speaks volumes.
They already have this relationship.
The due diligence went quicker than i would have with another company.
There are security issues they might not have seen otherwise.
It is interesting that leno though it's getting into servers.
They are still playing catch-up in the bid to move away from hardware.
Tom, i know michael dell also talked about hardware.
Why is it so important to dell's business?
The product hardware part is still an important part.
Value is shifting to new areas.
Services and software.
These are areas where we have invested tremendously.
We have done 30 acquisitions.
We have built a $21 million enterprise businesses.
We are intending to focus more on those areas.
Brendan greeley, i thought michael dell really sized up with david kirkpatrick and i were saying about apple.
What is the distinction between the dell approach to hardware and the apple approach?
? i think apple has moved beyond commodities.
We have seen that with mobile handsets.
We have not quite seen it with the tv.
Apple has proved that they can sell a piece of hardware and make it different from the other pieces.
I do not think they're alone in this.
If you look at the internet carriers, their business is becoming a commodity business.
They're trying to move into home security.
I think it will have trouble with this as well.
I do not see a good path.
Not to mention that they are part of an ecosystem.
The money that it creates around that -- dell does not have that.
They are part of a pc system that is dying off.
Everyone is shifting to android.
I wonder whether michael dell addressed the buzzwords that you hear.
Did he talk about that at all?
I got more of that from john chambers.
John chambers love to talk the jargon of the moment and transformation of technology.
I do not get that from michael dell.
He is an operational guide.
He is original in that sense.
He goes away from the jargon of the moment and spends a lot more time talking about how we're going to compete.
What will we do with 100,000 people to move forward?
Did he talk about jobs, whether they are hiring?
We do not give a lot of information because they are privately held.
He says morale is better.
He said he did not want to talk about the new dell.
Unlike john chambers who is a ceo.
We will share highlights of your interview later on.
Especially his thoughts on the internet of things.
At this point, we have to look at the cover of the new business week.
Look at the national security agency and how it uses data mining.
That is out on shelves tomorrow.
That is another big theme.
Of course, data mining.
If you miss any interviews, you can watch them on bloomberg.
This is "bloomberg surveillance." ? coming up, the ceo of blackstone.
Stephen schwarzman will sit down with erik schatzker.
Another titan of finance speaking with bloomberg.
This is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is in switzerland.
Mike mckee has our top headlines.
We start in china.
There are signs of a slowdown in manufacturing.
There are signals that manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months.
Economists say there is a slowing demand.
The lunar new year will be next week.
It is hard to pay attention to their eco-data this time of year.
Supporters shoved cash at the leaders of an antigovernment movement as he marched through the streets of bangkok for it it defied the recent crackdown on demonstrations.
They delayed elections, they also want the prime minister out.
Home sales in the hamptons -- bad news for those of you looking to sell.
496 sales, down in the fourth quarter.
The average price also fell 15%. in comparison, it was skewed by the fourth quarter of 2012. those are your top headlines.
I am glad you were able to sell.
I am all about timing.
Let's get to our morning must-read.
Brendan greeley is with us.
He picked a selection.
We have the author of a massive three volume biography of john maynard keynes.
He is returning to pursue happiness.
The argument for free trade is an argument for welfare.
Time is money.
The more money you can squeeze out of an hour, the better off you are.
The trouble is that the more you think about your welfare in terms of money, the more like you are to regard spinning time with your friends as an opportunity cost.
The loss of money you would've made by working instead.
This rang true because i used to work as a consultant.
I was paid hourly.
I used to calculate going to the movies in terms of the opportunity cost.
I think this is interesting.
The idea of looking beyond the utility of money is not new.
There is an older study of happiness.
What i do think is interesting is that he connects free trade to welfare.
Not usually a link that you see.
It is not.
Despite all of the things that we disagree about, we're greater free trade is a good thing.
You both sides of the aisle pushing to give fast-track authority to negotiate trade agreements.
You have him here pointing out that free trade is good.
It is good at maximizing gdp.
Maximizing gdp is one a measure of well-being.
It is not the only major.
When you look at that number, it does not mean that the population is happier.
It is interesting how banks are trying to rethink the way they built lions.
Not by the hour.
It has its own problems as well.
Let's begin my morning must-read.
It is on monetary policy.
It is from the global chief investment officer at guggenheim partners.
He writes about the fed history and how it is key to ben bernanke's legacy.
Any policy targeting one price -- inevitably distorts other prices.
The efforts to preserve the banking system will probably lead to rising asset prices.
It all becomes janet yellen's problem to resolve.
If she does not solve the problem, then there will be questions about bernanke's legacy.
She is the fed chairman.
She will be on the very first trip chairwoman.
A conversation with john chambers coming up.
This is "bloomberg surveillance." you are watching bloomberg tv.
We are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com.
? a still dark washington, d.c. incoming fed chair, janet yellen, will take over on february 1. she will take over the central bank.
I am scarlet fu with michael mckee in new york.
Tom keene is in switzerland at the world economic forum.
We will join him shortly.
Micah, start us off with a data check.
Is all about china.
Numbers have dominated the early trading.
S&p 500 futures are off i five points.
We're also seeing a move into treasuries.
The 10 year yield is lower.
Better than expected economic news.
The euro trading a bit higher.
Crude oil is down a bit.
We will call it unchanged.
We have been up on the back of the cold weather the last couple of days.
It is pushing natural gas.
Let's stay with the losing team.
Advanced micro devices -- a big decline.
The revenue mid point missed the consensus.
Pc weakness is a big driver.
They are intel's smaller rival.
Coach down six percent.
Sales dropped twice what estimated.
We are not buying enough handbags.
The weather has been a problem for them as well.
Coach has a problem.
Michael kors came along and there are -- they dropped off a lot.
John chambers sat down with tom and they talked about the future of interconnectedness.
This is cisco's future.
Here is what john chambers had to say about his plan to capitalize on the internet.
Cisco reinvents itself every 3-5 years.
We come out even stronger.
Where will we be next year?
We could be the number one i.t. company.
It is a $19 trillion contributor to business and society.
Over the next 10 years, that is more than the entire internet since conception by 110 fold.
Tom, air, and hans are all in switzerland.
It seems like a lot of these lofty numbers -- we're going to rely on the smart devices in the future.
You saw the headlines on bloomberg hd.
A lot of different companies really are having revenue battles.
I thought this was interesting.
You follow this more than we do.
Do you agree that there is a grove -- global lethargy?
They are monitoring the monthly stuff out of europe.
Do we believe the numbers out of china?
It seems like china is hanging over this congress this conference.
We are thinking we are missing something in china at the boulders.
-- as a bubble burst.
They are trying to figure out a global strategy.
Michael corbett is the new ceo of citigroup.
He talked about the new era thinking and how citigroup looks different than it did before.
You look at ray transitions.
They are never smooth.
We actually go into this one a bit that are then we have historically.
You have to remember that taper is taper.
It is not tightening.
It is removing what was put in as excess liquidity.
We are just getting back to where we think we should the.
Taper is not actually a tightening.
It is a taper.
His comments on what the new citigroup looks like is interesting.
They try to distinguish themselves from one another.
I would say that more than any other executive here, it is the different executive.
Eric, who was michael corbat 12 months ago?
100 days into the job.
All he could say was the right word.
That was what everyone wanted to hear.
That is still his mantra for 2014. i said really?
When will it not be execution?
The answer is never.
That is all that matters.
What is the corbat distinction?
This he have a bigger helicopter?
No, it is smaller.
The point that he wanted to make -- we had a fascinating conversation about universal banking.
Think about the citigroup that was.
That was the prototypical universal bank.
I said, do you think of citigroup as the universal bank?
He said no.
People should not think of us as a bank approved -- that provides everything to everybody.
That is an important distinction.
It says that we are now going to think about focus in a way that citigroup never did.
Hans, you are in berlin.
One of the problems is deutsche bank.
Tell us the mood in germany about their mother bank.
There is great concern about it.
There's concern about whether it will be supervised by someone more central in frankfurt.
There is a regulatory question.
Sunday night, the earnings come out.
The post a massive loss.
There's almost a sense of panic.
They do not have the revenue streams.
Talking about deutsche bank, what would you say to summarize american bank servings -- earnings?
It is all about cost control.
And getting out from under these legacy issues.
The right office.
The legal litigation that they need to take on.
It will be a theme.
Brendan greeley, i know he wants to jump in.
Have a question for the guys and dolls.
Yesterday, richard fisher described quantitative easing as beer goggles.
It makes everything look a little better.
Why are you asking affect question?
You are wandering around davos.
Are people wearing beer goggles or are they hung over?
Fischer has been in the washington office and meet productions.
He has been honest.
He has been honest but some have not been accurate.
In terms of procedure, he has not been the most accurate.
Tell us about the citigroup executive that is not here.
Michael o'neill, the out of the bank of hawaii.
We underestimate how much they need resurrection versus jb morgan.
Tell us about their relationship.
Croborbat is mike own meals man.
If anybody has forgotten, they now represent only six percent of the assets.
Michael corbat's success was getting rid of the things that they didn't want.
The need for strategic focus.
That is why they fold solomon smith barney.
This is the point.
He executed on strategy.
In on cost.
They shaved four percent of their operating expense in 2014 -- 2013. if the helicopter pad is ok -- it is fine.
It will only go 10 kilometers.
We will leave it there.
Hans nichols -- helicopter watch.
We will come back for the meetings in davos.
Don't forget, later this morning, stephanie ruhle will make an appearance in new york.
It is "bloomberg surveillance." ? good morning.
This is midtown manhattan.
Not light out yet.
At least it is not snowing.
Record low temperatures.
You can see that we are still cold here.
I am scarlet fu.
Here with michael mckee and brendan greeley.
We will start in davos talking about iran.
They say they won a nuclear agreement with the world powers.
That is at the world economic forum in switzerland.
Rouhani says the desire is strong, but hurdles may arise if other countries show a lack of serious will.
Factory output in the euro area expected -- expanded faster than expected.
More than one full point.
A separate report shows that manufacturing in germany asserting to a 32 month high.
German companies reported sharp growth in output and new orders.
A different story in china.
Purchasing managing index says that they contracted for the first time in six months due to slowing domestic demand.
Worker vacations ahead of the lunar new year may play a part in the drop.
That starts next week.
That trumps the good news from europe.
China continues to lead the way in market influence.
It is time for the single best char.
This is near and dear to our hearts.
Liberal arts grads.
We have closed the salary gap in the long term.
This is according to a chart from the inside higher ed publication.
What you want to pay attention to is the blue line.
That is the humanities and social sciences.
We start off with lower than the others.
Way behind engineering.
Science and math is the yellow line.
Also, professional paper business, which is the redline.
At peak earning age, liberal arts make 40,000 more than they did as recent grads.
We overcome the odds.
Mike mckee, dual major in economics and political science.
I am taking comfort from brandon's -- residents -- bren don's morning must-read.
We are happier, right?
I have a bachelors degree in german.
I am much happier.
They manage their expectations.
They realize that they cannot do what they thought they were going to do.
I moved to new york to translate german plays into english.
Not a demand for that.
I got myself into business journalism.
You adapt quickly.
A logical move.
If that chart were extended, perhaps we will maybe go past the natural sciences and engineering.
The most important caveat was that if you have just a bachelors, the effect is not felt.
You have to move into a graduate degree.
You are stuck.
Go back to school.
I only have a bachelors as well.
Let's look at some of the photos making news.
Protesters in kiev burned car tires on the third day of clashes.
Police responded to the fires with widespread use of tear gas.
We have a live look.
You can see the aftermath.
It looks like a war zone.
Now what you would expect from a city in ukraine.
It is more like a third world country.
This has been going on for weeks.
The government's attempt to turn toward the east is not going over well.
Paper for closer ties with europe.
A little more happy story -- we're talking about the super bowl.
Crews are already working hard to get the snow out of metlife stadium.
A week away from the super bowl.
They used to this as a test of their cold-weather contingency plan.
Had it been a real emergency, you would've been instructed to grab a snow shovel.
More than 600 tons of snow.
I heard there will be another snowstorm in the forecast.
They may have to move the super bowl to friday or monday.
I did not hear that.
We will have to check with our meteorologist friend.
Temperatures could be warmer.
It could snow right before him.
I had a friend comment that i don't know why we don't name these -- i don't know why we are naming the storms.
2013 is the year of the tech glitch for exchanges.
The nasdaq ceo will speak on the challenges ahead.
He is setting up with tom keene right now in switzerland.
There they are.
Tom keene and robert greinfeld.
You are watching bloomberg tv.
We are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com.
? this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is in switzerland.
But can you company news.
We start with nokia.
They have posted a fourth-quarter loss.
A loss in sales is getting the blame.
Overall, $34 million.
They say the profit margins will narrow.
Microsoft will let overseas customers store data outside of the u.s.. that is in response to concerns following news on the nsa surveillance program.
Other tech companies oppose the idea.
One executive says that it is necessary given the weeks.
And in news that just broke, ibm and lenovo have made it official.
Ibm is buying a server for $2.5 million.
This helps them to diversify.
Experts say they will focus on growing the server business in china initially.
That is company news from the files of "plume request." tom is in switzerland with a special guest.
Our discussion with robert greinfeld.
Nasdaq omx sounds like a movie that will be out for it what is that?
We did the acquisition five years ago.
We kept the name as part of our business.
What is unique about nordic exchanges?
How they perform.
The economy has done incredibly well.
We are the beneficiary of that.
It is about efficiency.
It is about execution.
The theme here is about forgetting the big vision.
What is your execution?
Great execution beats great strategy every day of the week.
We pride ourselves on our execution.
One of the things that we have done is invert our business to more recurring revenue.
We have 73% tied to recurring revenue.
23% on a transaction basis.
We like that portfolio.
We like the balance.
We had an outstanding 2013. the lights are bright when you or others around you, adjacent or tangential, they screw up and everybody calls you for the interview.
What have you learned?
We knew before.
It is hard to have responsibility without authority.
That is one aspect of our operations.
We had a strong year.
We have to learn from that and get a different governance model.
Within that, it has been interesting.
This is the year where we come to fruition.
Adopting of their regulations.
Are you prepared for the new global regulations?
When you look at what exchanges do, they there to promote transparency.
Will i see transparency injury this?
The jury this have great transparency.
The swap market will have increased transparency.
There is this idea that the fancy guy and davos does not want the transparency.
How do you respond to wall street?
Let's say they are stuck in 2006. fanta guys, ok -- fancy guys, ok.
I would say that there has always been a desire to keep things ok.
There are certain parties to get advantages from being opaque.
We have to look at all the participants in the marketplace.
For all of them to do well at the same time, transparency has to be the role of the day.
Here is my role.
The participants are cap drivers.
I do not hear them talking about the market.
Everyone is worried about a bubble.
There is no bubble when they are not deciding what to buy.
When you look at 2013, the market had a strong year.
You saw the index go up.
Four great years.
Last year was exceptional.
When you look at the pe ratio, it is right in line with the 10 year average.
Going to 13 was a regular bargain.
We feel good about that.
When we look at 2014, the market will do well.
It is going to be more of a stock tickers market.
The index is rising.
2014, i think the market will do well.
You have to be more careful with player selections are.
What is the new new in competition for listings?
It has been intense.
It is important for us to put together the package that makes the companies really have the listing of and be a great branding of and for them.
We do a unique job.
How does confidence come in?
Everybody plays you on facebook that can fourth.
I am fascinated by the discussion over the confidence and exchange.
What is that like with someone you're courting?
The nasdaq name is known worldwide.
I was traveling around different parts of europe before i came here.
It is remarkable how people see the nasdaq ran represented in growth, innovation, entrepreneurship.
That is why we have done so well.
What have you heard in the last two days?
The davos productions are generally wrong.
You see unbridled optimism as opposed to prior years.
I would say that optimism gets me concerned.
Maybe we need to be cautious.
My concern is a bowl of soup used to be $20. now it is $23. for ex report -- i cannot afford to spend money in switzerland.
It is outrageously expensive.
You see that, but there are your major peers for this morning.
That -- stronger dollar in the past two years.
It is gorgeous this morning in davos.
We look forward to checking in during the next hour.
Coming up, our exclusive sitdown with michael dell.
He is running a private company.
We want to get his vision of what he sees for his company and the industry large.
Our thanks to brendan greeley.
Thank you for joining us this morning.
And we have much more coming up.
An exclusive conversation with nouriel roubini.
They will take stock of the global economy.
This is "bloomberg surveillance." you are watching bloomberg tv.
We are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com.
? this is "bloomberg surveillance." dell moves from personal computers to cyber security.
Michael dell reveals how he will reinvent the company he founded.
Lenovo snaps up ibm pisces server business.
The top executive explains why they are staying in hardware and not rush into the cloud.
It has the global recovery finally taken hold?
We will ask dr.
Doom, famed economist nouriel roubini and ian bremmer.
This is "bloomberg surveillance" live from world headquarters in new york this morning.
I'm scarlet fu with michael mckee here in new york and tom keene is in davos, attending the world economic forum meetings.
Our guest host is scott galloway , a professor of marketing at new york university.
Let's start off with a morning brief.
Global risk watchdog, a great business card.
In china, a lot of talk about slowing and now we are seeing signs.
The manufacturing index signals surprise contraction as the chinese economy slowing down.
In europe, the euro area january factory output more than forecast, particularly in germany, 32-month high for the pmi.
Spanish unemployment stays above .5% for the sixth month in a row -- it hits 20 six percent actually.
And united states, earnings before the bell from lockheed martin.
The donald, union pacific -- after the bell, starbucks, discover, e trade and microsoft.
The question about who is going to be the next ceo.
8:30 a.m. this morning, initial jobless claims, 9:45 a.m., bloomberg consumer confidence and at 10:00 -- we saw falling existing home sales in november and now we will find out about december.
I want to pick up on microsoft.
The ceo discussion is front and center but in terms of what analysts are looking for, anticipating a six percent increase in full-year sales for 2013. the eps number is $.68 -- you want to keep an i on is $.68 per share for the fourth quarter.
But the ceo search will dominate the conference call.
I galloway of nyu, you sat on boards before.
Let's talk less about what it means for microsoft because we don't have an answer yet.
They are still searching.
But more on the impact on other companies.
So many names have been floated.
Whether alan mulally, or the ceo of qualcomm.
That has to be disruptive for those companies.
The only person it is good for is the ceo in question.
Isn't necessarily good news, though?
At the end of the day that person has more leverage.
Like being named to be let -- vice president.
You accidentally leak you are being considered by's president, so there is not a lot of downside.
If you notice alan mulally's language, he says i have no intention, no plan.
He never said i am not going to.
I think the ford board, you need to sit down when it happens with your ceo and say, are you leaving with the girl who brought you or not?
If you are going to leave, tell us now, or eat -- if you are not sure, come to a decision.
It creates all sorts of havoc.
People start thinking, should i be the next ceo of this firm?
Planning is difficult.
And attention is diverted.
It is hugely distracting.
-- hugely distracting.
Board me to hold them accountable and say you have to come to a decision fast.
Betty liu asked him about it, he said the board is moving at a deliberate pace.
From the outside it sounds like they cannot find anyone to take the job.
What is it like being a board member and people do not seem enthusiastic about coming to you?
These are big shoes to fill.
Could you imagine trying to please shareholders, a person who could largely be credited with what would be -- i would not call it a turnaround but this is a company on the verge of either -- we will look back and say that microsoft is still one of the most dominant companies in technology and had a bit of a rough patch or basically it was the decline, this is where the decline accelerated.
It is sort of hard to tell which way microsoft -- they missed a pretty big things.
Search thomas social, and mobile.
-- search, social, and mobile.
Then you have to get past bill gates.
Not an easy process.
Is this lou gehrig's syndrome, the man who placed babe ruth?
Could you imagine trying to please those constituencies and be the person they almost won it?
And the person almost has to have serious chops and mobile.
It is a really short list because there are not so many mobile firms and the majority are losing share.
Once you get outside of samsung, outside of apple, where'd you go?
Mobile certainly air hurdle for so many companies.
Scott galloway from nyu professor, marketing expert, we will continue our conversation.
But i do want to turn to our exclusive conversation with michael dell.
He also missed the boat on mobile.
He sat down with tom keene and david kirkpatrick earlier today in davos.
Listen to what he told tom and david about the new data economy.
The product hardware part is still an important part.
The value is certainly shifting to new areas, though.
Services, software, these are the areas where we invested tremendously.
We have done 30 acquisitions in the last five years.
We built $21 billion enterprise businesses in these new areas, and certainly as a private company we are absolutely intending to focus more on those areas.
Before you jump in with some questions -- the michael dell ad on television now is a home run deep to left field.
You went back and went back to where all these companies potentially started.
I had goosebumps.
I can tell you i cried -- for going to the shape of the evolving pc and what do you have in your head and how significant is this kind of advice to where it is all going?
The new eight inch tablet.
Hold it for the camera.
Is this a shameless plug or what?
Here is the keyboard, if you want one of those.
This is an eight inch tablet.
It is also a full pc.
It runs microsoft office.
You take it with you.
You come back to the office and you attach it to a full monitor and you take it with you.
Is this where the whole industry is going now?
It is interesting -- i think the death of the pc has been talked about quite a lot.
It turns out there are still a million of these devices sold every single day.
Are you kidding?
The competition bases in india is an example.
This has been hugely successful.
How do you differentiate here versus the person after mr.
Steve ballmer will do or what apple is doing?
What is the distinction of this product versus a more high-end apple or what microsoft is doing?
Our tablet business is really taking off in -- has really taken off in 2013. doubled in the first quarter, second quarter doubled again, third to fourth about tripled.
There is certainly product differentiation, and services.
The real issue is how do you integrate this securely into a company's operations and make it work?
It is not just about the product.
It is about software and services and understanding how it works within a company to really make people more productive.
Part of being private, michael, you are going to try to shift the lion share of your revenue to software services or are merely as a hardware company, say, in five years?
We would love to see our other businesses grow that fast.
We still have a very substantial business in hardware.
But i will tell you, it is a good business for us.
And it is a great foundation for us to build relationships.
An entree into something else.
Into cyber security, systems management, information management.
We are entering this whole age of the data economy.
Tom, i like the spin he used -- hardware is a great foundation.
Everybody trying to get away from hardware.
That has been the debate.
There has been a lot of discussion about the future of hardware.
I thought david kirkpatrick was particularly smart on that.
Also what is interesting is it is such a different conversation that what you have when you talk about apple.
The price differentials that mr.
Dell is the work on versus what mr.
Cook has to work on are just huge.
We are off-camera, scarlet, and michael dell is really taking a distinction between revenue production and unit sales.
These guys are hypersensitive to the differences between how much they make on price and how much they make by selling more units.
Did you see whether he whipped out a mobile device, will kind it was?
That is his new dell tablet that sells so well in india and other nations.
Again, it is about price.
It is under $300, which makes it a completely different discussion than buying something from apple.
They want to grow one that.
The mystery is out.
I don't pretend to be knowledgeable on this, but there is a real difference of opinion and debate over the future of dell tablet.
Speaking of real divide over the future, you will be joined later on i nouriel roubini and ian bremmer.
What are you going to talk about that?
We could go a complete our with them talking about the g-zero davos, a lot of the politics.
What i want to learn from them is the idea is whether we have reached escape velocity into the global economy.
We are in davos, switzerland, and in frigid, new york.
Good morning, everyone.
It is "bloomberg surveillance." ? ? mrs.
"bloomberg surveillance ." i'm scarlet fu with michael mckee in new york and tom keene is in davos.
Shares of ebay up three percent in the premarket after carl icahn call for ebay to sell some of its businesses.
He spoke with trish regan about why, and here is what he said.
There is no reason they should be together at this point.
In our opinion, i think it will be helped i a management team that is separate and can go its own way.
And i think the multiple would go up dramatically and also the help of the company would be better.
Carl icahn, activist investor . our guest host, scott galloway, carl icahn called for the splitting off of paypal.
Is there a synergy between paypal and ebay?
Does it make sense?
Carl is absolutely right.
Paypal is a joke or not.
Grew 19% last year versus ebay, which -- paypal is a juggernaut.
You know we used to own the discovery card?
They talked about the synergies.
One person benefits, the ceo, because they get to smooth out earnings.
Make it to diversify.
But here is the issue -- investors do not need the ceo's to diversify for them.
They want them losing sleep, they want them focused, accountable.
Spinning off paypal would actually be a creative to shareholders.
It would be the right thing to do.
Probably will not happen.
There is not a long-term value to combining payments and sales?
As people move more toward the web for all their shopping?
And there is probably vertical integration.
I think early on the paypal got its training wheels from a captive customer in ebay.
There've probably a lot of customers who avoid paypal because of the tight relationship with ebay.
Paypal is really the payment system of the future and you are talking about an unbelievable juggernaut that would have a higher multiple.
It should absolutely be on its own.
Carl icahn also sounded off on apple.
Here's what he said.
There is nothing wrong with the management of apple.
Let me get it straight.
I can't necessarily say that about ebay, but i will say it about apple.
I just take that the board is just plain wrong in not taking advantage of a very undervalued situation at apple and not using that capital to actually help the smaller shareholder.
There is nothing wrong with apple but you need to pay shareholders more through dividends.
Thank god carl is looking out for the small shareholder.
I think in both instances he is right.
The lever of cash they have is a little over-the-top.
Certainly carl icahn of pushing for that to be dispersed.
Scott galloway, are destined for the hour.
We will be back and head over to davos on the lenovo-ibm deal.
? ? good morning, everyone.
From davos, switzerland.
From new york city, it is "bloomberg surveillance." the news of the day.
Without question, the global transaction of the moment.
Lenovo, the chinese computer company, they are acquiring ibm's server unit for $2.3 billion.
Many think it is a bargain.
For more, we have with us in davos meeting with his clients and customers, jerry smith, senior vice president of lenovo for the americas and i am honored to be here with friends in the quad, my colleague from london.
Rate to have you here.
-- great to have you here.
Right to the point -- a transaction waiting to happen.
It was a transaction that sort of maybe was going to happen months ago.
What is different now?
What changed as you came to today?
I think the plan transaction will leverage full company strengths.
We are a great hardware device company.
We successfully integrated the pc business we bought in 2005, revenue up a thousand percent.
We went from nothing and market share to number one pc company.
This really expands our pc-plus strategy of us being a device company.
Phones, tablets, enterprise -- i know you want to go into the details, but color for us the idea of negotiation over price.
You go back and forth on any given party on a transaction and you argue about the price point.
What was distinctive in this transaction?
I think both companies know each other very well.
We have been a long partner with ibm and we will continue to be a strategic partner.
They are a friend -- i would say they are a friend.
Exclusive, ibm is lenovo's friend.
Of this is a planned -- and we have been through acquisitions before and we are happy to work with the regulatory agencies.
We are a trusted and proven supplier.
Do you think you blew what -- do you think you will have to give concessions?
Too early to say.
We will work diligently with regulatory agencies across the board.
Tell us about imperfect competition -- john chambers and michael dell joined us today.
Everybody dealing with price dynamics.
You guys are like the wheat farmer in kansas, and that there is hardware and price keeps going down and down and the only ones of the planet who want to do this are lenovo.
What do you see that ibm and others don't see?
Number one, we have a great strategy.
We are excellent in execution.
We have a world-class supply chain.
We have outstanding execution.
And we innovate.
And we are also one of the few companies that vertical he integrate manufacturing.
We build our own factories.
We have factories in the carolina.
We brought d.c. manufacturing in the u.s. for the first time.
We have facilities in mexico, china.
Partnerships as well.
We have a unique cost advantage that others don't have.
What was ibm getting wrong?
Italian accents -- you combine ibm technology -- great team and products.
With our expertise in supply chain and execution, it is a great marriage.
We will be able to bring a whole new efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
I think what we want to get that is, what these transactions, they are pushing away -- ibm is saying no, no, no, and it has just become so hyper defined a business.
I think what it is, they are good at certain things and we are good at certain things.
Both of us as partners know that.
This is our strength.
We are playing to our strength.
We are playing to the fact that we know we are a good hardware device company.
And to be honest, we talk about the margin pool -- this is a bigger margin.
As and pcs.
We are exciting.
16 will you expand the business?
Have you thought about where?
Our goal at lenovo is always to grow -- to premium in the market.
That is what our executive team and ceo -- we will be at -- aggressive in expanding a business.
To your point, competition is good for the business.
This will bring value to the customer.
You got to have a financial statement that is appropriate.
Ubs out this morning talking about an equity raise.
Can we make some news here in the police, and outpost?
Do you need to do an equity raise?
I will say that from april strategic perspective it brings a probable opportunity for us than in the past.
Picking up on the margin -- whether operating margin or ebitda, how much magic or pixie dust?
You did not think the question would be like this.
The reality is, we are in a tough pc business.
We operated well.
We have grown revenue.
Pti has outgrown -- ebitda, sorry.
Last quarter, profits grew 30% and revenues grew 15%. we are scaling from revenue perspective.
From a server perspective we think it is the same opportunity.
But we are about 4x the margin opportunity we have an pc.
46,000 employees, over 2000 in america.
How do you brand lenovo in the united states five years forward?
It is delayed name we are uncomfortable with.
How do you change that?
From the consumer perspective, we have a lot of ground to work on.
I called impact product line.
From a commercial perspective, we are number one in commercial.
Everyone knows thinkpad.
Customers have asked us, expand your enterprise and server portfolio more.
This gives those customers would are targeting the ability to have a bigger portfolio.
My idea, the lenovo super bowl halftime.
Just a football game in america.
I know, i know.
Thank you so much.
? ? this is "bloomberg surveillance." breaking news.
Justin bieber arrested early this morning for drag racing and dui in miami beach.
You're looking at a live shot.
19 years old.
He was in a rented lamborghini.
Who rents a lamborghini to a 19-year-old?
Aren't people who get in trouble supposed to have better music?
That will come in a few years time.
His detention sure -- redemption tour.
I'm scarlet fu with michael mckee and tom keene is an davos, switzerland.
We will get a lot more serious about transportation.
Railroad operator norfolk southern posted fourth-quarter profit topping estimates thanks to higher shipments of chemicals, automotive and agricultural products.
The company also boosting its dividend, helping push it stock price to a record high.
Joining us from virginia, norfolk southern chairman and ceo.
Good to see you again and congratulations.
Because you seem to have shifted gears.
A lot of railroads suffering because coal is dropping off as a shipment, but you managed to increase your general merchandise shipment.
I am wondering if that is because the economy is picking up or you targeted those particular items to replace coal?
Thanks for having me this morning.
I think some of both.
But i would focus right now on the economy.
The railroads are running very well and our service is good, but we are starting to see i think the economy pick up a little more.
We are optimistic that 2013 -- 2014 will be a stronger year for the u.s. economy and that obviously benefits a lot of folks, including norfolk southern.
One of the things in the general merchandise category you move more of his automobiles.
Some concern about autos having peaked for the year.
A you concerned about that?
Right now we see the automobile business as obviously back from the lows where it was.
And we still think there is room to run.
You look at the forecast for vehicles to be produced in the country, and they are up a little more this year.
Our business was up because not only of the general production but because some of the models of the plants we serve are up.
We have been very competitive in terms of getting some good service to those companies." x, -- how much of your bottom-line result is the result of oil prices going down?
They have stabilize in the outlook is for lower prices going forward.
As you know, we, like all transportation companies, have a fuel surcharge.
The fuel surcharge has a lag.
This quarter, there was a positive effect of the lag but over the year that effectively washes out.
We think that whether fuel prices go up or down, it does not have much of an effect on results.
Although obviously if fuel prices start to go up a lot, we become more and more competitive because of our fuel efficiency.
Wick, i want to broaden this out.
Warren buffett's investment in burlington northern i give-and-go made railroads -- five years ago made railroads and attractive sector.
I am wondering if there are misrepresentations or misperceptions about investing in rail?
What do people most get wrong?
I guess people think the railroad industry is an old line, stable business.
Actually we are very technologically adept.
We are very focused on service and a lot of shippers are not quite as familiar with the great service story of the railroad industry these days.
And a lot of people just don't realize how much of the nation's economy we move.
We are an absolutely integral part of everything that happens in this country.
So, we are much broader, much more sophisticated than i think a lot of people understand.
And as the economy grows, as fuel prices go up, as the highways become more and more congested, we are going to play more and more of a part of this nation's transportation infrastructure.
How do you deal about the concerns over shipping of oil and chemicals after the disasters in 2013? there are three things we are working on in particular with crude oil -- although, as you know, there are other hazardous materials we handle.
First, the rails have a great safety story in terms of reduction of accidents, in terms of investments, and our record in safety is extraordinarily good.
But we are still working on getting better.
That is number one.
We've got to understand exactly what this crude oil is.
There are questions about how it is composed.
And we have to make sure as a broad industry we are shipping it in the right kind of car.
And there is a lot of conversation with the regulators and industry about that as well.
Wick moorman, thank you very much, from norfolk southern.
Optimism about the economy going forward.
In terms of economic data coming up this morning, jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., and we also have existing home sales and the leading index.
Futures are trading lower, down about six points right now.
This is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television, radio, streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg.com.
I michael mckee with scarlet fu in new york.
We want to send it out to tom keene in davos, switzerland.
So busy, michael mckee, we get him for five minutes in davos, our annual visit with nouriel roubini and er grammar -- em grammar -- ian bremmer.
The amplitude of the crisis.
The money question is, have we reached escape velocity?
Have we yet to read to the moma where we can say it is behind us?
The worst of the crisis is behind us in terms of financial risk.
The eurozone break -- lower probability of a eurozone break up, hard chinese landy and a war between israel and iran on the nuclear issue.
Growth will improve -- but still weaker in the eurozone and japan.
I do not think growth -- it will be better than the last years.
There will be a slack and good the labor market.
Inflation will remain low and central banks will be accommodated.
You are front and center in the mystery of this davos, and that we really do not understand what the emerging markets are doing.
The eurasian group prism.
How are the emerging markets question are there talking about the united states, but more optimistic year than the last few months.
Thailand, you see kiev this morning -- there is an ian bremmer story that no one is talking about.
When the forecast of economic growth of two of the four bricks is lower than the united states, you have to ask yourself what you doing in emerging markets.
The fact is, with all of these elections in 2014, and concerns that growing middle classes have serious demands on the government and those governments are not very well quit -- equipped to meet them, you will see lower growth.
Nouriel, you came out of wonderful academics in italy, you went to harvard and the white house.
He always talk about inequality.
The cap we actually do something about wealth and income dispersion?
The facts behind the rising income inequality is complex.
Technological innovation is becoming more capital intensive -- so we are labor shedding because of this.
Trade, 2.5 billion chinese and indians global there's joining the global labor force.
And now even white-collar jobs.
And then you have the effects -- if you are a superstar in your own field, whether economist or journalist or a political scientist or lawyer or banker, your market is not 10 million people, it is seven billion people.
And it leads to benefits to the top.
Can we do something about it?
Eventually either we do something in terms of training or education -- or eventually backlash.
It is true that the markets have expanded a great deal, but of course, the markets are not 7 billion and the fact is lots and lots of those folks are not in the market really yet at all.
One of the most interesting statistics i have seen coming out the last couple of days is the top 85 people in the world make as much in total income --nouriel on the list -- as the bottom three point 5 billion.
That is a fairly stark number.
And yet it is not one we are really hearing about in davos at all.
It is really not that much sirius talk.
How do you respond to the one percent and the 99%? is the media one percent -- is the focus legitimate?
One percent is entirely too large in number to focus on.
I focus on a number much smaller than that.
The question is not what is happening to the broad emerging-market middle classes, because those folks are emerging.
It is much more what is happening in advanced economies with larger unsustainable unemployment.
We've got to continue this conversation.
Ian bremmer has talked way too much compared to nouriel roubini.
We will come back to nouriel roubini and get a perspective on a better global economy.
Even ruby me and bremmer on the edge of optimism -- roubini on the edge of optimism.
It is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning.
? ? breaking news to tell you.
The u.s. panel report on the nsa surveillance program will be released at 1:00 p.m. one headline is the panel found nsa phone records collection to be illegal.
There are already voices out of washington criticizing pretty mike rogers who handles the house intelligent -- leads the house intelligence panel on happy about it.
Obviously this will be a major topic for congress to deal with in the coming session.
That report could be released at 1:00 p.m. eastern time.
We've got "in the loop" anchor betty liu with us.
Coming up very shortly.