Commerzbank May Face Penalties in Sanctions Probe

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July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Commerzbank AG, Germany’s second-largest lender, will probably be the next bank to resolve alleged U.S. sanctions violations, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Hans Nichols reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Hans nichols joins us from berlin and the dissension is that this $500 million would be part of a deferred prosecution agreement with authorities and there will be no felony conviction on mike what we saw with bnp paribas.

Scarlet, you just missed a great opportunity to use the term "for loney is intense," because that is what this is about.

There are two really relevant questions.

Is half $1 billion the floor or the ceiling, and is half $1 billion a potential fine against deutsche bank?

Yeah, half $1 billion is a lot of money for a commerzbank.

What will the pressure be on them and their shareholders?

Hans, 70% of commerzbank is owned by the -- 17% of commerzbank is owned by the german government.

Commerzbank is in many ways treated just like deutsche bank.

There are no special rules really for commerzbank.

Again on all of this, think of the numbers we're talking about.

Asset billion dollars is a lot of money.

Bnp paribas -- $9 billion.

What you have to do to turn this into an outbreak of equation, solve for x. i know adam johnson eestnet scores and high school.

You have defined what x is and see what deutsche bank is going to end up owing.

Is this extortion?

Is that wodrd being used by a german or french or swiss authorities?

In germany not quite yet.

Again, the number is lower.

The other -- the level of public sort of outrage here in germany was nothing like you saw in france with $9 billion for bnp paribas.

They are not comparable.

The question are all of this is -- did these banks actually do wrong, and if they did were wrong, what should be fine be a question of systemic importance?

Should you be worried about the health of the european economy or do you worry about u.s. sanctions law?

Hans, doing a little bit of algebra, it looks like the bnp paribas slightly more than one years worth of profit.

If it is happy billion dollars of commerzbank, it would be about half a year's worth of profit.

Rough numbers.

I want you to do that same calculation with a train leaving from paris in a train leaving from frankfurt, one has haven't billion dollars in cash, the other has $9 billion.

Where do they meet?

Luxembourg?

Seriously, where are they coming up with these numbers?

A full year's profits come i have to years profits -- it is kind of all over the place.

It seems to me like it is violations-based.

But to get back, this is where we need shoe leather from l mattingly and great reporters in washington.

What is the department of justice's calculation?

Most of these numbers appear to be leaked from the prosecution side, from justice, so they could just be using these numbers as a settlement game.

Look at how the numbers were all over the place at bnp.

First it was $5 billion, that it was up to $16 billion.

They settle on $9 billion.

It seems like there is some prosecution gaming going on here, but we have got to figure out what they think the violations were.

Hans, you mentioned deutsche bank maybe next was up i know stockton is next.

The political climate in france, the anger is different than in germany.

Talk about that for a minute.

Well, here is what will happen in france -- you will see public outrage, high levels in the government take it up to the highest level of the u.s. government, and we saw what president obama's response is.

He does not control the department of justice when it does criminal investigations, so there will be a lot of fulminating.

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.

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