China Won’t Have a Hard Landing: Martin

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March 31 (Bloomberg) –- Capital Economics Asia Economist Daniel Martin discusses China’s economy and the Yuan with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

This year.

Let's focus on the key area.

General martin joins us from singapore.

It is good to see you this morning.

Let's talk about that one way that that people have been betting on.

That is all over.

What does the next year bring?

Definitely the central bank has decided that they come here betting on the yuan.

I do not think this is a complete change in tactic.

I think we'll see it continue to appreciate over the medium-term.

Investors keep hiring in.

A keeps the currency down.

The big star at the moment is what is going on in the economy.

They are likely to show a very weak number again.

We have a flash pmi that shows a very strong contraction in the manufacturing or.

This has investors where read.

It is slowing.

That is a big thing.

That is the thing.

You have janet yellen telegraphing that interest rates are going to rise as well.

Group coming out the past couple of days saying that the yuan is like a going to see the kind of volatility.

There is a lot of uncertainty.

They lead toward this global cycle.

The fed is tapering.

This is a very uncertain time.

You talk about rising the bad debts over chinese banks.

This is in that realm where there should be panic signs flashing.

We do nothing for the moment that this is on the cards.

We think it is possible the authorities in china have realized this is the problem.

They are trying to reduce credit growth.

The question is whether it has already gone too far.

For the moment, we do not think we're there.

It is doubly a risk.

Are you as optimistic about japan?

I do not think so, no.

This is probably going to be quite upbeat.

We have the sales tax kicking in april.

This will be quite strong.

This will be very weak.

The question will be what the economy looks like we'll make it through this and whether the sales tax is causing all this volatility.

It'll look like it is going to miss the 2% target.

It will be forced into rolling out some more stimulus.

This will happen around the october meeting.

Stimulus for japan.

What about rba?

No stimulus?

Not for the moment.

At the last meeting, they said as long as the economy continues to develop its ease stability and interest rates.

There's not been any data out of their recently that would leave it to change that view.

The question is what happens in a few months time.

The slowdown in australia has not really kick in yet.

We start to see that in the third and fourth quarter.

We do not think this will be enough to take over from the slowdown in mining investment.

I'm looking at one interest-rate cut as a central bank tries to

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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