Can Ukraine President Yanukovych Stay in Power?

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Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) –- BlackRock Emerging Markets Senior Investment Strategist Gerardo Rodriguez and Kennan Institute of Advanced Russian Studies Deputy Director William Pomeranz discuss the peace pact between the Ukraine President and opposition leaders and what the next steps will be for the country. They speak to Matt Miller and Julie Hyman on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Likely it is that this agreement will hold, that we will see a truce.

Is it necessary for the president to step down or be forced out of office?

At this point, it's very difficult a sale to medley what will happen.

If you look at the sequencing of events, there has been significant changing and direction.

At this stage, it becomes really hard to see how things are going to ultimately stylize.

Was fortunate to see good news today with the news but we will have to watch this on a day-to-day basis.

Bill, what is the likely we see the president staying in power?

All of the other recent arab spring countries, the leader has had to leave or been forcibly ejected.

Will that be the case here as well?

It's open to speculation.

He's made a short-term agreement which is his only way to stay in power.

They've reverted back to the 2000 for constitution and he's agreed to early elections.

There will be an investigation into what has occurred in kiev over the last 48 hours.

His been losing support rather genetically over the last 48 hours.

This is his one chance to stay in power.

He still has lots of obstacles and there are ways he could be derailed in the progress.

Do think there is support from his cronies as well?

We're waiting to see to what extent the old guard will be peeled away.

He has clearly lost some support in his political party.

He's in a very difficult position and i think if the economy continues to go downward, he will really be in an impossible place to try to remain to be in power.

Gerardo, the backdrop is the relationship between russia and the west.

Is this the latest symptom of a cold war situation?

How does that affect your decision when it comes to investing in that part of the emerging markets?

The timing of these events are very unfortunate because of what's going on in the old emerging markets.

Clearly, the ukraine has one particular situation with the deficit increasing and gas prices adding to their external accounts.

With a philly fixed exchange rate, the reserves are going down very rapidly.

Their ability to pay is being questioned significantly and with these witnesses -- weaknesses, you have a combination that is very unfortunate.

It is happening at a time also in which you are having significant challenges in other places with nominal rigidities.

Julie's point is a good one.

You have problems specific to this part of the emerging market.

Russia blocking our efforts and syria, harboring edward snowden, food and clamping down on free speech and gay rights.

It seems there may be the start of -- i don't want to say cold war, but definitely worse than it's been an russian-u.s. relations than i can remember.

The ukraine only represents close to 2% of fixed income.

There is no contagion.

It is just a situation that needs to be addressed.

It is a very local.

So far, investors have been preparing.

Let me get your take on this.

Is calling it a cold war going at weight too far?

I don't think we are at the cold war stage yet.

Russia has been helpful in the sense that they worked on the syria issue and on the iran issue.

There have been some hard-line statements from russia, but i think of the the last 24-48 hours, there were signals from russia that it did not want an unstable and collapsing ukraine on its borders.

They sent a representative to

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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