No, i don't think so, because i think reading the signal as somehow strong is a mistake.
It actually was not as bipartisan as the last time the senate passed amnesty in 2006. this time, a smaller percentage of republican senators voted for the amnesty and a larger percentage of the democrats did.
It has actually become more of a partisan issue.
Therefore, it seems to me actually less likely that republicans in the house would be moved in any way by this vote.
We saw the partisan lines, right?
When we started seeing issue only immigration bill get marked up in the judiciary committee and the house, whether voting was very much along party lines.
Even though the immigration issue in the public is really more of an elite versus the public eye and vision, it not screw as much right or left among regular voters.
Among elected officials, it has become increasingly a democrat versus republican issue.
The republicans have the majority in the house, and it does not mean there is no chance that something could pass.
Not dead in the water?
Well, the senate bill as it is clearly dead in the water but it does not mean something similar to that could not come up if speaker boehner wanted to push it.
The question is, will the heed the wishes of the majority of the republicans that -- in a house or not.
So far he has said yes.
But until the event actually happens, we will have to say -- see.
What issue would likely pass as part of immigration reform?
More narrow targeted issues i think would have a good chance of passing.
Something that addresses, say, even verify -- e-verification system that employers use when they hire new people to make sure they are not illegal immigrants.
Or, on the other side, some kind of amnesty for illegal immigrants who came here as young children.
That actually is pretty popular.
The dream act.
Although the dream act itself is actually more expansive but how's the be comfortable with.
The targeted measures like that could actually pass, but the senate democrats and the president do not want to pass them.
They want an omnibus bill that is 1200 pages long rather than targeted measures that take small steps in the right direction.
One -- what is it about the dream act?
Became rationale for the dream act is it is for you legal immigrants he came here as kids and grew up here -- the key rationale for the dream act.
Said they are americans in everything but paper work.
But the dream act account for people who came here before their birthday.
I have teenagers.
They are not adults, but their identity is already formed by that point.
If the dream act up like a kid who came here before they were, say, seven years old or 10 years old, that would be a very different thing and i think a much more persuasive piece of legislation.
Especially if it had enforcement elements combined with it.
It is one aspect of an -- immigration reform, though.
As he said, and more narrow version that can get that bipartisan support.
The problem is, it has always been used as kind of a rationale or a prop or the larger amnesty.
A use all that yesterday in this eight minutes before the vote -- use all that yesterday in the statements before the vote, where senator harry reid and others said we needed to pass this bill because of some particular person who came here at three months old.
Ok, let's set legislation that covers these kinds of people instead of all 11 billion illegal immigrants?
That is a bit hard to do.
No, it isn't, actually.
The dream act has been around for a while.
It has not succeeded.
But there is actually, a -- i think, a significant amount of support for something like the dream act that has enforcement combined with it.
But the problem, like i said, is the administration and the democrats in the senate want to use the young people as an excuse for the broader amnesty.
Mark, what have you learned about the republican party and the gop through this immigration debate so far?
I am afraid one one thing we have learned is that republican senators are eager to sell out their constituents and will only say what people want to hear at election time.
That is not shocking with regard to politicians.
What it really is remarkable when you look at the republicans who voted for this amnesty.
Almost everyone of them has had strong on the record statements opposing amnesty.
But that was at election time.
Once if they were safely reelected, of that goes out the window.
Let's say we don't get any kind of immigration pass or we get very little passed in the house.
What is the impact for the gop?
Has the gop lost the hispanic vote then?
Look, republicans get about a quarter or a third of the hispanic vote, and always have.
There was no spike in hispanic vote for republicans after the last amnesty.
What republicans need to do is reach out to all voters, including hispanic american voters, with whatever message about job creation or middle class -- healthcare, education, all that stuff.
That is what voters are interested in.
The idea that immigration is some kind of magic to let -- bullet and hispanic voters would flock to the republican party if republicans vote for it is silly.
And the other thing is, a lot of existing republican voters would be demoralized and much more likely to stay home if the amnesty passes.
Mark, thank you for joining me.
Mark krikorian on immigration reform.
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