Bigger GOP Divide Coming After Shutdown: Clifton

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Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Dan Clifton of Strategas Partners and Stan Collender, national director of financial communications at Qorvis, talks about the political divide in the Republican party, the role of public opinion polls in how the shutdown proceeds and what comes next for President Barack Obama in trying to avoid the debt ceiling. They speak on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Morning and how urgently are they awaiting the first polls on this government shutdown?

I would start off by saying you will start seeing a bigger divide in the republican party over the next few days.

The conservative wing pulled john boehner in a direction he did not want to go and they wanted to have this fight on the debt ceiling where they had more leverage on the continuing resolution so you will see that cracks widen in the next few days.

When you look back to 1995, you started to see the approval rating of both resident litan in and the republican congress in the initial run.

-- both president clinton and republican hungers in the initial run but then it started to turn around while the blame went to the congressional republicans.

The longer this goes on, the harder it will be on the republicans.

What will you be watching this morning?

The first thing is -- what are people waking up to?

People are waking up to such incredible volleying going back between the two political parties and voters don't understand that.

They will wake up this morning and see a government shutdown on their screen and it is about the psychological impact of the greatest nation on earth and their legislators cannot agree on the budget.

We know the phones on capitol hill will be ringing off the hook.

You can see live pulling on a daily basis in this day and age and you see how the blame is falling.

What we are watching is the generic ballot.

Who do you want to run congress?

The presidents overnight rating and who you want to run congress will be very telling.

Most shutdowns are only a couple of days long because the outrage starts right away.

You hear a lot of talk about republicans being hostage takers and we are starting to see that about the polling, let's talk about the democratic strategy.

President obama play golf saturday and harry reid said no copper mice and nancy pelosi was not willing to come to the table.

Wasn't that a risky strategy?

Absolutely, but when you have 51 votes in the senate, you can do whatever you want.

On the debt ceiling they had 60 votes which would have for the compromise.

The republicans would have had the leverage but what harry reid has to do is walk the most vulnerable democrats off the plank.

That's not a winning clinical issue in louisiana or arkansas.

If this is going on and those senators are feeling the pressure, it could be that you start seeing the democratic divide and that would put pressure on getting some sort of deal.

This is complicated by the debt ceiling which has to be lifted by october 17. it seems the two issues may collide together.

How that pressure hits the democratic senators or the conservatives in the house is going to determine how this gets decided.

I wonder if you can link this to sequestration.

Aside from a couple of days where it immigration lines were long, people said they did not feel the effect.

How would a government shutdown be linked to that?

Sequestration was a five percent cut.

It only affected them on the margins.

This is a complete shutdown, a stoppage of a lot of government services.

Where it could have had the biggest impact is if the president decided to shut down the air traffic control system.

He has decided not to do that but people will feel the effect immediately.

Dan, you wrote about this.

Dan clifton, who wins if there is less sequestration?

Once we go into this government shut down, the question is whether the 30 or 40 republicans will vote for reopening the government.

My guess is they're not and that may force john boehner to cut a deal with steny hoyer and the price may be less sequestration were some relaxing to get the government reopened.

Though stakes are pretty high moving into the debt ceiling debate.

Today, the president's legislation the health exchanges go live.

He spent yesterday in a rare visit from the white house with the prime minister netanyahu of israel.

Does he need to play a bigger leadership role here?

Does he need to get out front and tell his party to lead in a different way and avoid the debt ceiling?

He can tolerate a government shutdown but it would be hard if the president of united states had to tolerate a u.s. default?

That's correct, they need to set the tone on the continuing resolution that they will not be held hostage on the debt ceiling.

Will the republicans come back with the same ideas on the debt ceiling?

The president needs to start engaging him what the solution will be on the debt ceiling and the reopening of the cr and that will present complexities for them.

All other options do not stand a chance in the house of representatives.

That is where the real compromise is.

The government shutdown may actually have some sunshine at the end where it may force them to compromise them a something they could not do without it.

That is an optimistic outlook.

The longer this goes on, the less likely the debt ceiling will be an issue because they will put it together and will have gotten their pound of flesh.

It is not clear who the president would go shoot with.

John boehner does not speak for the republican caucus.

They don't let him cut deals.

To me that's the heart of the matter -- why can't the president negotiate with the leadership of the legislative branch?

Because the leadership of the legislative branch cannot control the votes in the house.

Two or three specific times in the last week, john boehner has put a plan in front of his caucus and they rejected that plan which forced them to call an audible at the line.

That's why they have been living for them day to day.

It is the rank and file and most of those members are from republican districts meaning they have 10% rate or voter registration and they are very much against the president and it is harder for john boehner to control them.

Thank you so much.

He is all worked up today as we all are over washington.

Coming up, a man who has seen 20 of budget rattles in congress and the white house.

We will talk with ronald reagan paused budget director, david

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.

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