A Look at the Geopolitics of the Ukraine Crisis

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March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Eurasia Group Director of Emerging Markets Strategy Alex Kliment discusses Russian troops moving into Ukraine on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Ian bremmer just back from kiev.

Good morning.

When you look at what we see, the international job owning.

What would you suggest we should look for from secretary kerry's trip to kiev?

I think part of the problem for the united states and secretary kerry is the united states does not have a huge amount of influence or leverage over russia on this issue.

From russia's perspective, ukraine is in excess agile issue in terms of geopolitics and domestic allah text.

It simply matters more to russia.

Russia has more influence directly on the ground.

What kerry can do is talk about sanctions but they will not have much of an effect because the relationship is not very deep.

Political sanctions is not something that will move him tremendously.

There seems to be a lot of job owning this morning.

Is it for donated?

Is it a coordinated effort or ad hoc effort between sweden, germany, u.s., imf and others?

I think there is certainly room or better coordination.

Not everyone's interests are precisely aligned.

Europeans have a much deeper energy relationship with russia, which bounds the ability to center into an economic scenario with russia.

You mentioned this earlier.

Explained the hydrocarbon linkage between russia, ukraine, and germany.

Russia is incredibly dependent on oil and gas exports.

A large fraction go through pipelines to the european union, which gets about 30% of its gas consumption directly from russian suppliers.

That is by far the most important economic relationship in that part of the world.

The map of the hydrocarbons looks like your hockey road trip over the weekend.

Like everything goes through the ukraine.

That is the issue.

I think we have to be very careful in how we describe cold war versus hot war.

Clearly an issue in which the u.s. and russia will have to come to an understanding or there could be a very serious conflict right on the border of europe.

The idea of a russian invasion could turn very ugly very quickly.

A solution has to be found quickly.

I continue to wonder.

Two thirds of the 56 billion that flowed out of the country could be traced to illegal activity.

Seems like they would have there for a reason to him pound at some of the assets and punish russia in a different way, if they cared to.

Any suggestion that is on the table?

There has been vague talk about sanctions against certain elites.

No clarity on that.

It certainly is true that one way to get vladimir putin's attention more clearly is to go after that assets of key russian elites that support him.

I do not have any information on

This text has been automatically generated. It may not be 100% accurate.


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