Snapshot for Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia State Leading Index Florida (IDSLSLFL)

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The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the states coincident index (ALLX OUST). In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. A time-series model (vector autoregression) is used to construct the leading index. Current and prior values of the forecast variables are used to determine the future values of the index.