Does it still make sense to think of Iraq as a country? Did it ever? Scenes of Sunni Arab militants overrunning cities as Shiite Arabs and Sunni Kurds mobilize to fight them are a reminder that Iraqis are riven by history, religion and ethnicity. Nationhood was imposed by force and national institutions form a weak glue. The fall of a swath of north-central Iraq to rebels has raised a question that came up in an earlier civil war, fought in 2006-2007 during the U.S. occupation: Might Iraqis be better off, and the world safer, with the country split into three autonomous regions or even separate states?
Jihadists of the Islamic State, allied with other Sunni militias, claimed control of Fallujah in January, then Mosul and additional cities in June before advancing toward the capital, Baghdad. In August they seized the country’s largest dam and besieged a minority sect trapped on a mountain, where they were met by U.S. air strikes. Extreme in its interpretation of Islamic law, Islamic State — a faction strengthened by its participation in Syria’s civil war — is far outside Iraq’s Sunni mainstream. Yet some residents welcomed the group as an alternative to the central government, widely regarded among Sunnis as oppressive. Iraq’s other factions mobilized in response. Shiite militias from the south, ubiquitous and violent during the U.S. occupation, were reactivated. The Kurdish armed force, the Peshmerga, seized control of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city over which the Kurds have long fought the central government. Then Kurdish leaders announced plans to hold an independence referendum. Of Iraq’s 35 million people, 55 percent are Shiite Arabs, 19 percent are Sunni Arabs and 21 percent are Kurds.
Iraq is composed of three Ottoman provinces captured by the British in World War I. In 1920, the League of Nations created the British-administered Mandate for Iraq, and Iraq became an independent country for the first time in 1932. A coup ended the British-installed monarchy in 1958 and another brought the Arab nationalist Baath Party to power in 1963. Saddam Hussein rose from Baath ranks to the presidency in 1979, his rule marked by brutality and Sunni chauvinism. In the northeast, Kurds aspired to an independent Kurdistan joining them with their brethren in Syria, Turkey and Iran. The south was dominated by Shiites, a branch of Islam dating to the 7th century when the Prophet Mohammed’s followers divided over who were his rightful successors. Sunnis formed the majority in central Iraq. British authorities planted the seeds of the modern conflict between the sects when, following the practice of the Sunni Ottomans, they named Sunnis to senior posts. This led after independence to Sunni-dominated governments that viciously put down Kurdish and Shiite rebellions. The U.S. reversed matters, destroying national institutions like the Baath Party and the army and handing authority to a Shiite-led transitional government with links to Shiite Iran. Its successor, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, harassed Sunni politicians, mowed down Sunni protesters and denied Sunnis government and military positions. On August 14, Maliki agreed to step down to allow Haidar al-Abadi to replace him as premier.
As a senator in 2006, Vice President Joe Biden proposed splitting Iraq into three regions, each responsible for domestic laws and internal security (the central government would manage border defense, foreign affairs and oil revenue). Some foreign affairs specialists agreed, with a few suggesting moving toward three separate states. Either approach would be messy, which explains why the U.S. wants a central government that can unite the factions. What would be done in a split nation about mixed-population cities, notably Baghdad? Biden proposed making the capital a federal city and protecting the other cities with an international police force. What countries would volunteer for that kind of duty today? Economic viability for the Sunni area is another challenge. Iraq’s government derives 97 percent of its revenue from oil, and most of the production is in Shiite areas. The Kurds are developing their reserves, but the Sunnis have few. Dividing Iraq could also fuel sectarian conflicts in other Middle Eastern countries.
The Reference Shelf
- Political scientist Charles R.H. Tripp traces Iraq’s story from Ottoman times through the 2006 civil war in his classic book, “A History of Iraq.”
- Middle East scholar Vali R. Nasr traces sectarian conflict in the Islamic world in his book, “The Shia Revival.”
- The Congressional Research Service released an overview of politics, governance and human rights in Iraq.
- Human Rights Watch reported on the Saddam Hussein regime’s brutal campaigns against Iraqi Kurds and Shiites.