Scaramucci Says Trump’s Odds Are Long But He Can Still Win

Lasry and Scaramucci on Trump’s Chances, Centrism
  • Republican nominee hit a rough patch after first debate
  • Lewd video has driven many Republican lawmakers to drop him

Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, a fundraiser and economic adviser for Donald Trump, said Tuesday the Republican presidential nominee has about a 20-percent chance of winning November’s election, based on polls.

“There’s a one-in-five shot or one-in-10” chance, he said at an event at New York City’s CORE Club moderated by Bloomberg Politics co-managing editors Mark Halperin and John Heilemann, adding that “anything can happen.”

Afterward, Scaramucci said on Twitter, “Let me clarify. The prediction markets have him at 20 percent and he has always exceeded those expectations.”

“It is far from over. He is an incredible fighter and no one should bet against,” he wrote.

The election forecaster FiveThirtyEight said Tuesday that Trump has a 16.6-percent chance in its polls-only model and a 19.8-percent chance in its “polls-plus” model. PredictWise, a betting-market aggregator, on Tuesday put Trump’s chances at 12 percent.

Trump’s campaign hit a rough patch after a lagging performance in his first debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton on Sept. 26, worsened Friday by the release of a lewd 2005 video that prompted many Republican lawmakers to abandon him.

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