U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Trump’s Convention Guest-List Intrigue Grows

A number of high-profile Republicans won’t be participating, so the campaign is looking beyond “typical politicians” to fill the stage.

Conventions Sneak Peek: Will We See Any Disruptions?

Donald Trump is a bona fide reality television star. So fluent is he with the world of professional wrestling that Vince McMahon named him a WWE Hall of Famer. So it figured the GOP convention that presumably culminates in his anointment as the party’s presidential nominee would be marked by a unique choreography and cast of characters.

  • How different, though, remains shrouded in mystery less than three weeks before the opening gavel (assuming, of course, gavels are still part of the props in Trump-world)
  • Ivanka Trump, daughter of the nominee-to-be, tells Va. radio host “it’s not gonna be a ho-hum lineup of typical politicians”: BuzzFeed
    • Necessity will contribute to that, given that a number of high-profile Republicans—including 2012 standard-bearer Mitt Romney and ex-President George W.Bush—don’t want to be part of the July 18-21 gathering in Cleveland
  • In its alternative universe, Trump’s campaign is lining up luminaries from the sports world to appear, incl. former Indiana Univ. basketball coach Bobby Knight and Nascar’s Brian France, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Kevin Cirilli report
    • Some of those mentioned on this list, though, may not be making the trip
    • Ex-boxing champ Mike Tyson, who also served a prison sentence for rape, won’t be attending because he’ll be busy with entertainment commitments, says his personal publicist.
    • Mike Ditka, the former Superbowl-winning coach of football’s Chicago Bears, told the Chicago Tribune he learned of the convention planners’ interest from news reports
  • Meanwhile, some of those GOP stalwarts skipping the proceedings are finding creative ways to be otherwise occupied
    • Utah Rep. Mia Love, who had a prime speaking slot in 2012 and this year faces a toss-up race, says she’s going on a congressional trip to the Middle East: KSL.com
    • Sen. Jeff Flake of Ariz., to AP: “No, I’ve got to mow my lawn”

 

ON THE TRAIL

  • Hillary Clinton campaign announces President Obama will join her on the trail for the first time in this cycle in Charlotte, N.C., on July 5
    • The pair were to appear together earlier this month in Green Bay, Wis., but that event was scuttled after the Orlando mass shooting
  • Trump has hired Vincent Harris, former chief digital strategist for Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign, Politico reports
  • Trump to deliver a major trade speech tomorrow in N.H., WMUR reports

 

E-MAILS

  • Clinton’s private e-mail usage while she served as Obama’s secretary of state frustrated top aide Huma Abedin, according to two people who witnessed an Abedin deposition Tuesday, Bloomberg’s Ben Brody reports
    • Abedin was being deposed about the context of a Nov. 2010 e-mail she sent Clinton that they “should talk about putting you on state e-mail or releasing your e-mail address to the department so you are not going to spam”
    • Note prompted by missed scheduled phone call; Clinton responded that she could get a “separate address or device” but didn’t want to to avoid “any risk of the personal being accessible,” according to e-mail chain
  • Clinton is expected to be interviewed by FBI in coming weeks as part of query into handling of classified data on her private e-mail server, WSJ reports

 

POLLS

  • Clinton has a 79% chance of winning Nov.’s election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicts
  • RealClearPolitics has her running 6.2 points over Trump in its average of general election polling data
    • RCP’s David Byler notes that state polls aren’t consistent with Clinton’s lead in the national surveys
    • Some states’ poll results mirror that advantage, while others don’t; Byler says this could be because state polls are not yet reliable or because of shifts in the electoral map
  • Clinton’s lead nationally over Trump lessens in Quinnipiac University poll
    • Clinton has 42% vs Trump’s 40% in head-to-head survey; Quinnipiac poll released June 1 showed her ahead 45%-41%
  • Clinton retains lead over Trump in N.J., 52% to 31%, according to Farleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll
    • Inclusion of Libertarian Party contender Gary Johnson changes figures to Clinton 44%, Trump 32%, with Johnson getting 9% support
  • Ballotpedia has Clinton leading Trump across the board in battleground states, regardless of whether Johnson is included in mix, CNN reports
  • Bloomberg’s Andre Tartar analyzes which outlets were best at predicting presidential primary winners this cycle

 

ADVERTISING

 

FUNDRAISING

  • Three super-PACs supporting Trump are struggling with fundraising, NBC News reports
    • Great America PAC, Rebuilding America Now PAC and Committee for American Sovereignty are all short of goals

 

ETC

  • Three weeks after Democratic presidential primary, half a million Calif. votes remain uncounted, New York Times reports
  • Republicans remain split on whether delegates should vote their conscience at the party’s convention, a move that could potentially block Trump from the nomination, Weekly Standard reports
    • Attempt to insert a “conscience clause,” which could free delegates from voting for Trump on the first ballot, is gaining some support from elected officials
    • “I think it’s up to every delegate to make up their own minds,” GOP Sen. John McCain tells the magazine
    • Without commenting on what they should do, Sen. John Cornyn said yesterday that the delegates have authority to write their own rules
    • “If they want to do something, I’m sure they’ll find a way to get it done”: Cornyn
    • Sen. Mike Lee, a GOP delegate and member of the convention’s rules committee, told MSNBC Friday that he hasn’t made decision about unbinding delegates, according to the magazine

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CONGRESSIONAL RACES

  • CO-SEN: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet’s campaign in memo said Republican Darryl Glenn is “too extreme for Colorado,” pointing to his praise of Trump and endorsements by Sen. Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin
    • Glenn, county commissioner who won five-way GOP primary yday, said in fundraising e-mail he’s Democrats’ “worst nightmare” because he is “a black conservative Republican” opposing “one of the most vulnerable Democrats”
    • Secure America Now, 501c4 nonprofit group that emphasizes border security, reported spending $50k to oppose Bennet, according to FEC filing
  • FL-SEN.: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy has raised $118k online for his Senate campaign since GOP Sen. Marco Rubio announced his bid for re-election, Politico reports
  • OH-SEN: TV ad from Freedom Partners Action Fund super-PAC features woman who sells children’s books saying to camera that Democrat Ted Strickland “left Ohio in a bad spot” after serving as governor from 2007-2011
    • Spot first aired today on broadcast television in Cleveland market, according to Kantar Media’s CMAG
  • GOP Sen. Rob Portman said in statement he can’t support Puerto Rico debt bill if it doesn’t include relief for Ohio mineworkers
  • MI-10: Campaign ad for GOP businessman Paul Mitchell says “liberals like Barack Obama have hijacked our American dream” and that district needs “conservative outsider” to address economy, border security, military, anti-terrorism, veterans’ issues
    • Mitchell among five Republicans in Aug. 2 primary seeking to succeed GOP Rep. Candice Miller in district north of Detroit
  • NJ-05: Democrat Josh Gottheimer detailed economic plan today that calls for simplifying tax code, lower corporate rates, repatriation tax holiday, NJ.com reported
    • Gottheimer challenging GOP Rep. Scott Garrett in mildly Republican-leaning district that includes most of Bergen County near NYC
  • NY-01: Former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst has 29-vote lead over David Calone out of 10,863 cast in Democratic primary with all precincts reporting, according to Suffolk County elections board; winner to face GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin on eastern Long Island district that’s politically competitive
    • If Throne-Holst’s lead holds, Democrats will have female nominees in all four GOP-held N.Y. districts the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups
    • Other districts are NY-19, where law professor Zephyr Teachout faces ex-Assembly Minority Leader John Faso; NY-22, where Kim Myers, who worked in Dick’s Sporting Goods business founded by her father, will oppose Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney; and NY-24, where Colleen Deacon, ex-aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is running against GOP Rep. John Katko
    • NOTE: N.Y.’s 27-member U.S. House delegation includes seven women who are Democrats and Republican Elise Stefanik
  • NY-13: Associated Press hasn’t yet called Democratic primary race for open seat Rep. Charles Rangel is giving up after 46 years
    • Adriano Espaillat leads Keith Wright in nine-candidate race by 1,236 votes -- 2.8 percentage points -- with 99% of precincts reporting
    • Espaillat said in statement today he’s “confident that when all the votes are counted I will be the Democratic nominee”
    • Wright said last night “no candidate can declare victory” until “every vote is counted”
  • NY-19: GOP group America Rising PAC in statement said Teachout is “way too extreme and unqualified” to represent central Hudson Valley district
    • Teachout’s campaign sent e-mail referring to Faso as “ultimate insider,” Time Warner Cable News political journalist Liz Benjamin wrote on Twitter
  • TN-06: GOP Rep. Diane Black in TV ad touted her work on border security, specifically measure to “stop refugees from Syria and Iraq”
    • Black is shown telling gathering that “both Democrats and Republicans have failed to address” issue
    • Black opposed in Aug. 4 primary by former state Rep. Joe Carr, who lost GOP’s 2014 Senate primary to incumbent Lamar Alexander
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