U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Brexit Roils Clinton-Trump Matchup

Trump: I See Parallel With Brexit Vote, U.S. Race

The presidential race took an abrupt turn into uncertain terrain as Britain’s vote to leave the EU raised questions about how much a similar movement of populist discontent will reshape U.S. politics.

Interpretations of “what it all means” began right away as Donald Trump got a jump on the news cycle by speaking directly from Scotland

The presumptive GOP presidential nominee said he sees a “big parallel” in Brexit vote and his campaign; Hillary Clinton said Britain’s rejection of the EU shows need for “calm, steady” leadership in the U.S.

Height Securities analysts see bad news for the Democrat

  • “We don’t want to sugarcoat this turn of events,” analysts write in note. “A vote for ‘leave’ is a vote against Clinton”
  • “However, we have seen in this election that strong anti-immigrant sentiment draws support from primarily white voters but arguably to a greater extent galvanizes opposition from minorities.”

Trump may see a “slight boost” in national polls in coming days: Height

  • The U.K. referendum “in a way” marked a win for Trump, Austan Goolsbee, ex-economic adviser to President Obama, told MSNBC; he cautioned against assuming this means Trump will beat Clinton in November

KBW analyst Brian Gardner said it would be a “mistake” to read too much into the U.K. results, vis-a-vis the U.S.

 

BREXIT REACTIONS

Aftershocks from Britain’s political earthquake buffeted markets and policy makers, creating political upheaval in London, dismay in European capitals and panic on trading floors worldwide

  • U.S. stocks intraday fell most since Jan.; Treasury yields had biggest drop in more than 4 years; gold rallied

President Obama said U.S. respects decision, “special relationship” with U.K. will survive Brexit; also says EU will remain an “indispensable partner”

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan said markets will eventually “stabilize”; global uncertainty means U.S. must lead

Democratic Rep. Jim Himes, a former Goldman Sachs executive whose Conn. district is home to big hedge funds, called decision a “very bad thing for the U.K.”

  • U.S.-U.K. ties will remain strong but are those ties with a robust world leader or “provincial England?”: Himes on MSNBC

Rep. Steny Hoyer of Md., House’s No. 2 Democrat, said Brexit fueled by same isolationist populism seen in the U.S.

Rep. Eliot Engel of N.Y., top Democrat on House Foreign Affairs Cmte, echoed this view, saying the “xenophobic and divisive rhetoric heard in lead-up to yesterday’s vote” are “some of the same notes being intoned” by Trump

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC he views the U.K. vote as “just the tip of the iceberg” because conditions that fueled Britain’s vote are “widespread”

ON THE TRAIL

After Trump arrived in Scotland—which voted solidly to remain in EU—he reacted to Brexit by saying “I love to see people take their country back,” and “that’s really what’s happening in the United States”

  • Asked about Brexit impact on U.S., economy, he says: “I think it will end up being a very good thing, but it will take time”
  • Speaking from the golf course he owns in Scotland, he also said the economic fallout could benefit the facility
  • “If the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry,” he said

Clinton aide Jake Sullivan, on conference call with reporters, responded that Trump’s emerging playbook in reacting to crisis includes “pathological self- congratulation,” consulting “only with himself” and making “basic factual errors”

ADVERTISING

Political spending on TV ads seen reaching ~$3.3b this year, a 14% rise over 2012, RBC analyst Leo Kulp writes in note, citing Steve Lanzano, president of the Television Bureau of Advertising

  • “There is uncertainty around how Trump will spend in the election given recent questions about fundraising and turmoil in campaign leadership. However, this should be offset by spending by outside groups, which have raised significant funds to date”

OpenSecrets analysis of FEC data shows that outside groups had raised $702m through April 28, almost 3.5 times the $202m raised through April 28, 2012: Kulp

  • “To the extent that the Republican establishment doesn’t support Trump, it is expected that funds will be deployed to support Republican candidates in tight Congressional races as it becomes more imperative for them to maintain control of Congress”

ETC.

Sen. Bernie Sanders says he will vote for Clinton in Nov., though he doesn’t officially endorse her; tells MSNBC he will do “everything I can to defeat” Trump

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell says in podcast that Trump “needs to pivot and start acting presidential” if he wants to be elected

  • Also says: “We just saw his latest financial report and, you know, there’s not much money in there”

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s name being floated as possible alternative to replace Trump at GOP convention next month in Cleveland, Bloomberg’s John McCormick and Steven Yaccino report

Clinton content to allow Trump to dominate news cycles, as her advisers wager that he will show there is such a thing as bad publicity, Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur reports

CONGRESSIONAL RACES

FILING DEADLINE: Today’s the deadline for Senate and House candidates in Fla.; click here for candidate list

CA-SEN: Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence endorsed state Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris over Rep. Loretta Sanchez, the gun-control group said in a statement

  • Brady Campaign president Dan Gross said Harris is “only Senate candidate they can trust to stand up to the corporate gun lobby,” attacked Sanchez’s vote in 2005 on gun-manufacturer liability measure
  • Harris and Sanchez are Democrats facing off in Nov. to succeed retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer

FL-SEN: Florida First Project super-PAC will independently aid re-election campaign of GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, it said in statement

  • New group’s officials include veterans of Rubio’s presidential campaign and an allied super-PAC
  • Florida First Project released digital ad attacking Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who seeks party’s Senate nomination in Aug. 30 primary
  • Businessman Todd Wilcox withdrew from GOP primary and endorsed Rubio, leaving homebuilder Carlos Beruff as Rubio’s only serious challenger in Aug. 30 race
  • Rubio is “political hack,” Beruff told Washington Post’s Mike DeBonis

NV-SEN: One Nation, conservative issue-advocacy group, said in TV ad that GOP Rep. Joe Heck “has fought for better care for military families” and viewers should urge him to back FY17 defense authorization measure

  • Heck faces Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for seat of retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid

OH-SEN: U.S. Chamber of Commerce TV ad shows Democratic ex- Gov. Ted Strickland with Clinton and footage of her saying in March that “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners” out of business

  • TV ad also promoted GOP Sen. Rob Portman and his endorsement from United Mine Workers of America; spot first aired today in Youngstown, part of Ohio’s industrial Mahoning Valley

PA-SEN: Democratic group Majority Forward in TV ad said GOP Sen. Pat Toomey and Wall Street have “a love affair;” attacks Toomey for having “supported privatizing Social Security”

  • Ad refers to voluntary program promoted by President George W. Bush’s administration that would have allowed individuals to manage some Social Security tax money in personal accounts
  • “Katie McGinty’s friends in Washington are truly, madly, deeply in love with lying about” Toomey, senator’s campaign spokesman Ted Kwong said in statement

NY-22: Defending Main Street super-PAC released TV ad attacking GOP Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney as “Albany insider” who missed votes or aligned too frequently with Democrat Sheldon Silver when he was Assembly speaker

  • Defending Main Street supports more centrist GOPers; donors include labor unions and Sean Parker, billionaire founding president of Facebook
  • Tenney said in debate this week it’s “completely unfair to the voters” when outside groups link her to Silver, who was found guilty late last year of corruption charges
  • Tenney said she’s fought corruption and called for resignations of Silver and Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo
  • Tenney, businessman Steve Wells, history teacher George Phillips running in June 28 primary for seat of retiring GOP Rep. Richard Hanna, who endorsed Wells yday

NY-24: Sanders to campaign tonight in Syracuse with Eric Kingson, social-work professor running in June 28 primary to oppose GOP Rep. John Katko

  • Kingson was a founder of group that advocates for expanding Social Security, key tenet of Sanders’s presidential campaign platform
  • Kingson’s opponents include Colleen Deacon, former aide to N.Y. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand who is supported by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi

—With assistance from Rachel Layne, Danielle Bernstein and Erik Wasson

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE