U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Trump’s Improbable Ride, 12 Months Later

Trump, Presidential Candidate: 12 Months in 49 Words

A year ago today, Donald Trump rode down an escalator in New York’s Trump Tower for a press conference announcing what many analysts had predicted would never actually happen: a run for the presidency

Bloomberg’s Mark Halperin, June 16, 2015: “From the kitschy pre-show ‘Cats’ serenade, to the endless escalator entrance, to the rambling, conversational, near-stream-of-consciousness speech, the event captured the quirks, drama, and appeal of ‘The Donald’ in all his flash and glory”

The Atlantic, in an overview today, notes that the escalator ride—a touchstone moment for Trump—is among the things many people know about occasion, along with his charge that “Mexicans” coming into the U.S. are “bringing drugs; they’re bringing crime; they’re rapists.”

  • But there’s also this: “That the press got the Trump phenomenon wrong—hilariously, painfully wrong”

Trump, now the last Republican standing among 17 who sought the party’s nomination, was on the trail yesterday in Atlanta, continuing the type of unorthodox rhetoric that laid waste to the rest of the GOP field

  • With a fair number of Republican office-holders either disassociating themselves from him or offering tepid backing, Trump said top he may have to lead the GOP “alone,” ratcheting up tensions with party leaders, Washington Post reports
  • “Our leaders have to get a lot tougher. And be quiet. Just please be quiet. Don’t talk,” Trump said

A Politico story today headlined: “Trump’s relationship with RNC sours”

  • Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus “has privately grumbled that his advice doesn’t seem welcome with Trump,” according to the story

Priebus in a Twitter message labels the report “pure fiction”

  • Priebus points out that he sent message as he was traveling with Trump to Texas, where “great events” are lined up

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, one of those vanquished by Trump, told MSNBC he’s not backing Trump “right now”

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton, R-Mich., says he’s not planning to endorse Trump: Detroit News

  • Upton says Trump’s campaign has gone “off the track”

 

POLLS

GOP, with Trump as its new standard-bearer, is seen favorably by just 32% of U.S. adults, the lowest rating it has recorded since Bloomberg national poll began in 2009, John McCormick reports

  • Hillary Clinton leads Trump 43%-37% in CBS general election poll; she also leads 50%-43% on handling of terrorism and national security
  • On issue that plagues Clinton’s candidacy, two-thirds of voters think the former secretary of state did something wrong when she set up personal e-mail address and server; 41% believe what she did was illegal, 25% think it was improper though not illegal; 26% say she did nothing wrong

 

ENDORSEMENTS

Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state under George W. Bush, tells Politico he will vote for Clinton over Trump

  • Armitage, retired Navy officer who also served as an asst secretary of defense under Ronald Reagan, says Trump “doesn’t appear to be to be a Republican, he doesn’t appear to want to learn about issues”
  • Clinton aides believe Armitage is highest ranking former GOP natl security official to openly back Clinton over Trump

Oprah Winfrey for Clinton; says “it’s about time” for a female U.S. president

Clinton also wins endorsement of the U.S.’s biggest labor federation, AFL-CIO

  • Presumptive Democratic nominee “is a proven leader who shares our values,” AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said

NOTE: Trumka previously said his top interest in evaluating Clinton candidacy would be who she picks as economic advisers; in 2014 he warned against a Clinton “coronation”

 

ETC.

NYT’s Upshot posts infographic on 2012 voter turnout, sortable by race, sex, age, education level and state

  • Example of the granular detail: 72% of black women ages 30-44 in Mich. with some college education voted in 2012, and 97% of them backed Democrats

Trump is said to be considering starting his own media business, Vanity Fair reports, citing unidentified people familiar with matter; Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks says there are “absolutely” no such plans

 

CONGRESSIONAL RACES

SENATE FUNDRAISING: “Schumer Committee for the Majority” will raise campaign funds jointly for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, N.Y. Sen. Chuck Schumer’s re-election campaign, and his leadership PAC, according to FEC filing

  • Schumer, a shoo-in to win fourth term in Nov., would become Senate Majority Leader if Democrats also overturn GOP’s 54-46 majority; Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring

CO-SEN: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet has $5.7m campaign cash-on-hand after raising more than $1.6m in 10-week period that ended June 8, according to campaign release

  • Bennet faces winner of five-way GOP primary June 28

IL-SEN: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk calls on his Democratic challenger, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, to testify at whistle-blower trial involving her time as head of Illinois Dept of Veterans Affairs

  • Trial focuses on charges she “abused her power by intimidating and threatening whistle-blowers—even firing one of them—all because they were exposing abuse and mistreatment of veterans under her care,” Kirk says in statement
  • Duckworth campaign spokesman Matt McGrath responds that Kirk “has no idea what he’s talking about. This is a civil workplace case that has stretched out over eight years and been dismissed in full or in part three different times—and Tammy has complied at every step of the process”
  • Case in which 2 former employees claim to be victims of workplace retaliation set to be heard in mid-Aug.

NEV-SEN: Seat Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is giving up may represent GOP’s best chance, and perhaps its only one, to gain a Democratic-held seat as

  • Silver State PAC Inc. filed FEC papers as super-PAC that will aid Republican Rep. Joe Heck in his quest for seat, according to filing and a person involved with super-PAC who requested anonymity because it’s hiring staff and hasn’t made public announcement
  • Heck won GOP primary June 14, opposed by Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

WI-SEN: Democratic ex-Sen. Russ Feingold says in TV ad that “how hard it is to get ahead” is most common feedback he’s received from voters during travels to all of state’s 72 counties

  • Feingold seeking to unseat GOP Sen. Ron Johnson in rematch of 2010 race

KS-01: Kansas Ag Communities Coalition, super-PAC aligned with Kansas Livestock Assn, paid for radio ads promoting physician Roger Marshall over Rep. Tim Huelskamp in GOP primary, according to FEC filing

  • 69-county rural district “has been without a voice on the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, but a candidate has arrived that can reclaim this seat,” according to transcript of ad provided by KACC
  • Huelskamp has clashed with GOP leaders and was removed from Ag Cmte after 2012 election; in late 2015 he was selected to Republican Steering Cmte, which determines cmte chairmen and members
  • Club for Growth PAC, which pushes Republican leaders for bigger spending and regulation curbs, endorsed Huelskamp today along with GOP Reps. Scott Garrett in NJ-05, Rod Blum in IA-01

OK-01: GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine in TV ad touted accomplishments as chairman of House Science, Space and Technology Committee’s Environment Subcommittee

  • Bridenstine, member of strongly conservative House Freedom Caucus, faces energy executive Tom Atkinson and frequent candidate Evelyn Rogers in June 28 primary

—With assistance from Billy House.

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