Who Will Win New York? Six Views Point to Trump, Clinton Victories

Statistical models, betting markets, and the Internet weigh in on the battle for the Empire State.

Empire State of Mind: Previewing the New York Primary

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump appear to be heading for home-turf wins in Tuesday’s New York presidential primaries, while Brooklyn native Bernie Sanders hopes to build momentum against Clinton and GOP underdogs Ted Cruz and John Kasich look to deprive Trump of delegates. Here are six credible predictions on how the race might shake out.

PredictWise: Trump and Clinton

The research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, aggregates betting-market data and has successfully predicted the winner in 55 of 65 nominating contests it's covered so far this year. As of Sunday, PredictWise gave Trump a 98-percent chance of winning the state, as well as an 85-percent chance (up from 76 percent last week) of winning more than half of the Republican votes.

Winning 50 percent of the statewide vote would give Trump all of New York’s 14 at-large delegates, while winning 50 percent or more of the vote in any of New York’s 27 congressional districts would net him an additional three delegates each. While little polling exists at the congressional level, Rothschild said that Trump’s 50-percent odds statewide mean “he is likely to get the vast majority of the delegates.” This would help curb Cruz’s success the last few weeks at closing the delegate gap between himself and Trump through grassroots organization. 

On the Democratic side, PredictWise gives Clinton a 91-percent chance of winning, up from as low as 72 percent earlier in the month.

RealClearPolitics: Trump and Clinton

As of Monday, the poll averaging and aggregating site has Trump receiving support from just over 52 percent of likely New York Republican voters—a number that’s held more or less steady for about three weeks. He has garnered at least 50 percent support in all but one of the 13 polls conducted since the start of April and tracked by RealClearPolitics.

Kasich comes in second with support from almost 23 percent, a share that would allow him to receive delegates if Trump were to slip below the halfway mark. Cruz, who has criticized “New York values,” has less than 18 percent, meaning he would get no delegates even if Trump doesn’t take the majority.

On the Democratic side, Clinton has support from more than 53 percent of likely Democratic voters. Sanders has closed much of the 30-point deficit he faced in March but still trails Clinton by about 13 points.

Bing: Trump and Clinton

With a roughly 79-percent accuracy rating so far this cycle, Bing predicts Trump will win with exactly 50 percent of the vote. Kasich is projected to come in second with nearly 28 percent, followed by Cruz with just over 22 percent. Those shares would mean that all three candidates split at-large delegates proportionally if Trump slips below the majority threshold.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is projected to take the state with nearly 55 percent of the vote, according to the “machine-learned predictive model” that the Microsoft search engine created. It parses data from polls, prediction markets, search engine queries, and social-media posts.

FiveThirtyEight: Trump and Clinton

On Sunday, FiveThirtyEight, which is run by former New York Times stats guru Nate Silver, gave Trump a greater-than-99-percent chance of winning New York, with his share of the vote projected to exceed 50 percent in both of its models. (The site uses weighted state poll averages in addition to a model that combines those averages with national poll numbers and the effect of endorsements.) The site projects Kasich will come in second with around 25 percent of the vote or more, with Cruz coming in third with under 20 percent.

Clinton, meanwhile, has a 98-percent chance of winning, according to both of the site’s models.

Political Insiders: Trump (Barely) and Clinton

New York’s Republican establishment has largely kept to the sidelines in the party’s presidential primary, though Trump can at least claim the backing of two of the state’s congressmen: Tom Reed and Chris Collins.

Representative Peter King hasn’t endorsed anyone since his favorite candidate, Marco Rubio, dropped out, but he has made crystal clear whom he will not be voting for. “Any New Yorker who even thinks of voting for Ted Cruz should have their head examined,” he said on a radio show earlier this month, adding, “I just can't stand that guy.”

Kasich, whom King called a “good guy” in that same interview, has the support of former New York Senator Al D’Amato. 

Endorsements from elected officials have historically been among the best available indicators of success in a party primary, although that pattern has been challenged by the 2016 Republican race.

On the Democratic side, the endorsement ledger is far more lopsided. Clinton has the loyalty of the state's entire Democratic congressional delegation, plus Governor Andrew Cuomo, according to the latest tally compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com. 

Ballotcraft: Trump and Toss-Up

This fantasy politics game, founded by two Stanford grads, has thousands of players who use fake money to buy “shares” in candidates. So far, it has correctly predicted 58 of the 70 nominating contests it has covered as of one day prior to voting.

And as of Sunday, shares of Trump were worth about $0.80, meaning he had about an 80-percent chance of winning. (The site doesn't look at vote share.) Clinton has a slight advantage, with a 50.2-percent chance of winning, down from 60 earlier in the week. Sanders is less than a point behind her and the two have exchanged the lead a few times since the beginning of April.

(Corrects description of PredictWise’s record in second paragraph.)
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