Outcome Probabilities: BSports Match Analysis Tool to Provide Outcome Probabilities for Every Game This Season
LONDON — Bloomberg Sports (BSports), the world’s leaders in sports analytic technology, today unveiled its first ever end-of-season projections for Serie A. Forecasting the league finish of every team in the league, the projections are uniquely data-driven and take into account previous years of performance for each club, supplemented by the additional value that each club gained from the transfer window. The full BSports 2013/2014 Serie A table and methodology can be found at www.bsports.com/projectedtables
The table indicates that Juventus, with the key signings of Tevez and Ogbonna will retain the title they won last year by over seven points. AC Milan are expected to overtake Napoli in last year’s standings largely due to Napoli’s sale of Edinson Cavani to PSG. The table also suggests Internazionale will be back in Europe next season after claiming fourth spot by one point ahead of Roma who recently lost Pablo Osvaldo.
The Bloomberg Sports forecast expects Fiorentina to drop two places despite Mario Gomez replacing Stevan Jovetic in the team. At the bottom of the table all three newly promoted teams are expected to return to Serie B immediately, though only four points will separate 13th and 18th positions.
“As fans around the world debate the 2013-2014 Serie A season from a purely subjective standpoint, we are adding our mathematically-derived predictions to the debate” said Bill Squadron, President of Bloomberg Sports. “Using the same objective data analytics that drives our Match Analysis tool, we are pleased to unveil a purely data-driven projection for each team. Not only does this make for great content for fans, but it also provides data that helps them beat the bookie”.
Odds to beat the Bookie
The BSports Table Projection also includes odds for each team winning the league, finishing in the top three, finishing in the top half or finishing in the relegation zone. This is achieved by simulating each match of the season 10,000 times in order to provide an accurate projection for how each team will perform.
Key Statistics: -3.1% chance that all three promoted teams face relegation (bottom three)
-86.5% chance that at least one does
-28.1% chance AC Milan, Juventus and Napoli finish in the Top 3.
-83.4: average number of points required to win the league
-66.5: average number of points required to finish in the top three
-38.3: average number of points required to avoid relegation
Bloomberg Sports will continue to update these projections throughout the season, taking into account last minute transfer window signings as well as most recent league performances and results.
Alongside these table projections, BSports’ new Match Analysis application presents the probable outcomes of every Serie A match. Match Analysis even updates the odds of each result every minute throughout the game, providing fans with unique insights and bettors with pure, math-driven odds that they can then compare to what the bookmakers are offering. Last season, the extremely accurate Match Analysis odds would have provided excellent returns on investment to consumers using the tool. Match Analysis will be free to use for football fans and bettors at www.bsports.com/ma.
About Bloomberg Sports
Launched in 2010, Bloomberg Sports takes the technology developed by Bloomberg, the leading global provider in data and analytics, and applies it to the vast data analysis opportunities in sports. Bloomberg Sports’ professional products for teams, broadcasters and athletes include a comprehensive baseball scouting, data and video system now used by almost all Major League Baseball clubs.
The company also has introduced a consumer soccer product for European football, “Match Analysis,” a powerful predictive and analytic tool forecasting game results, and recently launched “Stats Insights,” a comprehensive blog that contains original content and analysis for the five major European football leagues as well as the NFL, NHL, MLB, and NBA.
Bloomberg Sports has been named by Mashable as one of its “Five Most Innovative Sports Brands for 2012,” by The Sports Business Journal as a Finalist for “Best In Sports Technology” in 2012 and by Fast Company Magazine as one of the “Most Innovative Companies in Sports” in 2011. For more information go to www.bsports.com
Contact for Bloomberg:
Joe Favorito, +917-566-8345, Fatherknickerbocker1@yahoo.com
#<833366.8701126.96.36.199.0.3700># -0- Aug/22/2013 16:08 GMT