The Consensus Hates Bonds. Should You?: Ritholtz Chart
If you want a sense of the consensus view of equities, the accompanying chart from BlackRock might provide some insight.
The top panel shows the position of the major firms. As the top row (all in green) shows, they are all bullish on global equities. (Note: This came out last week -- prior to Goldman Sachs downgrade on U.S. equities yesterday.) The next row all in red shows a uniform dislike of fixed income.
They are not surprisingly mostly bullish on developed markets and European equities, and mostly bearish on emerging markets and Asia.
To quote Rule No. 9 from Bob Farrell, who was one of Merrill Lynch’s original technical analysts, “When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen.”
That’s the most interesting aspect of these predictions -- the element of consensus on investments.