Atlantic Storms to Hit Europe in Warmer-Than-Usual November
November is predicted to be warmer than usual across Europe for a second month with storm winds from the Atlantic poised to boost electricity generation in Denmark, Germany and the U.K.
Temperatures will be as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) more than normal in western Europe and the U.K., and 5 degrees higher in central and east Europe through Nov. 10, Byron Drew, lead forecaster at MetraWeather in Reading, England, said in an e-mailed report. Three other forecasters also surveyed by Bloomberg News since Oct. 30 predicted above-average temperatures for this month.
German power prices for November plunged 7.5 percent last month, touching a record-low 38.60 euros ($52.10) a megawatt hour on Oct. 31 after hurricane-force storms in northern Europe drove wind generation to an all-time high. Atlantic gusts are set to bring storm-like conditions and winds of as much as 100 kilometers (62 miles) per hour in Germany through tomorrow, according to Simon Trippler, a Deutscher Wetterdienst meteorologist based in Offenbach, Germany.
“Good wind power output will continue through the first 10 days of November as a sequence of Atlantic depressions bring frequent strong spikes to the U.K., Denmark and Germany,” Stephen Davenport, a London-based meteorologist at MeteoGroup U.K. Ltd., said by e-mail Nov. 1. “These will also produce wetter-than-normal conditions across the British Isles, Nordic regions and the northern European mainland.”
October, the first month of the winter heating season, was warmer than expected from Iberia to the U.K., MDA Information Systems LLC in Gaithersburg, Maryland, said in an e-mailed report. The biggest divergence was in Britain where the temperature was as much as 2 degrees higher than predicted.
Hurricane-force winds from the Atlantic blew through the U.K., Germany and Scandinavia last week, killing at least 16 people across northern Europe. Strong winds in the U.K. left 220,000 homes without electricity, while gusts in Denmark accelerated to 120 miles per hour in that country’s worst storm since 1999.
Day-ahead electricity prices in Germany, Europe’s biggest power market, declined 49 percent to 19.90 euros a megawatt-hour as wind generation reached a peak of 24,874 megawatts on Oct. 28, European Energy Exchange AG data show. Wind output is expected to reach a high of 19,535 megawatts today, compared with 12,407 megawatts tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg wind model for Germany.
Month-ahead power prices for November averaged 46.23 euros per megawatt-hour last year, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. German next-month electricity was trading at 37.70 euros at 5:34 p.m. in Berlin today.
“A warm, windy, wet November is not the favorite weather of utilities,” Konstantin Lenz, the Berlin-based managing director of markets adviser Lenz Energy, said by phone today. “These three bearish factors in a row could drive prices below 34 euros.”
German wind generation may drop in the second half of November, Andreas Gassner, a meteorologist at MMInternational in Appenzell, Switzerland, said today by e-mail. Output won’t rise above 5,000 megawatts in the week starting Nov. 18, he said.
In Germany, the temperature will be 8.2 degrees Celsius next weekend, 1.6 degrees more than the seasonal norm, according to MetraWeather using the ECMWF model at 7:55 a.m. in Berlin. The average for November, based on records from 1961 to 1990, is about 8 degrees, according to DWD.
Germany’s average temperature in October was 10.6 degrees, 1.6 degrees warmer than 1961-1990 reference period and 1.4 degrees warmer than 1981-2010, according to DWD.
Temperatures will remain mild across most of Europe with the warmest spots in parts of Germany and southern Scandinavia in the seven days to Dec. 1, MetraWeather’s Drew said. Above-average rainfall is expected for the U.K., France, Germany and most of Scandinavia, with higher-than-usual winds for most northern parts of western Europe, he said.
The mild weather is set to continue into December, according to MDA.
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