IEA Says Too Early to Revise Iranian Crude Oil Export Estimate
The International Energy Agency said it was too early to revise its estimate for Iranian oil exports amid speculation that the Persian Gulf nation boosted shipments in December.
Iran’s crude shipments were 1.2 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said in a Jan. 18 report, an estimate it won’t be revising until next month, Diane Munro, a supply analyst at the IEA, said in a phone interview today. That’s down from 1.45 million in November. Reuters reported earlier today that Iranian exports rose to 1.4 million barrels a day last month, the highest level since European sanctions began, citing data it compiled from analysts and shipping and customs data.
“With exports close to 1.5 million barrels a day and Brent crude above $110 a barrel Iran does not really care anymore about the sanctions,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland, said in a report today. “The export revenues from Iran are now equivalent to exporting at full capacity in a market at $81 and that is far from pushing Iran in a corner.”
Oil sales from OPEC-member Iran tumbled last year as many nations halted or reduced imports because of sanctions imposed by the European Union. The embargo, which took full effect in July, punishes the Islamic republic for its alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies.
The Paris-based IEA measures imports from Iran, rather than exports leaving the country. It estimated in August that imports of Iranian crude tumbled to about 1 million barrels a day in July, from 1.74 million in June.
Even if shipments recover to levels reached in June, they’d still fall short of the country’s all time record, considering that Iran’s production rate ran as high as about 6 million barrels a day in 1974, compared with 2.66 million barrels a day in December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the 10 years ended 2010 output averaged 3.8 million.
Iran shipped 1.88 million barrels of crude a day in May, which was the lowest since April 2002, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. The country hasn’t submitted export data to the Riyadh-based organization since then.
Shipments probably averaged 1.4 million barrels a day in December, according to Jakob at Petromatrix.
A new phase of U.S. sanctions on Iran take effect on Feb. 6 which threaten to exclude importing countries from the U.S. banking system should they send hard currency to Iran in payment for oil. Instead, they must hold payment in local currency escrow accounts, for Iran to purchase goods from within that nation. Iran will become more concerned about repatriation of revenue once the restrictions take effect, Jakob said.
The IEA publishes its next monthly report on Feb. 13.
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