Morgan Stanley Says Currency Recommendations Made 5.7% This Year
Morgan Stanley (MS) said a portfolio based on its currency recommendations returned 5.72 percent this year, the best performance since 2008.
The returns were based on 45 trades held for an average of 38 days each, the New York-based bank said in a note to clients. The best recommendations were to buy the Russian ruble against the yen from Oct. 23 to Dec. 14, which returned 7.1 percent, and to purchase the dollar versus Japan’s currency from Sept. 25 to Dec. 14, which gained 6.6 percent, Morgan Stanley said.
The worst-performing trade was to bet the pound would weaken versus the ruble between Aug. 15 and Aug. 30, which lost 2.3 percent. A prediction the Australian dollar would depreciate against the yen from July 13 to July 27 lost 2.1 percent.
“We still believe several of our best-performing trades, particularly those funded in yen, have further to gain over the coming year, and we will look to re-establish strategies along this line in the new year,” strategists in the global currency research team led by Hans Redeker in London, wrote in the note published yesterday.
The yen has tumbled 12.4 percent this year, the worst performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro declined 1.1 percent and the dollar fell 3.2 percent.
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