Soybean Outlook Cut by Oil World as EU Rapeseed Crop Seen Higher
World soybean production will be smaller than expected this season as rain delays sowing in Argentina, while Europe’s rapeseed crop is expected to rise in 2013 as planting climbs in Germany, researcher Oil World said.
Farmers will harvest 269.1 million metric tons of soybeans in 2012-13, up from 239.9 million tons in the previous year, the Hamburg-based researcher wrote in an e-mailed report. The outlook was cut from 269.5 million tons a month ago.
Rapeseed futures in Paris gained 5.8 percent this year, while soybeans jumped 22 percent after the worst U.S. drought in more than 50 years curbed yields and as excessive rain in Argentina creates concerns about the crop there.
“Argentina weather disturbances and planting delays continue to be major uncertainties for the soybean market,” Oil World wrote. “Later plantings will result in lower yields. The next two to four weeks will be crucial.”
The outlook for Argentina’s harvest was cut by 1 million tons from a month ago to 53 million tons, still up from 40.1 million tons in 2012, while “it cannot be excluded” that the crop will turn out about 50 million tons, Oil World said.
Canada’s soybean crop may rise to 4.93 million tons in 2013, compared with a November forecast for 4.28 million tons, and from estimated production of 4.3 million tons this year.
The European Union’s rapeseed area is expected to climb to 6.51 million hectares (16.1 million acres) from 6.15 million hectares in 2012, the company wrote. That might increase the bloc’s harvest of the oilseed to 20.5 million tons from 19.1 million tons this year, Oil World said.
German farmers are expected to harvest 1.44 million hectares of rapeseed, from 1.31 million hectares this year, while France’s area may slip to 1.52 million hectares from 1.61 million hectares, according to the report.
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