East Asia Growth Seen at 11-Year Low on China Slowdown: Economy
Growth in developing East Asia, which excludes Japan and India, will probably ease to 7.2 percent from 8.3 percent in 2011, the Washington-based lender said in a report today. That is the slowest pace since 2001, according to World Bank data, and lower than a forecast in May of 7.6 percent.
The International Monetary Fund is set to reduce its global forecast for this year tomorrow at an annual meeting in Tokyo where officials will tackle a slowdown triggered by Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Central banks are stepping up efforts to protect the worldwide recovery, with the U.S. expanding monetary easing, the Bank of Japan boosting its asset purchases and the Bank of Korea forecast to cut interest rates this week.
“On the monetary side, interest rates are already quite low and liquidity is relatively high in many other countries,” Bert Hofman, World Bank chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “On the fiscal side, there is clear scope, deficits are relatively low and debts are not very high.”
Asian stocks and commodities fell before European finance ministers meet today, with the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index losing 0.9 percent at 1:33 p.m. in Hong Kong. Australia’s dollar slid to the lowest level in almost three months before a report this week that may show unemployment increased, while the yuan touched its strongest level since 1993 on speculation policy makers will take more steps to spur the Chinese economy.
India’s central bank held interest rates last month while unexpectedly reducing the amount of deposits lenders must set aside as reserves, and South Korea announced 5.9 trillion won ($5.3 billion) of spending and tax relief as officials acted to shield their economies.
Manufacturing from Europe to China contracted in September, and the Asian Development Bank last week lowered its inflation and expansion forecasts for the region excluding Japan for this year and next. To shield growth, Philippine President Benigno Aquino is increasing spending to a record and seeking more than $16 billion of investments in roads and airports, and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is also boosting disbursements.
The Philippine government is confident it will be able to sustain expansion, “focusing on investment in infrastructure, making sure that governance continues to improve”, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
Growth in developing East Asia was 7.5 percent in 2009 during the global financial crisis, according to World Bank data.
“China’s slowdown this year has been significant,” the World Bank said. “Economic momentum is expected to be weak during the coming months with limited policy easing, a property market correction, and faltering external demand.”
Asia’s exports have slipped as slower global growth crimps demand for the region’s goods. China’s shipments abroad rose less than estimated in August, while Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia have reported declines.
How soon the global economy can right itself will be debated at this week’s meeting of the IMF, which monitors worldwide trade and finance imbalances. Delegates will be greeted by the news that the lender anticipates even worse growth this year than the 3.5 percent it projected in July.
China may announce additional tax cuts and spending on infrastructure, public housing and social welfare to boost domestic demand and counter external weakness, economists at HSBC Holdings Plc led by Qu Hongbin said in a report last week.
“The recent disappointing data, in particular the collapse in export growth and rising pressure on the labor market, has acted as a wake-up call to Beijing policymakers, prompting the acceleration of easing policy,” they wrote.
In Europe’s day ahead, a government report may show Switzerland’s unemployment rate rose to an 18-month high of 3 percent from 2.9 percent in August, according to a survey of economists. German industrial production probably fell in August from July, when it unexpectedly rose, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
China’s service industries expanded at a faster pace in September as output increased at the quickest pace since May, with the purchasing managers’ index climbing to 54.3 from 52 in August, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said today. New home prices rose for a fourth month in September, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd.
Crude oil has fallen about 9 percent this year, helping ease inflationary pressure, the World Bank said. Price gains in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in September, while in Indonesia they eased for the first time in four months.
Global food-price increases pose less of a risk now after bountiful rice harvests in Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines, the World Bank said. Still, renewed monetary stimulus in Europe, Japan and the U.S. could trigger capital inflows into the region, reigniting inflationary pressures and increases in asset prices.
Growth in developing East Asia will accelerate to 7.6 percent next year, with China expanding 8.1 percent, as domestic demand is boosted by accommodative policies, the World Bank said.
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