Global Economy Is Poised to Skirt Second Recession, Fidelity's Bolton Says
The global economy will skirt a second recession, according to Anthony Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International.
“The world isn’t going to a double-dip,” Bolton, president of investment at Fidelity International, a London- based affiliate of Boston’s Fidelity Investments that has more than $200 billion under management, said at a conference in Shanghai today.
Bolton’s views reflect comments made Sept. 13 by Warren Buffett, who ruled out a double dip in the U.S. and said businesses owned by his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are growing. Their comments contrast with the views of economists such as New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini and Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who have said the odds of another recession may be one in three or higher.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has erased its losses for the year after data showed American employers are adding more jobs than forecast and manufacturing expanded faster than estimated in August. Data showing an increase in Chinese industrial production and retail sales, coupled with the European Commission’s forecast of faster growth in the region’s economy this year, helped to buoy share prices, adding $2.9 trillion to global stock market values this month.
The U.S., the world’s largest economy, grew at a 1.6 percent annual pace in the second quarter, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed on Aug. 27. U.S. economic growth will slow to 2.5 percent next year from a projected 2.7 percent this year as unemployment above 9 percent tempers consumer spending, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month.
China’s growth will slow to between 7 percent and 8 percent, Bolton said today, without giving a timeframe.
Bolton achieved annualized returns of 19.5 percent during 28 years at the helm of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund. He relocated to Hong Kong in April to manage the closed-end Fidelity China Special Situations Fund, listed on the London Stock Exchange.