BOE Rates, Rousseff, U.S. Economy: Week Ahead May 9-14

  • Disney, Macy's among earnings reports; $40 million Rothko
  • U.S. retail-sales, sentiment reports will offer growth clues

The Bank of England meets as the campaign over U.K. membership in the European Union accelerates; the key rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 0.5 percent. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.

Credit Suisse Group AG is projected by analysts to report a second consecutive quarterly loss this week.

U.S. retail sales most likely rebounded in April from a first-quarter lull, and favorable economic conditions probably lifted a crucial index of buyer sentiment off its seven-month low for May, based on estimates ahead of reports due this week.

West Virginia and Nebraska hold U.S. presidential primaries, while voters in the Philippines pick a successor to President Benigno Aquino.

Monday, May 9

-Rodrigo Duterte, the tough-talking, crime-fighting mayor of Davao City in the Philippines, is the front-runner in voting to replace President Benigno Aquino. Polls open at 06:00 local time (05/08 18:00 EDT).

-Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon in Minneapolis. 12:00 local time (13:00 EDT).

-European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speak at International Financial Services Forum on the outlook for the global economy. 10:10 London (05:10 EDT). Through May 11.

-Euro-area finance ministers hold an emergency meeting to discuss additional austerity measures for Greece should budget targets be missed. 15:00 in Brussels (09:00 EDT).

-The Bank of Canada’s Toni Gravelle, chief of the financial markets department, speaks on recent developments in fixed-income market liquidity at an event hosted by the Canadian Association for Business Economics. 11:45 EDT in Toronto.

-Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi addresses leadership of his Democratic Party. 15:00 in Rome (09:00 EDT).

-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry begins a four-day visit to France and the U.K., including talks with foreign ministers in both nations.

-The Argus Rio Crude Conference will focus on low crude prices and strategies for managing risk. The keynote speaker is Mike Muller, vice president of crude trading and supply at Shell Trading. In Rio de Janeiro through May 11.

-The Robin Hood Foundation, whose mission is to end poverty in New York City, holds its annual benefit. Last year’s gala raised more than $101 million. Chance the Rapper and Citizen Cope will perform at Robin Hood concerts the same night. 19:00 in New York.

-The Flame gas conference, Europe’s biggest gas and liquefied natural gas meeting, starts in Amsterdam. Through May 11.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: U.S. Department of Agriculture commodity reports (weekly).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Minutes of Bank of Japan’s March meeting released.

-ECONOMY: U.S. labor market conditions index (April), Mexico inflation (April), Taiwan trade balance, exports, imports (April), Japan wages data (March), Japan consumer confidence (April), South Africa gross and net reserves (April) and business confidence index (April), U.K. Halifax house prices (April), German factory orders (March), Turkey industrial production (March).

-EARNINGS: Liberty Interactive Corp., Tyson Foods Inc., Xcel Energy Inc., HCP Inc., Silver Wheaton Corp., Inter Pipeline Ltd., Sotheby’s, Intrepid Potash Inc., AES Corp., Liberty Global Plc, Enel SpA, PostNL NV, Europcar Groupe SA.

Tuesday, May 10

-West Virginia holds Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. Nebraska holds its Republican primary. For the Bloomberg delegate tracker click here.

-The Global Private Equity Conference, hosted by the World Bank’s International Finance Corp., opens in Washington. Nigeria Trade and Investment Minister Okechukwu Enelamah and Rachel Kyte, CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) are featured speakers. Through May 11.

-The U.S. International Trade Commission is scheduled to announce its final decision in a trademark-infringement case in which Converse Inc. claims Skechers and New Balance shoes copy the unique midsole of the Chuck Taylors. Decision scheduled for 17:00 EDT in Washington.

-European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny of Germany speaks in Vienna. 17:00 (11:00 EDT).

-Italy’s parliament is due to decide by Thursday on whether to approve same-sex unions, possibly involving a confidence vote on the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. In Rome, timing to be determined.

-The U.K.’s economic and social research agency publishes its analysis of the consequences of Britain leaving the European Union, alongside new forecasts. 11:00 in London (06:00 EDT).

-A court hearing is held in SunEdison Inc.’s bankruptcy, the largest such filing of 2016, at 14:00 EDT in Manhattan.

-Led Zeppelin founders Jimmy Page and Robert Plant face trial to decide whether the British rockers ripped off the opening notes of their hit “Stairway to Heaven.” In Los Angeles, timing to be determined.

Rothko’s No. 17 on the block.
Rothko’s No. 17 on the block.
Source: Christie’s website

-“No. 17,” a large blue-and-green painting by the American abstract impressionist Mark Rothko, will be offered at Christie’s Postwar and Contemporary Art Auction. Rarely shown, the work has a presale estimate of $30 million to $40 million. In New York at 19:00 EDT.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Portugal releases data on banks, including European Central Bank financing (April).

-ECONOMY: NFIB U.S. small-business optimism index (April), U.S. wholesale inventories (March), U.S. job openings/labor turnover (March), China consumer prices, producer prices (April), China new lending, money supply (April), Portugal international trade (March), South Africa unemployment (1Q), German industrial production (March); French industrial production (March); Italian industrial production (March); U.K. trade (March); U.K. BRC KPMG Retail sales (April), Egypt annual inflation (April), Israel trade balance (April), Turkey current-account balance (March).

-EARNINGS: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc., TransDigm Group Inc., Electronic Arts Inc., Allergan Plc., Walt Disney Co., Sun Life Financial Inc., George Weston Ltd., Kinross Gold Corp., S.A.C.I. Falabella, Grupo BTG Pactual, Credit Suisse Group AG, Nokia OYJ, ING Groep NV, thyssenkrupp AG, Mediaset Spa, Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc, Alcatel-Lucent SA, Mediobanca Spa, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG, Banco Poplare di Milano, Banca Carige Spa, easyJet Plc, Poste Italiane Spa, Banco Popolare SC.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: American Petroleum Institute inventory report (weekly), EIA short-term energy outlook (April); U.S. Agriculture estimates for crop supply and demand at 12:00 and for daily cattle, hog slaughter data at 14:00.

Wednesday, May 11

-Foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France meet in Berlin to revive momentum on a peace plan for eastern Ukraine, where breaches of a truce between government forces and Russian-backed separatists are increasing. Timing to be determined.

-Brazil’s lower house of Congress votes on the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. If impeached, she would have to step down as long as 180 days and be tried by the Senate for allegedly using state-bank loans to disguise fiscal deficits. Voting begins at 9:00 EDT in Brasilia.

-Carolyn Wilkins, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks at the CFA Institute annual conference on “Investing in a Changing World.” 08:45 EDT in Montreal.

-Peru’s Minister of Economy and Finance Alonso Segura opens the International Organization of Securities Commissions conference. Lima Stock Exchange Chairman Christian Laub will also speak. 14:00 local time (15:00 EDT). In Lima, through May 12.

-The World Economic Forum on Africa starts in Kigali, Rwanda. Click here for a preliminary agenda. Through May 13.

-U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is questioned by the House of Commons Treasury Committee about a report predicting “permanent damage” to the economy in the event of a vote to leave the European Union on June 23. Time in London to be determined.

-The annual forward power auction for the mid-Atlantic grid, the biggest power-pricing sale of the year, is held. System operator PJM Interconnection is purchasing commitments for power supplies for delivery in the 12-month period beginning June 1, 2019, through May 2020. Timing to be determined in Audubon, Pennsylvania.

-Jefferies hosts its Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference through May 12 in Miami.

-U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Adam Sieminski presents the agency’s International Energy Outlook for 2016 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at 09:30 EDT in Washington.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Thailand interest-rate decision.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. budget statement (April), Brazil retail sales (March), South Korea jobless data (April), Portugal inflation (April), Portugal unemployment (1Q), U.K. industrial production (March).

-EARNINGS: CA Inc., Macy’s Inc., Ameren Corp., CTT-Correios de Portugal SA, Deutsche Post AG, Alstom SA, Bilfinger SE, TUI AG, Vivendi SA, Tod’s SpA, Tim Participacoes SA.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on natural gas volume (weekly), U.S. Energy Information Administration’s crude oil inventory report (weekly).

Thursday, May 12

-Bank of England officials will probably leave their key rate at a record-low 0.5 percent as Britain’s referendum on its European Union membership clouds the nation’s economic outlook. The decision, forecasts and vote split will be published at noon in London, followed by a press conference by Governor Mark Carney. 12:00 in London (07:00 EDT).

-Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, presents his views on the current economic outlook and how it pertains to New Hampshire. 11:45 EDT in Concord, New Hampshire.

-European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks in Madrid on the challenges for the European banking industry. 18:40 in Madrid (12:40 EDT).

-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George speaks about the U.S. economy at a luncheon hosted by the Kansas City Fed. 12:30 local time in Albuquerque, New Mexico (13:30 EDT).

-Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will speak on monetary policy in Reichenau Island, Germany, at 17:00 local time (11:00 EDT).

-U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron hosts an anti-corruption summit attended by government leaders, business executives and civil-society groups. Timing in London to be determined.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski are among the speakers at “Europe in Crisis Mode,” a panel discussion starting at 10:00 in Berlin (04:00 EDT).

-World Gold Council will publish a report on first-quarter global demand at midnight in New York.

-The Arab Economic Forum opens in Beirut. This year topics include the challenges facing regional economies from political instability, economic contraction and the global decline in oil prices.

-The $10 million Players Championship, the tournament known informally as golf’s “fifth major,” opens at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Tee times and pairings to be determined. Through May 15.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Rate decisions in Peru and Philippines, summary of Bank of Japan’s April meeting.

-ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. import-price index (April), Mexico industrial production (March), Japan current account data (March), South Africa mining production (March) and manufacturing production (March), U.K. RICS house-price index (April); euro-area industrial production (March).

-EARNINGS: Symantec Corp., Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Nvidia Corp., Enbridge Inc., Crescent Point Energy Corp., Banco do Brasil SA, Kroton Educacional SA, Zurich Insurance Group AG, RWE AG, Credit Agricole SA, VimpelCom Ltd., Aegon NV, Skanska AB, Perigo Co Plc, Rheinmetall AG, Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna SC, A2A SpA, Euronext NV, Unione di Banche Italiane SpA, TalkTalk Telecom Group Plc.

-ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Bloomberg survey of analysts’ expectations on U.S. natural gas prices (weekly), U.S. natural gas inventory report (weekly), International Energy Agency oil market report (monthly).

Friday, May 13

-U.S. retail sales probably increased in April for the first time this year, indicating consumers are becoming less apprehensive about spending, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 EDT in Washington.

-U.S. consumer sentiment probably climbed in May from a seven-month low as Americans weigh favorable current views of the labor market and their finances against concerns about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index will be issued at 10:00 in Washington.

-U.S. President Barack Obama will host the leaders of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden at the White House for a U.S.-Nordic Leaders Summit, followed by a state dinner.

-San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economy at the Sacramento Economic Forum in California. 13:00 local time (16:00 EDT).

-Americas Society/Council of the Americas hold the 2016 Latin American Cities Conference in Mexico City. Private- and public-sector leaders will discuss the effects of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto’s constitutional reforms.

-Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa speaks at a debate in parliament. 10:00 in Lisbon (04:00 EDT).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Interest-rate decisions in Zambia and South Korea, Colombia meeting minutes, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo at 12:30 local time (05/12 23:30 EDT).

-ECONOMY: Bank of Canada Financial Statistics (weekly), U.S. producer-price index (April), U.S. business inventories (March), Hong Kong GDP (1Q), Malaysia GDP (1Q), Portugal gross domestic product estimate (1Q), Portugal labor cost index (1Q), German GDP (1Q); Italy GDP (1Q); euro-area GDP (1Q - second estimate); Greece GDP (1Q).

-EARNINGS: Brookfield Asset Management Inc., Oesterreichische Post AG, Manchester United Plc, Bouygues SA, Telecom Italia SpA, Hapag-Lloyd AG.

-ENERGY: Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count (weekly), U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report (weekly), OPEC oil market report (monthly).

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Austria (DBRS), Egypt (S&P), Georgia (S&P), Ireland (Moody’s), Italy (S&P), Lithuania (Moody’s), Montenegro (Moody’s & S&P), Norway (DBRS), Poland (Moody’s), Ukraine (Fitch).

Saturday, May 14

-ECONOMY: China industrial output, retail sales (April).

(Corrects title of Rachel Kyte on Tuesday, May 10. She is no longer with the World Bank.)

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