The prospects of a relief rally in emerging-market currencies are rising after the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, Societe Generale SA said.
“The chance of a meaningful and sustained relief rally in emerging-market foreign exchange is low, but has increased in recent days,” Jason Daw, a strategist at Societe Generale in Singapore, said in an e-mailed report on Monday. His models put chances of a rebound in emerging-market currencies at 33 percent after a “dovish” Fed move.
A gauge of 20 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg has lost 15 percent this year, the most since the 2008 financial crisis. The weakness has coincided with an economic slowdown in China, slumping commodity prices and a rally in the dollar as investors brace for higher interest rates. Traders see 74 percent odds that the Fed will raise borrowing costs on Dec. 16.
“Once the first hike is out of the way, policy uncertainty will quickly rise again” and “restrain investors from deploying incremental capital into emerging markets,” Daw said. “A soothing message from the Fed would help ease the pain but it would not be a panacea for the ills facing emerging-market currencies.”