Argentina’s Scioli Would Win Election in First Round, Poll Finds

  • Ruling party candidate has 42 percent of vote intention
  • Argentines will vote in presidential election Oct. 25

Argentine ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli would win the Oct. 25 presidential election in the first round, according to a poll by Ipsos-Mora y Araujo published in Buenos Aires-based newspaper Perfil.

Scioli, who seeks to replace incumbent president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, would get 42 percent of the votes against Cambiemos alliance’s candidate and current Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, who has 28 percent support, according to the poll. Unidos por una Nueva Argentina alliance’s Sergio Massa has 23 percent. Scioli is a former Argentine vice president and since 2007 has been governor of Buenos Aires, the country’s largest and most populous province.

Under Argentina law, a candidate wins the election in the first round if he or she gets 45 percent of the votes or more than 40 percent with a difference of 10 percentage points over the nearest rival. A runoff election would take place Nov. 22.

The nationwide poll was based on 1,209 interviews conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 15, and has a margin of error of plus or minutes 2.81 percentage points, Perfil says.

Newspaper Pagina 12 also posted a poll that shows Scioli would win 37.9 percent of the vote, versus Macri’s 26.3 percent and Massa’s 20.4 percent. The pollster Centro de Estudios de Opinion Publica interviewed 2,737 people nationwide by telephone. It didn’t provide a margin of error or dates when the interviews were conducted.

Another poll published Oct. 17 by newspaper Clarin showed Scioli has the support of 38.3 percent of likely voters.

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