UBS Group AG, the world’s largest private bank, is advising its wealthy clients to sell the euro, saying a worsening inflation outlook has increased the risk of further quantitative easing in Europe.
The single currency is set to weaken to $1.05 in three months, James Purcell, a Hong Kong-based cross asset strategist for UBS’s wealth management business, said in an interview Thursday.
The euro has fallen for three straight days, losing 2.8 percent, to trade at $1.1291 as of 10:50 a.m. in London. The common currency had climbed to a seven-month of $1.1714 on Aug. 24, as a slump in stocks around the world boosted demand for the currency as a haven.
“This move in the risk-off, where you’d normally expect U.S. dollar strength, has been in part technical in nature,” Purcell said. “As a consequence, we see it as kind of an opportunistic point to enter the cross.”
The European Central Bank is ready to expand or extend its asset-buying program as slump in commodity prices and risks to global economic growth threaten its inflation goal, Executive Board member Peter Praet told reporters on Wednesday.
“Maybe they’ll end up extending their QE potentially or even increasing their monthly purchasing response,” Purcell said. “‘We probably put it as a minority risk, rather than a base case.”
The euro last traded at $1.05 on March 16, the same day it dropped to the lowest level since January 2003.