Greek Vote, BOE, Yellen, Iran, Sun Valley: Week Ahead July 4-11

Greek voters decide whether to accept more austerity in a referendum called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

U.S. service industries probably expanded last month at a faster pace, while May’s trade deficit is seen widening on a dollar-driven demand for imports.

The Bank of England makes its monetary policy decision, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announces his first budget since the May 7 general election and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen discusses the U.S. economic outlook in Cleveland.

The Toronto Global Forum takes place and the annual Sun Valley Conference, known for hatching major media-industry deals, kicks off in Idaho.

Extended talks to reach a final accord on limiting Iran’s nuclear program are scheduled to conclude Tuesday in Vienna.

Pope Francis begins a seven-day trip to Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay.

The U.S. faces Japan for the Women’s World Cup title, the Wimbledon tennis tournament continues and the Tour de France begins.

SATURDAY, JULY 4

-Independence Day. The U.S. marks the federal holiday celebrating its July 4, 1776, Declaration of Independence from Great Britain. Celebrations on the Fourth of July include family cookouts, parades and fireworks displays.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts an open house at her party’s headquarters, where she may address the situation in Greece. Doors open 11:00 in Berlin (05:00 EDT), with Merkel attending from 12:30 (06:30 EDT).

-Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer speaks on a panel discussion at the Rencontres Economiques d’Aix-en-Provence. Other participants include Renault SA Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn, Total SA CEO Patrick Pouyanne and Electricite de France SA CEO Jean-Bernard Levy. 08:00 (02:00 EDT).

-Tour de France. Vincenzo Nibali of Astana will attempt to defend his title against ex-champions Chris Froome of Team Sky and Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo. The three-week, 3,360 kilometer (2,088 mile) cycling race with 21 stages begins in Utrecht, Netherlands. Race ends July 26 in Paris.

-Soccer. Germany plays England in a match for third place at the Women’s World Cup. Kickoff is scheduled for 14:00 (16:00 EDT) at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton.

-Host Chile plays Argentina in the final of Copa America, soccer’s oldest regional tournament. 17:00 (16:00 EDT) in Santiago de Chile.

SUNDAY, JULY 5

-Greece holds a snap referendum on whether to agree to creditors’ demands for receiving more financial aid. The vote follows a week in which the country’s banks were closed amid the expiration of an international bailout. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says a “no” vote will strengthen his hand for further negotiations. Polls indicate the result is too close to call. Voting ends at 19:00 (12:00 EDT) in Athens.

-European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure participates in a panel discussion at Rencontres Economiques d’Aix-en-Provence. Other speakers include European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron and Air France-KLM Group Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac. 08:00 (02:00 EDT).

-Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, under pressure from inside his party amid low poll ratings leading up to a general election, gives a speech at 12:00 (06:00 EDT) in Guadarrama on the outskirts of Madrid.

-Argentina holds elections in Cordoba province and the city of Buenos Aires, its second- and fourth-largest electoral districts. Opposition presidential candidate Mauricio Macri is hoping his chosen successor, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, can win in a first round and avoid a potentially tight runoff that could damage his bid for the presidency. Elections will also take place in La Pampa and La Rioja provinces. Exit polls expected at 19:30 (18:30 EDT).

-Pope Francis starts a seven-day trip to Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay that includes meetings with Presidents Rafael Correa, Evo Morales and Horacio Cartes. Through 07/12.

-Soccer. The U.S. faces Japan for the Women’s World Cup title in a rematch of the 2011 final, which Japan won on penalty kicks. 16:00 (19:00 EDT) at BC Place Stadium in Vancouver.

-British Grand Prix. The Formula One race begins at 13:00 (08:00 EDT) in Silverstone, England.

-The Grateful Dead gives its final performance as part of the band’s “Fare Thee Well: Celebrating 50 Years of Grateful Dead” series. 19:00 (20:00 EDT) at Soldier Field in Chicago.

MONDAY, JULY 6

-Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in June at a faster pace than the previous month, signaling the economy is improving after a weak start to the year, according to the median economist forecast of the Institute for Supply Management’s index. 10:00 in Washington.

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer presents the Bank of France’s Regulated Savings Plan. 10:00 in Paris (04:00 EDT)

-Leaders of the ethanol industry will discuss the outlook for their market at a conference in Sao Paulo. Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Aldemir Bendine, Brazil’s Mines & Energy Minister Eduardo Braga, Agriculture Minister Katia Abreu and ANP Director Magda Chambriard are among speakers. Through 07/07.

-Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a meeting of managers of the central bank’s regional branches. 09:30 in Tokyo (07/05 20:30 EDT).

-Wimbledon. The grass-court tennis tournament continues in southwest London, with men’s and women’s fourth-round singles. Play begins on Centre and No. 1 courts at 13:00 in London (08:00 EDT).

-Hungarian lawmakers elect the chairman and members of the central bank’s supervisory board from 10:00 (04:00 EDT) in Budapest.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for schedule.

-ECONOMY: U.S. Markit services index (June final), U.S. labor market conditions index (June), Canada Ivey PMI (June), Canada business sales optimism (2Q), German factory orders (May), Swiss CPI (June), Ukraine CPI (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

-CENTRAL BANKS: European Central Bank announces QE purchases for June.

TUESDAY, JULY 7

-The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in May as a stronger economy boosted demand for imports, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 08:30 in Washington.

-Iran deadline. Talks in Vienna to reach a final accord on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program were extended to today from an initial self-imposed cutoff date of June 30.

-The U.S. Senate plans to take up a compromise bill this week that would replace No Child Left Behind, former President George W. Bush’s signature education law that established federal testing standards to measure learning progress. The chamber under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may also work on a cybersecurity bill and a highway-funding measure attaching a reauthorization of the lapsed Export-Import Bank.

-The U.S. House of Representatives may vote this week on the bipartisan 21st Century Cures bill, which would overhaul the way drugs are developed and approved in the interest of speeding new medical treatments to market.

-European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer speaks at the Paris Europlace conference. 09:00 local time (03:00 EDT). Societe Generale SA Chief Executive Frederic Oudea, BNP Paribas SA Chairman Jean Lemierre and French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron also speak. Through 07/08.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook with forecasts for oil, natural gas, power prices and supply. Noon in Washington.

-Sun Valley conference. Billionaires, chief executive officers and leaders from the technology, media, and finance industries gather at the annual Idaho mountain resort conference hosted by investment banking firm Allen & Co. Major media deals have been hatched at Sun Valley, including Comcast Corp.’s acquisition of NBC Universal. Through 07/11.

-The Anaheim, California, city council considers a proposal by Walt Disney Co. to invest at least $1 billion in its Disneyland resort in exchange for continued protection from a potential entertainment tax. There currently is no such tax and the media company’s existing deal with the city ends in 2016.

-ECONOMY: U.S. job openings/labor turnover (May), U.S. consumer credit (May), Canada trade balance (May), Taiwan inflation (June), Taiwan exports/imports (June), German industrial production (May), U.K. industrial production (May), Swiss unemployment (June), Swiss National Bank foreign-currency reserves (June), Ukraine may report offical reserves (June), Russia may report CPI (June)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Australia rate decision, Kenya interest-rate decision

-EARNINGS: Samsung Electronics Co. (preliminary)

WEDNESDAY, JULY 8

-U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announces tax and spending changes in his first budget since Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a surprise parliamentary majority in May’s election. Speech starts 12:30 (07:30 EDT) in the House of Commons in London.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin opens a three-day summit of the BRICS nations -- Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa -- in Ufa, Russia. The summit coincides with a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose members include China, Russia and its central Asian neighbors, as the Russian leader looks to strengthen ties with allies amid his increasing isolation from the West. South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene attends. Through 07/10.

-Toronto Global Forum: Pan American Edition. U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue, Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Ben Van Beurden and Pacific Investment Management Co. CEO Douglas Hodge are among scheduled speakers at the three-day gathering of business and economic decision makers hosted by the International Economic Forum of the Americas. Click here for schedule.

-Climate Summit of the Americas. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, ex-Mexico President Felipe Calderon and California Governor Jerry Brown are among speakers at the summit hosted by the Canadian province of Ontario. Through 07/09.

-U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew discusses financial stability and the economy five years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. 08:30 Brookings Institution, Washington.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, speaks at the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists in Los Angeles. 11:00 (14:00 EDT).

-European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on the occasion of the publication of the report “The International Role of the Euro” in Frankfurt. 11:00 (05:00 EDT).

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Serbia and meets with leaders, including Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, to discuss European Union accession, Kosovo relations, the economy and refugees.

-Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho attends the state of the nation debate in parliament. 15:00 in Lisbon (10:00 EDT).

-Comic-Con International. The annual comic-book convention, also used by film and TV companies to highlight future features, runs through July 12 in San Diego. Guests include Allie Brosh, author of the New York Times bestseller “Hyperbole and a Half” and Stan Lee, writer-editor-co-creator of “Fantastic Four,” “Spider-Man,” “Avengers” and “X-Men,” along with four days of programs.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), Brazil IPCA inflation index (June), Japan current account (May), Korean bank lending to households (June), Korean money supply (May), Turkey industrial production (May), Hungary CPI (June)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Open Market Committee June meeting minutes; Bank of England publishes record of June 24 Financial Policy Committee meeting; Hungarian central bank publishes minutes of June 23 meeting; Polish rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Alcoa Inc.

THURSDAY, JULY 9

-Chinese consumer inflation may have accelerated in June, after slowing in May, signaling the start of an economic recovery. Factory-gate price deflation may have stabilized. 09:30 in Beijing (07/08 21:30 EDT).

-The Bank of Korea announces monetary policy after it cut its key interest rate to a record low of 1.5 percent in June and warned about the threat to the economy from the respiratory illness MERS, which has killed more than 30 people so far in the nation. About 10:00 in Seoul (07/08 21:00 EDT).

-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gives a keynote speech at the Economist’s Japan Summit in Tokyo, where he is likely to give details on the third phase of his Abenomics program to revive Asia’s second-biggest economy. 09:30 in Tokyo (07/08 20:30 EDT).

-Bank of England decision. The BOE announces its Monetary Policy Committee’s July decision on the benchmark interest rate and asset-purchase facility. Policy makers will weigh the need to leave borrowing costs at a record-low 0.5 percent as restraints on the economy and inflation fade, and wage growth accelerates. 12:00 (07:00 EDT) in London.

-The International Monetary Fund will release revisions to its World Economic Outlook report. 09:00 in Washington.

-Finance ministers Wolfgang Schaeuble of Germany and Michel Sapin of France speak at a Bundesbank conference on how to protect Europe from future financial crises. Panel starts at 14:30 (08:30 EDT) in Frankfurt. Other speakers include Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota and former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer speaks on the credit-card system. 10:30 (04:30 EDT) in Paris.

-Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard discusses the future of regulatory reform and implementation as the keynote speaker at the Bipartisan Policy Center event, “Dodd-Frank at Five: Looking Back and Looking Ahead.” 10:00 in Washington.

-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George discusses monetary policy and the U.S. economic outlook at Oklahoma State University. 11:30 (12:30 EDT) in Stillwater.

-Elementia SAB, jointly owned by Carlos Slim and Antonio del Valle Ruiz, plans to raise about 4.5 billion pesos ($287 million) in the first initial public offering of a Mexican cement company in at least 15 years. The shares of the Mexico City-based company will begin trading July 10 on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker ELEMENT*.

-Today marks the deadline required by the U.S. Congress to begin a 30-day review of any deal struck between Iran and U.S.-led negotiators on limiting the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program. After this, lawmakers would get 60 days for a review.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), Canada housing starts (June), Mexico inflation (June), Australia jobless rate (June), German exports (May), U.K. RICS house prices (June), British Chambers of Commerce publishes 2Q economic forecasts, Greek CPI (June), Greek unemployment (April), South Africa manufacturing growth (May), Czech CPI (June), Russia gold and foreign currency reserves (July 3)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Peru rate decision, Malaysia rate decision, Serbia rate decision

-EARNINGS: PepsiCo Inc., Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., Fast Retailing Co.

FRIDAY, JULY 10

-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen discusses the U.S. economic outlook at The City Club of Cleveland. Noon EDT.

-Chinese new lending may have increased in June for a second month, suggesting continued monetary easing is reaching the larger economy. Any day between July 10 and July 15.

-U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew joins Politico’s “America’s Fiscal Future” live event series. 08:00 at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York.

-Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren is the keynote speaker at the 7th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. 09:35 (11:35 EDT) in Victor, Idaho.

-The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil market report with an outlook on global crude demand, supply and stockpiles. The report has projections through the end of 2016. 10:00 in Paris (04:00 EDT).

-ATM thief’s accomplice sentenced. Jose Familia Reyes, 27, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy after being accused of illegal automated teller machine withdrawals totaling at least $40,000, has argued for a term of 2 1/2 to three years. He was in a New York group allegedly run by Ercan Findikoglu, accused by the U.S. Justice Department of masterminding the theft of $55 million worldwide from ATMs. Currently scheduled for 11:00 in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn, New York.

-Universal Pictures’ “Minions,” a spinoff of its “Despicable Me” animated film series, debuts in U.S. and Canadian theaters. The film is expected to be the second-biggest of the summer movie season, with $97 million in ticket receipts expected in its first weekend and $330 million over its full North America run, according to BoxOffice.com.

-ECONOMY: U.S. wholesale inventories (May), Canada unemployment (June), Mexico industrial production (May), U.K. trade balance (May), U.K. construction output (May), French industrial production (May), Italian industrial production (May), Greek industrial production (May), Turkey current account balance (May), Portugal consumer price index (June)

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Abu Dhabi (Fitch), Ethiopia (Moody’s), European Union (Moody’s), Germany (Fitch & S&P), Hungary (Moody’s), Luxembourg (Fitch), Malta (S&P), Netherlands (Moody’s), Switzerland (Moody’s), Uganda (S&P), United Kingdom (DBRS)

SATURDAY, JULY 11

-Wimbledon. Women’s finals of the grass-court tennis tournament in southwest London. 14:00 (09:00 EDT).

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