Canada Household Confidence Reaches 5-Week High on Real Estate

Canadian consumer sentiment reached a five-week high on reduced concern about the threat to home prices from an oil shock.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index rose to 56.8 from 56.6 in the week ending June 26, from 56.6 in the prior period, polling by Nanos Research Group shows. That’s the most optimistic reading since May and close to the 2015 high of 56.9.

The share of people saying home prices in their area will fall in the next six months declined to the lowest since November at 13.2 percent.

“Real estate remains the one positive driver of consumer sentiment in Canada,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos. “Any negative changes in the real estate market would have a material downward impact on the confidence in the Canadian economy.”

Home sales and prices in Toronto and Vancouver, two of the country’s largest real estate markets, are gaining this year thanks to low interest rates and rising demand. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Larry Schembri said June 25 the housing market is poised for a soft landing after a period of record prices and elevated consumer debt.

The Pocketbook sub-index, based on responses about job security and personal finances, rose from the lowest since September last week to 60.6 from 59.9.

The Expectations sub-index, based on responses about the outlook for real estate and the national economy, fell to 53.0 from 53.4, which was the highest since mid-December.

The Nanos poll is based on a four-week rolling average of 1,000 responses taken in a random telephone survey. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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