Bordeaux wine prices from the 2014 vintage have potential to climb over the next 10 years after both new releases and the secondary market lost money for four years, according to London-based Wine Asset Managers LLP.
The 2013 first growths released last year have lost about 20 percent, and the 2009 vintage is also below the first release price, the fund manager said in a blog on its website. Prices declined in the face of cooling Chinese demand and a decline in the quality of vintages coming to market since 2011.
“The market as a whole has not been a good investment over the last four years, but should change from here,” Wine Asset Managers said. “First-growth 2014 release prices look OK.”
Some Bordeaux 2014 wines tracked by Liv-ex were sold into the market at increased prices relative to the 2013 vintage, Liv-ex data show. That came even as distributors for Bordeaux estates still have inventory left over from 2011-2013 vintages, according to Wine Asset Managers.
“Since the correction has almost certainly taken place, it is not unreasonable to assume that the secondary market in existing older vintages and the 2014 first-growth releases will both go up from here over the next 10 years.”
The first-growth wines from the left bank of the Gironde estuary include Chateau Lafite-Rothschild, Chateau Latour, Chateau Margaux and Chateau Haut-Brion from the original 1855 classification and Chateau Mouton-Rothschild, added in 1973.
The Liv-Ex Fine Wine 50 Index, comprising 10 recent physically available vintages from each of these growers, has risen 1.9 percent since the start of this year after dropping 40 percent from its mid-2011 peak.