MACAU GAMING PREVIEW: Monthly Casino Sales Slump to Come Full Yr

Macau gaming regulators to post gross gaming revenue data for May on website as early as today.

ESTIMATE

  • Median -38.5% y/y to 19.9b patacas ($2.49b), according to 7 analysts ests. compiled by Bloomberg
  • Range -37% to -40%

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Nomura says investors shouldn’t “bottom-fish” yet because valuation not attractive, possible earnings cut, analysts led by Harry Curtis write in May 28 note
  • More “conviction” on transformation of Macau mkt to be driven by mass mkt demand after visit to Galaxy’s new casinos: Nomura
  • Most junket operators at Galaxy’s new properties not too excited and showed more interest in expanding VIP business to casinos in Manila, Vietnam and Australia, Deutsche analyst Karen Tang wrote in May 28 note
  • UBS expects sector volatility in June after Galaxy’s new openings, analysts led by Anthony Wong wrote in May 22 note
  • Bloomberg Intelligence: Most Macau Casinos’ Gambling Profit Is From Mass Market, Not VIP
    • VIP Dependence Wanes With Macau Casinos Turning to Mass Market

BLOOMBERG DATA

  • Galaxy Entertainment is highest-rated among H.K.-listed Macau casino operators, according to Bloomberg consensus analyst ratings; Wynn Macau is lowest rated
  • BI Macau (China) Gaming Market Index -24% YTD
  • Click here for chart on comparative P/E and YTD returns for 6 casino operators in Macau

RELATED STORIES

  • Forget Greece, Macau Is the World’s Worst Performing Economy
  • Macau 1Q Retail Sales Fall 11% Y/y on Luxury Goods: Macao Daily
  • Galaxy Faces Demand Challenge Amid New Casino Opening: Credit Suisse

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