EUROPE EVENT RISK TIMELINE: Greece Talks, OMT Ruling Eyed

Greece’s uncertain outlook remains center stage as negotiations continue and the extension of the euro-area-backed bailout expires at end of June. ECJ’s final ruling on ECB’s OMT is also in focus as investors weigh the risk of contagion to other peripheral countries should the situation in Greece deteriorate.

MAIN RISKS:

  • As debate between Greece and its creditors remains unresolved, analysts still think a solution can be found
    • Deutsche Bank calculates 40% chance of capital controls and Credit Agricole sees 20% chance of an orderly restructuring
    • Payments due to the IMF in June and the ECB in July and August in focus; see timeline here
  • Outlook for U.S. economy after 1Q weakness and potential timing of first Fed rate rise likely to dominate market action with bonds stabilizing as June liftoff seems unlikely
  • OPEC meeting next week to provide clues on output plans with oil prices near six-week lows and inflation below target in most G-7 countries
  • China’s policy response eyed amid slowing growth
  • Fallout from breakdown of two-party system in Spain’s regional elections as well as elections in Italy this weekend may raise political risk

JUNE

  • (Greece payments due to IMF of ~EU1.6b; Greece could bundle the payments under IMF policy and make them all on June 19; a spokesman for the fund said Greece hasn’t requested to do so)
  • 2: Euro zone May CPI estimate
  • 3: ECB policy decision; staff forecasts
  • 4: BOE policy decision
  • 5: S&P may review Ireland’s credit rating
  • 5: OPEC meeting, Vienna
  • 5: Greece scheduled to repay IMF loans totaling ~EU300m
  • 7-8: G-7/G-8 summit
  • 12: Greece needs to refinance EU3.6b in t-bills
  • 12: Greece scheduled to repay IMF ~EU340m
  • 12: S&P may review U.K.’s credit rating; Moody’s may review Italy ratings; Fitch may review France, U. K., Sweden, EFSF, ESM ratings
  • 16: Greece scheduled to repay IMF ~EU565m
  • 16: ECJ ruling on OMT
  • 16: U.K. May CPI
  • 16-17: FOMC meeting, quarterly press conference and summary of economic projection
  • 17: ECB GC non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
  • 17: BOE minutes; U.K. claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 18: Euro-area finance ministers meet
  • 18: TLTRO 4 allotment
  • 19: Greece needs to refinance EU1.6b in t-bills
  • 19: Greece scheduled to repay IMF ~EU340m
  • 19: Greece needs to service ~EU85m in interest on bonds held by ECB
  • 19: Moody’s may review Spain ratings
  • 23: Euro-zone preliminary June PMIs
  • 25-26: EU leaders summit in Brussels
  • 30: Euro-zone June CPI estimate
  • 30: U.K. 1Q final GDP
  • 30: Greece’s euro-area-backed bailout extension expires
JULY
  • During the month, Greece needs to repay ~EU4.9b in bailout loans and interest to its official creditors, including EU3.5b in bonds held by the ECB
  • 1: ECB GC non-monetary policy meeting
  • 2: ECB publishes account of monetary policy meeting
  • 7: U.K. budget statement
  • 9: BOE rate decision
  • 10: Fitch, S&P may review Germany’s rating
  • 13: Euro-area finance ministers meet
  • 14: U.K. June CPI
  • 15: U.K. June claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 16: ECB rate decision
  • 22: BOE Minutes
  • 24: Euro-zone July preliminary PMIs
  • 28: U.K. initial 2Q GDP
  • 30: ECB publishes economic bulletin
  • 31: EC June unemployment rate
  • 31: Euro zone July CPI estimate
  • 31: Moody’s may review Greece’s rating
AUGUST
  • During the month, Greece needs to repay ~EU3.8b in bailout loans and interest to its official creditors, including EU3.2b in bonds held by the ECB
  • 6: BOE’s first “Super Thursday:” rate decision, quarterly inflation report and minutes all due
  • 7: Fitch may review Austria, Ireland ratings
  • 12: U.K. July claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 13: ECB publishes account of policy meeting
  • 14: EC advance 2Q GDP
  • 18: U.K. July CPI
  • 28: U.K. preliminary 2Q GDP
  • 31: Euro-zone August CPI estimate
SEPTEMBER
  • Portugal’s general election will take place between Sept. 14 and Oct. 14
    • Socialists, biggest opposition party, widen lead; Moody’s may await election outcome to change rating
  • 3: ECB rate decision
  • 10: BOE rate decision
  • 11: S&P may review Greece’s rating
  • 11: Start of campaigning for Catalan regional vote
  • 15: U.K. Aug. CPI
  • 16: Euro-zone Aug. CPI
  • 16: U.K. August claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 17: FOMC rate decision
  • 17 ECB General Council meeting
  • 18: S&P may review Portugal’s rating; Moody’s may review France, U.K.; Fitch may review Finland
  • 23: Euro zone Sept preliminary PMIs
  • 24: TLTRO 5 allotment
  • 25: S&P may review Austria’s rating; Fitch may review Portugal’s rating; Moody’s may review ESM’s rating
  • 27: Catalonia elections; may boost risks of independence referendum
  • 30: U.K. Final 2Q GDP
OCTOBER
  • 2: Moody’s may review Finland’s rating; S&P may review Spain
  • 8: BOE rate decision
  • 13: U.K. Sept. CPI
  • 16: Moody’s may review Spain rating
  • 16: Euro-zone Sept. CPI estimate
  • 14: U.K. June claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 22: ECB rate decision
  • 23: Euro zone Oct preliminary PMIs
  • 23: Fitch may review Italy, Spain ratings; Moody’s may review Austria, Germany ratings
  • 27: U.K. initial 3Q GDP
  • 30: Euro zone Oct. CPI estimate
  • NOV
  • 2: UK Oct. PMIs
  • 5: BOE rate decision; inflation report
  • 11: U.K. June claimant count; weekly earnings
  • 13: Fitch may review Greece; S&P may review Italy’s rating
  • 13: EC Advance 3Q GDP
  • 17 : U.K. Oct. CPI
  • 23: Euro zone Nov. preliminary PMIs

BEYOND NOV.:

  • TLTRO 6 allotment on Dec. 11
  • Spain general elections
  • New political groups Podemos and Ciudadanos won significant share of the votes from the traditional parties at the regional elections in May

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