Tanzanian Ruling Party Seen Stronger as Opposition Expels Leader

Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party is expected to gain support before elections this year after a dispute within the main opposition party that resulted in the expulsion of its leader, according to Teneo Intelligence.

Zitto Kabwe stepped down as lawmaker and chairman of Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee after Chama Cha Demokrasia expelled him, according to his last speech to the National Assembly, a copy of which was posted on his blog March 20. Chadema, as the main opposition party is known, expelled Kabwe on allegations that he planned to “wreck” the party, Dar es Salaam-based Citizen newspaper reported March 11.

“Chadema’s infighting only reinforces widespread public perceptions that the party, despite its popularity in urban parts of the country, is unprepared for national government,” Ahmed Salim, a Dubai-based analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said Tuesday in an e-mailed note.

Tanzania, East Africa’s second-biggest economy with natural-gas reserves estimated at 50.5 trillion cubic feet, is preparing to hold elections in October, when President Jakaya Kikwete will step down after two terms in office. Former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and Deputy Communications Minister January Makamba have declared their intention to seek the nomination of the ruling party, known as the CCM, to succeed Kikwete.

As head of the Public Accounts Committee, Kabwe uncovered various corruption scandals, including the suspected irregular transfer of 200 billion shillings ($108 million) from an escrow account in the central bank to power producers. The scandal is partly the reason foreign donors including the U.K, Japan, Germany and the World Bank withheld as much as $558 million of aid for Tanzania’s 2014-15 budget.

‘Real Thorn’

Kabwe’s investigations resulted in the resignations of cabinet ministers, which was “a real thorn” to the CCM Kikwete’s government, Salim said. “Kabwe’s removal as head of the PAC significantly eliminates the chances of intense parliamentary scrutiny of CCM’s policies and actions.”

Since leaving the Chadema, Kabwe has joined the newly created Alliance for Change and Transparency party.

While external threats to the CCM’s political dominance diminish, Salim said the party’s popularity is also declining, partly because of its failure to properly manage a planned referendum on a new constitution scheduled for April 30. The National Electoral Commission is yet to acquire the 8,000 biometric voter-registration kits it needs to register about 25 million eligible voters, he said.

Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda has said the referendum may be delayed.

“Failure to meet the 30 April deadline would be a huge embarrassment for President Jakaya Kikwete’s administration, which has expended much political capital on the issue,” Salim said.