Brazil’s real led global currency gains on speculation voters are reducing support for the re-election of President Dilma Rousseff as an opposition candidate gains ground.
The real climbed 1.2 percent to 2.2617 per dollar today in Sao Paulo, the biggest increase since July 18. The rally was the largest among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Swap rates, a gauge of expectations for interest-rate moves, fell six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 11.41 percent on the contract maturing in January 2018.
Bets that Rousseff is losing popularity after overseeing the slowest growth in two decades has helped push the real up 4.4 percent this year. An Ibope poll released after trading hours showed opposition candidate Marina Silva would win in a second round of voting, with 45 percent to Rousseff’s 36 percent. Ibope surveyed 2,506 people Aug. 23-25.
“Silva’s marketing people are guaranteeing a surprise,” Ricardo Gomes da Silva, a currency trader at Correparti Corretora de Cambio, said in a telephone interview from Curitiba, Brazil.
Earlier, Veja columnist Lauro Jardim had reported that the Ibope poll would show Silva winning in the second round. Ibope said in an e-mailed statement that the report was based on speculation.
Candidates are scheduled to meet in their first televised debate at 10 p.m. local time.
To support the real and limit import-price increases, Brazil sold $197.4 million of foreign-exchange swaps and rolled over contracts worth $494.7 million. Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday in Sao Paulo that the country has maintained a floating exchange rate with “some” intervention.