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July Most Likely Month for Extra BOJ Easing: Survey

Thirty-eight percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus in July, down from 43 percent in a survey last month.

Following are the results of the most recent survey, conducted May 2 to 8.

1) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus? 
===============================================================
Response Count:                32    100%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. May                          0       -
B. June                         2      6%
C. July                        12     38%
D. Aug.                         0       -
E. Sept.                        1      3%
F. Oct. 7                       1      3%
G. Oct. 31                      8     25%
H. Nov.                         0       -
I. Dec.                         0       -
J. Jan. 2015                    1      3%
K. Feb 2015                     0       -
L. Mar. 2015                    0       -
M. Apr. 2015 or later           2      6%
N. Don’t expect                 5     16%

===============================================================

2) How would the BOJ ease more next time? =============================================================== Response Count: --------------------------------------------------------------- A. Expand monetary base 20 B. Expand JGBs 21 C. Expand ETFs 26 D. Expand J-REITs 14 E. Cut excess reserve rate 1 F. Others 8 =============================================================== 3) When will the BOJ start tapering? =============================================================== Response Count: 28 --------------------------------------------------------------- A. 1H 2014 0 B. 2H 2014 0 C. 1H 2015 0 D. 2H 2015 0 E. 1H 2016 3 F. 2H 2016 3 G. 1H 2017 3 H. 2H 2017 0 I. After 2018 7 J. Unforeseeable 12 =============================================================== 4) The Bank of Japan has said that Core CPI (inflation excluding fresh food, and also excluding the effects of the sales tax rises) is likely to reach around 2% y/y -- the price stability target -- the price stability target -- around the middle of the projection period through fiscal 2016. Do you think this forecast is achievable? =============================================================== 2% Inflation Yes No --------------------------------------------------------------- Reach target 2 29 =============================================================== 5) What are your forecasts for these items? ================================================================ Median Forecast FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Real GDP growth rate 2.2 0.8 1.2 1 Core CPI (minus sales tax)0.8 1 1.1 1.2 ================================================================

(Corrects GDP and CPI forecasts in story published May 8th.)

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