Bloomberg Anywhere Login

Bloomberg

Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.

Company

Financial Products

Enterprise Products

Media

Customer Support

  • Americas

    +1 212 318 2000

  • Europe, Middle East, & Africa

    +44 20 7330 7500

  • Asia Pacific

    +65 6212 1000

Communications

Industry Products

Media Services

Follow Us

Employers in U.S. Probably Added Most Workers in Five Months

Job seekers look over business cards before entering a job fair hosted by JobExpo.com in Dallas, Texas, U.S. Photographer: Ben Torres/Bloomberg
Job seekers look over business cards before entering a job fair hosted by JobExpo.com in Dallas, Texas, U.S. Photographer: Ben Torres/Bloomberg

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. probably boosted headcounts in April by the most in five months as companies grew confident the economy will snap back from a first-quarter slowdown, economists project a report will show today.

Payrolls rose by 218,000 last month after a 192,000 gain in March, according to the median forecast of 94 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The jobless rate may have dropped to 6.6 percent, matching January as the lowest since October 2008.

Households spent more freely as the first quarter drew to a close and manufacturing accelerated, helping explain why companies such as Ford Motor Co. are adding more workers. Faster payroll growth would corroborate the Federal Reserve’s view that the expansion is perking up after stalling last quarter.

“We’re seeing this continued improvement,” said Michael Carey, chief economist for North America at Credit Agricole CIB in New York. Fed officials “knew that there was going to be a slowdown in the first quarter, but I think they’re looking ahead to say employment seems to be continuing to improve, and that’s what they’re really focused on.”

Payroll estimates in the Bloomberg survey before the Labor Department’s report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington ranged from increases of 155,000 to 292,000.

Last year, the U.S. added more than 194,000 jobs each month, compared with about 186,000 in 2012. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg on April 4-9 project payroll gains to match those from 2013.

Weather Rebound

A pickup in April employment would follow data this week showing consumers and companies were shaking off winter doldrums.

Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, climbed 0.9 percent in March, the most since August 2009, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Incomes increased by the most in seven months.

Also yesterday, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed factories added employees in April at the fastest pace in four months. Manufacturing expanded the most this year.

Such optimism extends to Ford. Boosted by record profits in North America, the second-largest automaker said it will probably hire more than the 12,000 new workers it promised in its 2011 contract with the United Auto Workers.

“The business has grown faster than we predicted it would in 2011,” Joe Hinrichs, Ford’s president of the Americas, said in an interview on April 30. The company said it hired 2,000 new workers at its factory in Claycomo, Missouri, and that it’s completed about 75 percent of its commitment to hire 12,000 workers by 2015.

Disposable Income

Choice Hotels International, Inc. said employment growth is one reason to be upbeat about the travel industry.

“As we’ve seen employment improve -- and I’m the first one to say it hasn’t moved that much yet, but it’s starting to feel like it is -- that’s going to give us an exaggerated impact based on those folks coming back with jobs and then beginning to travel,” Chief Executive Officer Stephen Joyce said on an April 28 earnings call. “We’re optimistic of that.”

The labor market is far from robust. More than two-thirds of the gauges on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s labor market dashboard are still short of their pre-recession levels. Only payroll growth and layoffs are back to where they were leading up to the last contraction, while measures including the share of long-term unemployed and labor force participation haven’t returned to 2004-07 averages.

Those out of work 27 weeks or longer make up 35.8 percent of all jobless Americans, almost twice the pre-recession average of 19.1 percent. The figure reached a record-high 45.3 percent in April 2010.

Less Participation

Limited job prospects may be discouraging some Americans from seeking work, while retiring baby boomers also leave the labor force. The labor participation rate stands at 63.2 percent, close to a 35-year low of 62.8 percent reached in December and October.

“There’s still a fair amount of labor slack out there, which is the main reason why I think the Fed will continue to stress it’s keeping interest rates low for a considerable period of time,” Credit Agricole CIB’s Carey said. Carey projects the central bank will raise rates in the second half of 2015.

Policy makers at this week’s meeting said the economy is showing signs of picking up and the job market is improving. The Fed’s Open Market Committee pared its monthly asset-buying to $45 billion, its fourth straight $10 billion cut, and said further reductions in “measured steps” are likely.

Gross domestic product rose at a 0.1 percent annualized rate from January through March, compared with a 2.6 percent gain in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department said earlier this week.

“Growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply,” the Fed said this week in a statement following their meeting in Washington. “Household spending appears to be rising more quickly.”

                        Bloomberg Survey

====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================

Date of Release     05/02    05/02    05/02    05/02
Observation         April    April    April    April
----------------------------------------------------
Median                218        8     6.6%     0.2%
Average               216        8     6.6%     0.2%
High Forecast         292       15     6.8%     0.3%
Low Forecast          155        0     6.5%     0.0%
# of replies           94       27       86       52
Previous              192       -1     6.7%     0.0%
----------------------------------------------------
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
4CAST                 220     ---      6.6%     0.2%
ABN Amro              225     ---      6.6%     ---
Action Economics      200        5     6.6%     0.2%
Ameriprise            210        5     6.6%     0.3%
Banca Aletti          195        5     6.6%     ---
Bank of the West      202        5     6.6%     0.2%
Bank of Tokyo         220     ---      6.5%     ---
Bankrate              210     ---      ---      ---
Banorte-IXE           203     ---      6.6%     ---
Bantleon Bank AG      225     ---      6.6%     ---
Barclays              250     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Bayerische LB         220     ---      6.6%     ---
BBVA                  210        6     6.7%     0.1%
Berliner Sparkasse    225     ---      6.7%     0.2%
BMO Capital           200     ---      6.6%     0.2%
BNP Paribas           215     ---      6.7%     0.0%
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
BofA Merrill Lynch    215     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Capital Economics     230     ---      6.6%     0.2%
CIBC World Markets    234     ---      6.6%     0.3%
Citi                  225       15     6.6%     0.3%
CohnReznick           225     ---      ---      ---
Comerica              200     ---      6.6%     ---
Commerzbank AG        200     ---      6.6%     ---
Corporate Knights    ---      ---      6.6%     ---
Credit Agricole       215     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Credit Suisse         200     ---      6.6%     0.2%
CTI Capital           224     ---      ---      ---
Daiwa Securities      200     ---      6.6%     ---
Danske Bank A/S       220        8     6.6%     ---
DekaBank              215     ---      6.6%     0.3%
Desjardins Group      235     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Deutsche Bank         240     ---      6.5%     0.2%
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
DZ Bank               210     ---      6.5%     ---
Fathom Financial      250     ---      ---      ---
First Trust           231        8     6.6%     0.2%
FTN Financial         230     ---      6.7%     0.2%
Goldman, Sachs        220     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Haitong               215        3     6.6%     0.2%
Heartland             220     ---      6.6%     ---
Helaba                200     ---      6.6%     0.2%
High Frequency        185     ---      6.6%     0.2%
HSBC Markets          195        7     6.7%     ---
Hugh Johnson          185        5     6.6%     0.2%
IDEAglobal            225       10     6.6%     0.2%
IHS Global            196     ---      6.7%     0.2%
Informa               250       15     6.7%     0.1%
ING                   220       15     6.6%     0.2%
Intesa Sanpaolo       210     ---      6.6%     0.2%
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
Itau Asset Mgmt       230     ---      ---      ---
J.P. Morgan Chase     220       15     6.6%     0.2%
Janney Montgomery     192        8     6.6%     ---
Jefferies             230       10     6.6%     0.2%
JP Morgan Asset       231     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Landesbank BW         230     ---      6.6%     ---
LinkUp                292     ---      ---      ---
Lloyds                220       10     6.6%     0.3%
Maria Fiorini         205     ---      ---      ---
Market Securities     215     ---      6.6%     ---
MET Capital           204     ---      6.7%     ---
Mizuho Securities     175     ---      6.7%     ---
Moody’s Analytics     225        5     6.6%     0.2%
Morgan Stanley        250       15     6.6%     0.2%
National Bank Finl    210     ---      6.6%     ---
Nationwide            225     ---      6.6%     ---
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
Natixis               210     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Nomura                225       10     6.6%     ---
Nord/LB               195        0     6.6%     0.2%
OSK-DMG               201     ---      6.6%     ---
Oxford Economics      210     ---      6.6%     ---
Pantheon              200     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Paragon Research      225     ---      6.6%     ---
Pierpont Securities   210     ---      6.6%     ---
PineBridge            225     ---      6.7%     0.3%
PNC Bank              200       10     6.6%     0.2%
Prestige Economics    205     ---      6.5%     ---
Raiffeisenbank        225     ---      6.6%     ---
Raymond James         225     ---      6.6%     0.2%
RBC Capital           205     ---      6.6%     ---
RBS Securities        230     ---      6.7%     0.2%
Regions Financial     241       12     6.5%     0.2%
====================================================
5/1/2014          Nonfarm     Manu Unemploy   Hourly
                 Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                   ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
====================================================
Scotiabank            250     ---      6.5%     ---
Societe Generale      220     ---      6.6%     0.3%
Southbay Research     248     ---      ---      ---
Southern Polytech     155     ---      6.6%     ---
Standard Chartered    210     ---      6.6%     0.2%
Sterne Agee           175     ---      6.8%     0.2%
Stone McCarthy        250        8     6.6%     0.2%
TD Securities         227        5     6.6%     0.2%
TrimTabs              242     ---      ---      ---
UBS                   180     ---      6.6%     0.2%
UniCredit             205     ---      6.7%     ---
University of MD      204        5     6.6%     0.2%
Wells Fargo & Co      225     ---      6.7%     ---
Westpac Banking       190     ---      6.6%     ---
Wrightson ICAP        200     ---      6.6%     0.2%
====================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle Jamrisko in Washington at mjamrisko@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Carlos Torres at ctorres2@bloomberg.net Vince Golle

Please upgrade your Browser

Your browser is out-of-date. Please download one of these excellent browsers:

Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Opera or Internet Explorer.