Offshore wind power is set to grow six-fold by 2020, benefiting turbine makers Suzlon Energy Ltd., Vestas Wind Systems A/S and Gamesa Corp. Tecnologica SA, HSBC Holdings Plc said.
Total global installed capacity of wind turbines at sea is forecast to rise to 43 gigawatts by 2020 from 6.5 gigawatts at the end of 2013, the bank said today in an e-mailed report. The U.K., with 11 gigawatts, China with 10 gigawatts and Germany with 7 gigawatts will be the biggest offshore wind markets.
The opportunity for manufacturers “is significant in our view and justifies a strategic long-term focus on the offshore segment,” analysts including Charanjit Singh in Bangalore and Sean McLoughlin in London wrote in the HSBC report. After 2015, “the rapid growth in offshore installations becomes a key to driving growth in wind technology,” they said.
European nations including the U.K., Germany and Denmark are leading a push to develop wind farms at sea, where less opposition from locals allows the erection of larger machines that can reap more power from winds blowing more reliably than on land. It’s part of their effort to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and carbon emissions that cause global warming.
HSBC sees installations totaling 28.5 gigawatts in Europe by 2020, 13.5 gigawatts in Asia and 1 gigawatt in the U.S. That compares with the 41.5 gigawatts that Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts, including 28.3 gigawatts in Europe, 12 gigawatts in Asia and 1.2 gigawatts in the U.S.
At present, Germany’s Siemens AG is the main manufacturer, taking 83 percent of last year’s European market, according to the European Wind Energy Association. It put Suzlon’s Repower unit -- now called Senvion -- in third place on 7 percent.
HSBC looked at the so-called pure-play turbine makers, whose main focus is wind, unlike Siemens, and said it favors Suzlon “given its commercially proven turbine of 6.15 megawatts, which is currently the largest in the market.”
The analysts said Vestas’s venture with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. “has given the necessary momentum” to its development of an 8-megawatt turbine to drive orders from 2015, and Gamesa’s venture with Areva SA means it “should emerge as a relevant offshore competitor in the longer-term.”