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Mexico Peso Volatility Eases as Export Prospects Offset Slowdown

The peso’s implied volatility fell as an improved export outlook for Mexico offset evidence of an economic slowdown.

One-month implied volatility on options for the peso, reflecting projections of price fluctuations, decreased to 8.078 percent at 4 p.m. in Mexico City. The peso fell 0.3 percent to 13.0499 per dollar.

While steady gains in U.S. employment buoyed the prospects for the Latin American nation’s largest trading partner, minutes of last month’s Bank of Mexico meeting indicated that most policy makers said they will need to reduce the 2014 growth forecast from the current range of 3 percent to 4 percent.

“They are factors that run against each other,” Juan Carlos Alderete, a currency strategist at Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB in Mexico City, said by phone. “This helps explain why the peso has had a relatively limited range.”

Economists reduced their 2014 Mexican growth forecast to 3.05 percent from a 3.43 percent outlook in January, according to the median forecast of a biweekly survey published yesterday by Citigroup Inc.’s Banamex unit.

Yields on Mexican peso bonds maturing in 2024 fell two basis point, or 0.02 percentage point, to 6.16 percent today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the securities rose 0.20 centavo to 129.94 centavos per peso.

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